Saturday, October 21, 2006

Kenyan Presidential Race: Why Latest Poll Is A Fraud

Somebody somewhere is very determined to push forward Kalonzo Musyoka's candidature for President. Poll after poll has put him way ahead of all other candidates. The strange thing about these polls is that they contradict what we all know about Kenyan politics.

In western countries polls like the Gallup poll have impeccable reputations, which they fiercely guard. Gallup have done such an excellent job over the years that polls are generally taken very seriously these days. The problem is that sometimes people forget that the poll that they are looking at is not a Gallup poll. Indeed it is instructive that the guys who have been churning out these controversial presidential polls tried to affiliate themselves to Gallup without the proper accreditation. Gallup would not have it and to date Steadman remains unaffiliated to Gallup. Chances are high that they are unable to match the standards required.

The biggest question mark about this latest poll is why the option of those unsure has not been included. This would reflect the real picture as my own quick sampling shows that at least 40% of the electorate are unsure of who they are going to vote for. This is understandable because ODM Kenya (no doubt the most popular party currently) has yet to name it's presidential candidate.

The other thing that makes me suspicious is the fact that surveys of this nature are horrendously expensive. So who is financing Steadman's quarterly surveys? Could it be some political grouping? This would make the most sense because the power of surveys like these ones is well known by politicians. The vote will always swing in the direction of the candidate that voters feel is most likely to win.

So the big mystery is who is behind this poll and what message are they so keen on selling to Kenyans. One message that has clearly and consistently come out of this poll is the fact that Kalonzo Musyoka is the most popular opposition candidate. Much more popular than Uhuru Kenyatta and much more popular than Raila Odinga. This does not quite make sense. My quick survey puts both Raila and Uhuru ahead of Kalonzo.

It would probably help us in our attempt to answer some of these questions if we asked ourselves a simple question;

Who would stand to gain the most from Kalonzo Musyoka being the main opposition candidate?

All answers point to President Kibaki's camp. The biggest nightmare amongst the president's handlers is a Uhuru Kenyatta candidature. This would split the massive Kikuyu vote (sorry folks, Kenyans still vote along tribal lines). And this time chances are that it would be in favor of the younger Kikuyu candidate.

But there is even a more compelling reason to keep on pushing Kalonzo Musyoka's name as the most popular opposition candidate. The thinking is that any candidate wining the ODM presidential nomination, other than Raila Odinga will split ODM right down the middle. Those who lean on this kind of thinking are quick to point to the last time that Raila was seeking a presidential nomination. This was in the run up to the 1997 presidential elections. The party was Ford Kenya and Raila was running against the late Michael Kijana Wamalwa. The late former Vice President won that one, but Raila did not want to accept the results and moved on to NDP, the party which he used to stand for President. And he in fact ended up surprising everybody by coming a strong third behind Moi and Kibaki in that order.

The truth of the matter is that once Agwambo has set his sites on something, he is unstoppable, an unstoppable tractor (hence the nickname Tinga). So far Raila is the single presidential hopeful who has spent the most campaigning. Not even President Kibaki comes near. Remember the expensive DSTV ads?

Sadly it is not in the interests of the country to have a Kikuyu/Luo face off for the presidency (see the debate on the Luo versus Kikuyu prejudicial rivalry). By the grace of God this has been avoided so far and should continue to be avoided. Kenya is not yet ready for this, temperatures would run too high and any hope of having an issues-centered campaign would vanish.

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See also the 2 Problem Tribes in Kenyan politics

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Kumekucha General Election Scheduled For End Of October

Kenyans Go To The Polls On October 31st At Kumekucha

Readers of this blog and other Kenyans have a chance to exercise their democratic right here in this blog starting October 31st when we will launch a poll/general election here to find out who is really the most popular Presidential candidate.

To participate, all you need is a functioning email address. The other option will be to leave a comment in this blog specifying your preference. I will try and make this election as issue oriented as possible and there will also be a "none of the above" option.

The main objective is to get all of us Kenyans, including Kumekucha himself focused on issues rather than on personalities and tribes. This usually proves to be increasingly difficult as the elections draw closer.

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Join in the raging debate over this thorny Luo-Kikuyu relationship issue
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See also the 2 Problem Tribes in Kenyan politics

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AG Anglo Leasing Prosecutions: A Lesson From The Devastating Steam Engine

Kenyan AG Amos Wako is some survivor. The proverbial cat with 9 lives, if you like. However it is now very clear that those extra lives are rapidly running out.

As pressure mounts for the government to prosecute some big fish Anglo-Leasing-scandal culprits, Hon Wako has suddenly found himself soaking in most of the pressure.

But before I go into Wako's current problems and where I believe they will lead, it is useful to get the background behind the current situation.

You may not like or enjoy physics, but bear with me for minute as I use this complex scientific subject to illustrate an important point about the Kibaki administration.

For many years steam was used to run trains and major industrial machinery. The concept behind steam engines is in accumulating pressure and then releasing it in a controlled manner to run your engine. The worst and most dangerous thing you can do is to accumulate the pressure for long periods without releasing it. The explosion that will inevitably result will be devastatingly damaging.

President Kibaki's way of running things is to postpone decisions for long periods of time thus accumulating the pressure in this "steam engine" called politics. This is no secret and those who have analyzed the president's management style for many years have often accurately labeled him the "fence seater."

Here is an example to illustrate this point;

When it was clear that President Kibaki was faced with rebellion within his coalition government, he delayed his decision to sack LDP members. Led by Raila "Kibaki Tosha" Odinga, they were the main rebels over the president's failure to honor the infamous memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed before the elections and which was the "glue" that held the fragile coalition government together. By delaying the inevitable, the president built up enormous and unnecessary pressure for himself so much so that when he finally acted, his government almost came crushing down with the unprecedented situation where politicians were turning down cabinet appointments.

Had he acted earlier, it would have been a lot easier to gain public support and sympathy over his decision to rubbish the MOU. LDP would have clearly looked like the "spoilers" drawing first blood in upsetting the opposition unity that had removed Kanu and President Moi from power.

A replica situation is about to play itself out with the Anglo Leasing prosecutions.

This administration has been postponing its' decision to prosecute Goldenberg and Anglo Leasing big fish. Actually decisions have been postponed again and again. Now with the general elections knocking on the door, it is clear that issues of corruption and this government's failure to prosecute the "big fish" will be a major campaign issue. So the pressure that has slowly been allowed to build up is about to explode.

You see the big names that the government is seeking to make sacrificial lambs out of are very powerful people with political and financial clout who will not just sit around and do nothing. Most are already fighting back in anticipation. The result is that we will have one hell of a fall out.

All this would have been avoided if decisions were made much earlier and decisively. As it is, even now the decisions being made at this eleventh hour over this highly sensitive matter are not decisive. One can't help feeling that this entire circus between AG Amos Wako and Anti-corruption boss, Aaron Ringera is a gimmick to buy time and delay prosecutions indefinitely.

Currently the main "pressure valve" holding all the "steam" in place is one Amos Wako. What are the chances of him surviving when the inevitable explosion happens?

You tell me.

Join in the raging debate over this thorny Luo-Kikuyu relationship issue
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