Kenya’s Tumultuous Political Week: Secession Calls and Parallel Celebrations

 

 This week, beginning May 29, 2023, promises to be eventful and dramatic in Kenya's political scene. Major developments are anticipated over the coming hours and days, with Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Alliance at the forefront of political maneuvers. Here’s a breakdown of the unfolding events and their implications:

Azimio’s Parliamentary Group Meeting and Major Announcement

Azimio la Umoja is set to hold a crucial parliamentary group meeting at the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Foundation, with notable attendance, including former President Uhuru Kenyatta. Following the meeting, Azimio has promised a "big announcement," raising anticipation across the political landscape.

Parallel Madaraka Day Celebrations

As Kenya marks Madaraka Day on June 1, Azimio plans to hold parallel celebrations. This counters the Kenya Kwanza government’s official event, which has often struggled with low turnout. The comparison between attendance at these two events will be a reflection of public sentiment and could send a strong message about the state of Kenyan politics.

The Secession Debate

A more contentious issue lies in Azimio's renewed discussions about secession. Although the idea has circulated since 2017, Azimio leader Raila Odinga recently brought the topic to the forefront, sparking debate nationwide. While self-determination is a recognized right, critics argue that such calls could amount to incitement. However, legal experts assert that self-determination is neither treason nor incitement but a legitimate right under international law.

Challenges in Dividing Kenya

One major question is how Kenya could practically be divided, especially given shifting political allegiances. For example, whistleblower data suggests Raila Odinga won in regions like Uasin Gishu, President Ruto's home county. This complicates any straightforward secession narrative, as divisions are no longer geographically clear.

Referendum as a Strategy

Azimio seems to be using secession calls as a strategic move to push for a referendum, which would likely reveal the government's waning public support. A referendum result showing widespread dissatisfaction could undermine the government’s legitimacy, creating pressure for systemic change.

Underlying Message: Open the Servers

At its core, Azimio’s push appears to be a demand for transparency in the disputed election results. By refusing to open the election servers, the government fuels suspicion and dissent. Azimio’s call for a referendum may force a reckoning over the contested results, offering an alternative route to accountability.

Conclusion

This week is pivotal for Kenya, with the potential for dramatic shifts in its political dynamics. From parallel Madaraka Day celebrations to the secession debate, Azimio is challenging the government to confront key issues. While the outcomes remain uncertain, one thing is clear: Kenya’s political landscape is heating up, and the decisions made this week will have far-reaching consequences.