Impeccable sources have just informed me that President Kibaki is under immense pressure from the international community to resign the presidency. They have bluntly told him that they will not accept his victory or the government he may want to form as a legitimate one.
Major world powers are in no mood to have millions of Kenyans flocking into Western capitals seeking asylum and are extremely anxious that Kenya does not explode into another Sudan or Somalia.
However the radicals in the Kibaki regime will not want to let go of power that easily. For this reason it is expected that the announcement from the ECK will take a long time because the electoral body is receiving instructions directly from State House.
In my view, one good thing that is coming out of all this crisis is that Kenyans and the International community are getting to know President Kibaki's true character and moral standing. For a long time it has been assumed that the old man is wise and honorable and only gets into trouble because of some of the characters surrounding him. The world (including my Dad who still thinks Kibaki is a good man) are about to find out the terrible truth.
Kenyans handed over the reigns of power peacefully and in good faith to Kibaki some 5 years ago today. Now Emilio Stanley Mwai Kibaki does not seem to care how many Kenyans die as long as he remains in State House. I am happy that history will give a true judgement of the man. Interestingly Moi handed over power peacefully, so what is so special about Kibaki? Why is it that he wants this to be viewed as a tribal issue when it is clearly a very personal issue about the true character and patriotism of the man Mwai Kibaki?
Kenyans should not be cheated that the decision is in the hands of Samuel Kivuitu (the ECK chairman). The truth is that he is waiting for instructions from State House.
It is difficult to tell at this point whether an exit strategy is being worked out (Moi is said to be in Germany and it is quite possible that Kibaki could announce his resignation from outside Kenya, if common sense prevails) or the President will decide to dig in and fight to hang on to power.
We'll keep you posted.
P.S. Rumours have been flying from yesterday that the press were told to prepare for a quick swearing in of President Kibaki at State house for a second term early this morning, shortly after Kivuitu announces him the winner. My personal view is that this is just a rumour. If it is indeed true then Kenyans should brace for major blood shed if such a thing happens. I will provide a detailed analysis later of why my view and that of many observers is that this is not trouble that Maj Gen Hussein Ali can quell and keep under a control with a few threatening statements and heavy security presence countrywide. Nobody has enough security personnel to stop an idea whose time has come.