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Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Medieval Politics: Leaflets and Rent-a-Mouth

That the more things change the more they remain the same wouldn’t have been more apt adage in describing the Government’s desperate move to lift itself out of the deep hole it plunged into. Alfred Mutua has re-invented his Turbo-charged mouth in creative leaflets authored to EDUCATE Kenyans on the merits of media censorship.

True, desperate moments calls for desperate measures. But Mutua and his masters must have been blinded by their cheap optimism that Kenyans will buy their gimmick. Granted, the media is not without blemish but no leader ever successfully fought the fourth estate. Only in Kenya can politicians shamelessly re-invent the non-circular wheel and ride on the falsehood. If anything, the global time–tested and tried practice of media self-regulation militates against speedy economic returns.

We are back to political medieval times. What with rent a mouth youths on the ready to congratulate the king on how immaculately he is dressed in his birthday suit. Now we understand that not only here at Kumekucha do we have easily excitable Kenyans. They are in good company ready with oiled lips and joints to dance themselves lame to old lyrics from a broken record.

There are leaders and spineless politicians. Forget the hollow defence from Kibaki’s apologists that he did what he had to do after the MPs handed him the bill. There is leadership and responsibility and above all else having the hindsight to act in tandem with national mood. A responsible parent will not serve a hungry kid poison to calm him down.

Impunity patented
One Lucy must be still be enjoying her sleep after receiving the sweetest and most priceless New Year present from her sweetheart. Her nocturnal escapade at the newsroom has been taken a notch higher and what is more, it is LEGAL. That is a personal war won at the altar of royal expediency. The media must be ruing their antics to paint ogres in all the rainbow colours.

Signing the Communication Bill amounts to institutionalizing our pricey national vice of IMPUNITY. Kenya has her gate keepers and damn the IDP families who are spoiling the party in demanding decent burial to their loved ones. True entrepreneurship includes doing commerce with corpses. And why not expand the virtue if carpenters can do it honestly at the lower end?

But Kenyans must remain realistic and alive to the truism that no progress can come out a leadership singularly defined by deception. Fraud begets only more fraud and its derivatives. We are back to the starting point and the torturous circular journey continues. We better sample the Arabic wisdom in having smart mouths that never invite stinking flies by knowing when to shut up.

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Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Media Bill Controversy: Oh Boy, It Was A Blunder After All!

In the days of retired president Daniel arap Moi, every move he made was analyzed and re-analyzed to try and figure out what he was up to. And true enough a few weeks later or even a few months later it suddenly became clear what Moi's game plan was.

It is emerging (and has just dawned on yours truly) that the biggest mistake political analysts in Kenya are making these days, including this blogger is to attempt to analyze the political moves of one Emilio Stanley. How do you analyze blunders?

Take the signing of the recent controversial bill aimed at clipping the wings of the media ahead of the post election violence trials. Why would Alfred Mutua suddenly wake up one morning and start distributing anti-media leaflets on the streets of Nairobi? (Nairobians just glanced at them and threw them down, littering the clean streets of Nairobi.) Is this not a clearly an attempt at damage control after the blunder has already happened?

If truth be told, Emilio Stanley Mwai Kibaki will go down in history as the most blundering president Africa has ever had. Can you think of another one? (Even Idi Amin with his broken English was decisive and made very few mistakes). If you review the Kibaki administration right from the day one, it is a long, boring, repetitive chronicle of political mistakes and blunders.

So what is the big deal? After all human is to err one would say. Sadly it is not as simple as that in this case. The problem we have here is that the Kenyan presidency is so powerful that the consequences of a single blunder can be catastrophic, let alone several in a row. Take the big mistake made to go ahead with the referendum in 2005? That mistake led to the fiasco of December 2007 than left thousands of Kenyans dead (the official figure is still sic hundred and something. Huh!!!) and hundreds of thousands homeless. I have asked several times in this blog what the cost of stealing an election is and nobody has dared to venture to give a figure. Actually it runs into billions and the bills are still piling up even as you read this.

The tragedy of Kenya today is that the country is stuck with a weak, indecisive blundering leader who has got powers in his hands that young King Mswati (of Swaziland) and King Charles (before Cromwell) would envy. The kind of powers that have made his predecessors often confuse themselves with God. Now giving that power to a blundering politicin who has made a career out of NOT making decisions is more than tragic. It is almost like leaving a child with a loaded revolver.

The bottom line, my sources assure me, is that the president did not expect the kind of troubles that he now has in his hands when he signed the Kenya Communications act last Friday afternoon. Just like he did not expect the troubles we saw in January when he made the decision to steal the election.

What will he do next without fully appreciating the consequences?

Kazi iendelee wacha wale wanataka kuropoka waropoke

Could this story about the sacking of journalists over the media bill be true? I was not able to verify from my sources at the time of making this post. But I am still digging around and will get back to you guys.

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Monday, January 05, 2009

Kibaki And Raila: Two Jokers Who Want To Sink The Country Back Into The Abyss














This past weekend has been the most eventful politically for a very long time. In a way we have opened 2009 in much the same way we opened 2008 with a lot of fear and anxiety flying around—amongst those who can read politics pretty fast. Although this time there is no bloodshed (at least not yet).

Those who think that this is just about the Kenya Communications bill signed by the president last Friday need to think again.

Fascinating whispers are emerging and as the saying goes that there is no smoke without fire, Kenyans cannot dare to afford to ignore what is being whispered. There is too much at stake for us to simply sit back and ignore “the rumours.”

Interim Military Government Will Be PNU’s Bargaining Chip - Shocking Whispers From Insiders Claim

Firstly it is emerging that the signing of the said controversial bill, that the media is up in arms against and which has triggered off the heat with the coalition government unity now quivering and threatening to collapse, was timed perfectly. It is no accident that the bill was signed late Friday. Meaning that those holding the carefully choreographed plan in their hands have had time through the weekend to take in all the reactions and intent of all those they are watching carefully who could not take any real action until today (Monday) and were therefore doing a lot of talking instead. ODM have brought forward their crisis meeting over their future in the coalition to today.

Secondly the provocative act of signing the bill has been done at a time when no electoral commission exists. According to the national accord in the event that the coalition collapses it can only be replaced by an interim government pending elections. The fact that we do not have an election body in place and the major players are already squabbling over the composition of an interim one means that no elections can be held in a hurry. Then we have the President’s men who insist in private that the Kenyan constitution is supreme and in the event that the coalition government was to collapse, then the president can re-constitute a new government on his own because he is the “duly elected president.” Let us stop before you start getting dizzy because as a commentator pointed out in the last post, this is a legal minefield where lawyers from both sides can argue until the chickens come home without coming anywhere near a consensus.

In short the intention behind the signing of the media bill was to re-assert the president’s authority as the sole executive power in the land and to bring an end to the coalition government, having carefully laid plans already in place. As you read this reports are filtering in to me that the government is circulating anti-media leaflets on the streets of Nairobi.

Further whispers that may sound far-fetched insist that the PNU side of government will propose the compromise of having a military government as an interim government until elections are to be held. This will be done knowing fully well how Kenyans fear and loath a military administration which the country has managed to avoid thus far, save for the 30 minute administration of air force Senior Private Hezekiah Ochuka on 1st August 1982. The idea is to have Kenyans surrender themselves to the grand PNU plan.

Now the most dangerous thing in all this circus are the two principals. If Kenyans were to be honest with themselves, there is very little difference between the two (Kibaki and Raila) and 2 selfish, spoilt kindergarten kids refusing to give an inch as they punch each others noses bloody in a nursery school yard. None of the two are interested in the greater good of the country because if they were, both would resign and pave way for more neutral Kenyans to take over the reigns of power. As it is Kibaki is determined to rule until 2012 and Raila is determined to be the next president. If Kenyans die as they play their war games who cares?

Wacha wale wanataka kupigana wapigane.”

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Sunday, January 04, 2009

I Announce My Intent To Form An Exploratory Committee

I trust we've all rested and are ready for hard work this new year.

As the year begins, we must all be on notice that there is no time to waste. We must now move with deliberate speed and put in place a formula for measuring our progress on a periodic basis. Obviously many within the Diaspora and within our beloved nation will want to know how we proceed. To this end, I announce today my intent to form an exploratory committee. Like usually happens in the States, this committee, which must start its work on the 10th and report back its findings by January 25th, will be tasked to study the logistical and all other issues we will face in our quest to win Kenya back from the oligarchies and the power cartels that have stagnated the progress and cohesion of our nation.

If anybody still doubted the intransigence of this government, all you have to do is look at the signing of the media bill. I was assured by an authoritative source that it wouldn't be signed. Raila was assured by an even higher authority that it wouldn't be assented to. Kalonzo was given the assurance that it would be returned to Parliamnet for further deliberation. How good is these people's word? Right from Kibaki down to the last scoundrel in his State House, their word is worth crap. In fact, I was so infuriated by the assent that when I was woken up by my frantic wife Hellen about the breaking news in Mombasa, where the President was on vacation, I picked up the phone and called my authoritative source. Can you imagine my disgust when he told me that a KTN programme that catalogued Kibaki's Coup was the reason some strategists around him used to box him into assenting to the bill?

The question now is not what this bill means. The question is what is the intention of the folks who so desperately wanted to see it signed. I must warn that what is going on is the beginning of another round of rigging. The power barons around Kibaki have set in motion an elaborate plan to deny the nation a president the people will have elected in 2012. Under this scenario, what these folks hope to do is rig, then beat and terrorize us into submission, under the guise of state security...which will force the minister in charge of internal security to invoke this very law Kibaki has now signed. The effect will be a total blackout as Kibaki's preferred heir is installed as President of Kenya. By the time the ban is lifted, we will have a new President.

No, folks. We must defeat this plan. The exploratory committee will give us a detailed report on the range of scenarios our opponents might throw at us. I will bring them to you here at Kumekucha, leaving out what will constitute the classified strategic plan.

The folks around President Kibaki have a knack for making Kenya look very bleak indeed. Just when you thought a new year might make things better, that common sense might prevail, they make things even worse. Did they have to coax Kibaki into opening a new year with a big fight? What's his assent to this bill a signal of? Dramatic impunity? And suddenly Raila and the ODM want to fight for the media? These guys should all go to the caves where they belong and let us build a Kenya that will work for all of us, not just for them. By the way, if he was so pissed at Kibaki, why was he in Mombasa eating a pumpkin pie with him? Or was he called to hoodwink Kenyans one more time like he did with unga? This man is reaching a point where he's beginning to look pitiful.

It's a lot I've had to say, but the big deal here is that an exploratory committee is in place in the next few days. We are going to work with speed, but we shall not rush anything. You never beat a dug in power structure like the one we have in Kenya by screaming out your plans.

When they see what we do, they'll know they are finally facing a worthy opponent. A fight they shall have.

Let's get ready!

Why The Media Bill Is The Beginning of The End For Kibaki And Raila

Based on lots of insider information

This is one of the numerous angry sms messages I received from my contacts mad as hell that any sane President of Kenya would sign any legislation similar to the Kenya Communications (Amendment) Act signed last Friday.

The said SMS read;

Greek proverb: When the gods want to destroy you—they first make you mad with power.

I cannot agree more. As you read this Prime Minister Raila Odinga has called a crisis meeting of all ODM legislators to reassess the party’s "standing in Government" this Wednesday.

But rather than join the well orchestrated campaign by the media against this bill (which affects the mainstream media the most) let us try to analyze this whole situation from a neutral point of view.

The main aim of this post is to get inside the thinking of the major players here. In reaching my conclusions I have been greatly assisted by insider information from mostly impeccable sources.

Let us start with a brief history of where this bill came from. The initial idea was born, bred and nurtured right at the heart of State House Nairobi. This is very important to grasp and you will realize why as you read on.

The first time the bill was presented in parliament during the tenure of the 9th parliament it sailed through. The media and other stakeholders appealed to the president not to sign it. The president faced with a general election where things were not going too well (to put it mildly) listened to the voters and refused to sign the said bill. And that would have been the end of it. However something happened in January last year that changed everything. So am I linking post election violence to the decision by the president to sign the bill into law? The answer is YES.

It is rather obvious that one of the reasons why ODM popularity swept across the country in the run up to the general elections of 2007 had a lot to do with the media. While the Kibaki administration has been very careful to ensure that it has a reasonably good control of the media in the country, including influencing the appointments of CEOs to major media houses, the president’s advisors watched in horror as this control was wrested from their hands. I need to explain exactly how that happened in a simple way that non-experts in media and the art of propaganda can understand.

Opinion polls are very powerful and can tilt any election. So when you control those as well as the bulk of newspaper circulation in the run up to a presidential election, you should be okay. And this was the thinking amongst PNU strategists. But of course their undoing is that they are all old school in a world that is changing too rapidly to analyze.

Take the following scenario that I personally witnessed. The newspapers, TV and opinion polls all say that a certain presidential candidate is the most popular in Kisii. A native of the area reading this at first believes it. After all it is printed in the newspapers and so it must be true. But he has a cell phone so he makes a few calls back home and is shocked at the report he receives. It is a total contradiction to what he has read in the media. And so he sends out a few sms messages and when he goes for a drink in the evening he tells his friends what he has observed. Word spreads fast. Meanwhile the newspaper that has been infiltrated and is reporting only what certain powerful people want to see reported starts experiencing problems of dropping circulation. There seems to be a shift to the rival media which also has certain vested interests. Then to make matters worse we have the World Wide Web. For Kenyans in the Diaspora this is their most convenient tool for obtaining news of what is really going on back home. The people who are on the web are very few, but my oh oh my are they influential!!! They call back home frequently and they talk to their people… and they influence them like hell.

Meanwhile something else is happening. Frustrated journalists in the mainstream media who have a conscience are quietly leaking the articles that cannot be published in the mainstream media (because of the said powerful people) on the web. And some sites are really influential and have a very wide and growing audience.

Within a short time things change dramatically. The circulation of a certain newspaper falls like a heavy stone while that of the other rises dramatically. In desperation the editors of the leading newspaper suffering circulation losses start copying the headlines of the rival paper and are amazed at how high their circulation jumps back up when they report favorably on the rival political party their bosses are up against. A clear indicator as to who is more popular on the ground.

Let me stop there and fast forward to the period after the post-election violence. Those in State House realize that control of the media was wrested from their hands and that their rival won because he was able to “manipulate” the media. They swear that that must never happen again. And so the said bill gathering dust in some shelf is retrieved and dusted and re-introduced. You know the rest of the story.

Now there is one more alarming piece of information.

PNU insiders have been talking for months about the breaking up of the coalition government. Contrary to what many Kenyans think, the collapse of the coalition does not alarm PNU insiders. In fact they look forward to it happening. Already the factors that led to the Kalenjin and Luo sticking together during and after the elections have changed. So if the coalition were to collapse today we will not see any bloodshed.

And forget what the act of parliament that made the coalition possible said. The Constitution of Kenya is still supreme and supersedes everything else. So if ODM were to walk out of the coalition next week, the president will simply form a new government (with those who want to play ball) and life will continue. PNU insiders will certainly be more comfortable with that scenario. But I doubt whether ODM will walk out. I think they will just huff and puff and stay exactly where they are. Observant Kenyans know why.

So is the Kenya Communications (Amendment) Act good or bad for the country? It has some really good parts that will promote the rapid growth of the ICT sector. But mostly it is a law that goes against the very basic principals of the constitution that promote free speech and a free media. But who cares? You see there are other factors that have now taken centre stage.

The question Kenyans should be asking is; Can Kibaki and Raila survive this?

My two cents? I don’t think so

Why? I hear you ask.

The reason is simple. Kenyans are very much awake and at the moment they are fed up with the political class (both PNU and ODM) and when you add other factors like the looming serious famine, every time I try to look into the future I shut my eyes tightly in horror.

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Friday, January 02, 2009

Breaking News: Kibaki Signs Controversial Media Bill Into Law

President Mwai Kibaki has just made history a few minutes ago by signing the latest controversial media bill into law. He officially goes into history books as the most hostile president to the media in the history of Kenya and East indeed Africa. During his tenure so far a record number of bills aimed at curtailing media freedom have been introduced in parliament. It was also during Kibaki's first tenure that the Standard raid happened. Not even during the darkest hours of Moism did anything close to that raid (that involved the burning of newspapers) happen.

The signing of the bill into law confirms early reports that this blogger received that the President has in fact all along been the originator and real sponsor of all the media bills and more so this latest one which was also passed by the 9th parliament but as elections were around the corner Kibaki bulked to pressure and refused to sign it. The same bill was re-introduced into the house at record speeds and hurriedly passed just before Christmas last year.

With the president's signature it becomes law.

In effect what has now happened is that it has become much more difficult for any Kenyan to get any information through the media. This is a day for great celebrations amongst the political class and impunity in Kenya has won really big. I will be doing a deeper analysis of the effects of this draconian bill (that would have made even the evil apartheid government of pre-Mandela South Africa blush) later into the weekend.

Remember to say a prayer for Kenya tonight before you sleep.

P.S. Now that it is clear that the main stream press will never publish anything about scandals in a hurry as a result of the new law, let me just reveal the name of the company that was at the centre of the recent artificial fuel shortage in Kenya. It is Oilibya. More information to follow as I verify a few more facts.

Thursday, January 01, 2009

Open Letter To Raila Odinga: WHY?

Dear Chris,

I hope you will have the guts to publish my letter. I want to believe that you are still the old fearless Kumekucha who never fears to publish anything even when it paints you in poor light. In case you did not know, that is the one single thing most responsible for making Kumekucha great.

I have watched with growing alarm as my beloved Kumekucha has taken on the task of wanting to bring down Raila Odinga, the next president of Kenya. Why Chris? Who has paid you? Please answer your most loyal old readers and tell us truthfully what is happening here.

Having said that please publish the following open letter to Prime Minister Raila Odinga.


Open Letter To The Prime Minister

Your right honorable Prime Minister Sir,

Please allow me a few minutes to point out a few things that beg for some urgent explanation. I must say that these issues I am about to point out have left you, the true winner of the 2007 presidential polls in a very vulnerable position that makes it very difficult for we your staunch die-hard supporters to explain to your critics. Some people like Kumekucha even seem to have taken advantage of the situation to attack you openly when the blog supported you to the hilt in the run up to the fateful elections in December 2007 and after.

1. This year Jacinta Mwatela, a very brave woman who was the acting governor of the Central Bank was sacked and replaced by an arrogant man who happens to come from the same tribe as the President Kibaki. You Mr. Prime Minister did NOT utter a single word? Does that mean that you supported this sacking? I am sure you realize that those powerful forces who wanted her out, wanted her out for a good reason. And that is to be able to continue “stealing” from the people. You see she blew the whistle about a matter that has now gone very quiet all of a sudden. I note you have been very vocal about the media bill in recent weeks and even about the Waki report earlier where you have disagreed even with members of your own party and I do not doubt your courage. So why were you silent on the Mwatela issue?

2. Rumours are flying around which Chris of Kumekucha can confirm for us if it is true, to the effect that many of your best advisors Mr Prime Minister, those who guided you through that most difficult of times at the beginning of this year, have left you. People like Salim Lone who was feted here in Kumekucha for his “spin expertise” that had PNU reeling. It is whispered that most of these people have fallen out with you because they have become disillusioned when you abandoned the vision and promise you had told Kenyans you would fulfill once you were in power. It is even whispered that the most disgusting thing that happen was when PNU strategists cheated you with the motorcade and Recce GSU unit. They say that you abandoned the porfolio balance demands the minute those guys in suits started running after your car. So was the ODM dream all about a motorcade? Please explain to me your humble loyal supporter because people out here as posing such questions and I am not able to answer.

3. It is said that some of the most sickening corruption crimes have been committed by ODM ministers. Hon Kajwang gave away work permits at the rate hot madazis are distributed in Burma open air market(near the City Stadium). When we all know that Kenyans abroad have to sweat blood and tears to obtain this valuable document in the UK, Europe and other countries, even neighboring Tanzania. Your right honorable, you said nothing and did not even as much as "slap Kajwang in the wrists".

Then the latest and most sickening was when your Hon William Ruto deliberately delayed importing maize so that Kenyans are now dying with hunger. Hon Ruto just saw the profits he would make and did not think much of starving ordinary Kenyans. Sir, still you said nothing. Why? Is this what our ODM dream was all about? For ODMers to get into government and behave exactly the same way as the PANUA mongrels and in some wasy worse?

4. During the recent Jamhuri day celebrations when Kenyans demonstrating on behalf of us all were arrested for merely wearing black T-shirts, you Mr Prime Minister did nothing and said nothing. In fact you were seen at one point having a discussion aside with the Speaker of the National Assembly Kenneth Marende and President Kibaki. What were you discussing? How to continue arresting innocent Kenyans and stop massive revolt against your grand coalition government? Please sir, we your people need answers.

5. Sir, you did a good thing when you promised Kenyans a cheap packet of maize meal Unga to be sold to poorer Kenyans who are the majority. But where is the Unga? Where can it be purchased? Even after the big announcement that the Unga is available, we are still buying this vital commodity at very high prices. Please assist sir.

6. Your excellency, you witnessed the recent ODM elections. Where you even created extra posts (Kanu-style) to ensure that you keep both Ruto and that useless Mudavadi in the party. In your view sir, were these elections really democratic? Is this a glimpse into the kind of "democratic change" you were talking about in the run up to the elections in December 2007 and which a number of Kenyans died for? I will accept to be corrected sir, but please tell me what you personally think.

7. Last but certainly not least, your Excellency the right honorable Prime Minister of Kenya. Your own son Raila Junior was involved in a serious road accident with children of other “big people”. They were all very drunk and racing when the accident occurred. You have said nothing about this irresponsible behaviour and what worries me most is the fact that your children now seem to mingle freely with the children of those who helped steal the election from you last December. In my view there should be a very clear distinction between those people and us, the people who are in bado mapabano mode for Kenya. Does this also mean that your son like the other sons of big people is now above the law?

In conclusion sir, let me make it quite clear that I am still your staunch supporter and will vote for you in 2012 (because there is nobody else, let nobody be cheated). However it is important that you address the issues I have brought up in this open letter to you, before it is too late. Sir, you know how politics changes fast and we do not want ODM to be a skeleton of it’s old self in the next elections.

Your humble die-hard supporter,
ODM Damu.

Guest post by ODM Damu

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