ODM Eldoret Rally: Memories of 2002 And 1997

A colleague of mine has been depressed since yesterday's well-attended ODM rally in Eldoret.

"How could so many people show up? Kenya is finished if they are going to elect those crooks."

I will tell you exactly what I told my anxious colleague.

Hindsight is a good thing because it helps one put things in perspective.

Flashback March 2002; The much-talked-about "marriage" between Raila Odinga's NDP and Kanu had just been consummated. It was clear that this was the party that was going to carry the 2002 general elections. Raila gave a speech about two rivers joining to become one major "unstoppable" river. For all intents and purposes this election was already decided.

But then everybody forgot that the party nominee to be presidential flag bearer had yet to be elected (or rather selected). One day is a long time in politics, let alone a month. At the end of this saga Raila Odinga left Kanu in a huff and joined up with opposition kingpins, Kibaki, Ngilu and the late Kijana Wamalwa to form the National Rainbow Coalition.

Flashback November 1997; Just weeks to the general election presidential candidates presented their papers to the electoral commission. Two presidential hopefuls really impressed in this exercise. NDP's Raila Odinga and SDP's (Social Democratic Party) Charity Kaluki Ngilu. Just looking at the crowds that the two drew, you would be excused for being convinced that one of them would win the elections.

Alas, when the results came in Raila was third and Ngilu a very disappointing fourth. The winner and runner-up both quietly presented their papers wisely leaving their campaign team where they were most useful out there in the constituencies talking to voters, not holding a show for the cameras in the city and spending money on hired hands to impress.

The ODM rally in Eldoret was a huge success but let us bear in mind the following facts;

- It is way too early to start speculating. It is not even a year to the polls yet.

- ODM Kenya and Narc Kenya have clearly shown their strategy, which is similar to the 2002 one. That is using tribal chiefs to popularize the party. There are really no new ideas here. Just the perfect scenario for a third force to come in and strategize knowing full well exactly what to expect. The new third force will have the advantage of surprise and an angry unpredictable electorate.

- Both the ODM and NARC Kenya have started the campaign very early. What will they be telling people in one year's time? By that time they'll be exhausted and the electorate will be sick of hearing the same old things. Again just the perfect scenario for a third force.

I keep on talking about a third force, but what will in fact happen is that the field will be crowded with many other candidates, mostly younger people. By the time the elections arrive, ODM will be in tatters and Narc Kenya will be desperately trying to damage control and keep their sinking boat afloat. Voters will be itching to teach the incumbents a lesson.

If this were a sprint, ODM would have won hands down. If it were a middle distance race Narc Kenya and Kibaki would have won easily. Luckily for Kenya this is a marathon. ODM and Narc have started off at a blistering pace, but there's the long climb ahead and plenty of treacherous terrain ahead. Have no fear this race is still very open

Just remember that this is the first place where you read this prediction, when it comes to pass.

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