Drowning Ruto Opts for the Samson Option

Update: Empty political showboating
Ruto's spin doctors have defrauded him big time and he must demand a full refund. The political showboating that was cleverly crafted to deflect public attention has succeeded in doing the exact opposite. First Ruto did not meet ICC chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo who was in London when Ruto visited The Hague and his evasive and contemptuous answer to the press (Taxi operator reference) was proof enough.

The Eldoret North MP would have saved his money by meeting the ICC team already in Kenya. The propaganda coup has backfired and Ruto has lent more credence to his impeding indictment after unwittingly showing his hand out of naivety and self-guilt.He derided ICC to be toothless until 2090 and his outburst on Waki Commission's report and KNHRC is the sturdy rope his neck desperately needed.
There is nothing more powerful than the voices of the dead crying to the almighty from the ground. Remember the Cane and Abel saga in the good book? The truth of the matter in Kenya is that there are tons of Kenyans crying for justice. The post election troubles of 2008 claimed close to 5000 souls (Kumekucha figures) although official figures claim slightly above 600. The vast majority of these souls were innocent. And that is not counting all the innocent Kenyans before that who were sent to an early grave courtesy of one Jomo Kenyatta and Daniel arap Moi. Or the ones who were denied being brought up by a father.

God also says in his good book that vengeance is his. Not that the down-trodden of Kenya would have any means of exacting their own revenge.
This is the only way I can begin to understand what seems to be unfolding before our very eyes on the Kenyan political scene. It is all too shocking to fanthom. And yet it is happening.

Firstly the political class in broad daylight enthusiastically passed a constitution that would put them in serious trouble (as is already beginning to happen). It is important to note that those in our political class are many things BUT they are NOT fools. Indeed some of the most intelligent, smart and best educated Kenyans are in politics today. It still beats me how nobody in this bunch of smarts saw that passing the new constitution would come back to haunt them big time. I honestly couldn’t believe my eyes when the likes of George Saitoti so enthusiastically drummed up support for the new katiba. Just watch what happens next to the good old professor. HINT:- plenty of skeletons will emerge from the man’s closet.

Political showboating
Now even before we can analyze all the drama unfolding in Kenya at the moment with big shots falling like dominoes as their colleagues shake uncontrollably in their boots wondering where the axe is going to fall next, a totally unexpected twist has been thrown into the mix. Eldoret North legislator who was right inside the engine room of trouble when the post election violence of early 2008 broke, has chosen to bare all to the ICC. Effectively Ruto (with the help of his lawyers) spent the marathon sessions recently with the chief prosecutor Luiz Moreno Ocampo delivering damning evidence against the two principals. In effect Ruto’s defense is that he was only reluctantly following instructions from his superiors who are guiltier than he is.

If you are sitting there thinking that the two principals will sit and let events take their own course then you have another think coming. One of the very valuable pieces of evidence in the possession of one of the principals are recordings of cell phone conversations Ruto made with others on the ground during the violence. These kind of recordings are not admissible in a court of law in Kenya, however the ICC is something else and these are the kind of recordings that Ocampo would love to get his hands on.

Then there are the court cases now rapidly catching up with Ruto. Indeed the way things are going Ruto could be behind bars long before we hear from the ICC. Which would imply that Ruto knowing that he was going down opted not to go down alone but bring down everybody else with him, especially the high and mighty (namely the two principals who seem to have given instructions that his court cases now proceed with speed).

Fascinating stuff guys. Terribly fascinating stuff.

Ruto lawyer details planned defence at the Hague that is based on prosecuting the two principals first

When Ruto started running out of options

Leading car dealers Mombasa

Kwaheri Bwana Ruto

Why is it that cases against suspended higher education minister William Ruto have been held at bay for such a long time and yet suddenly all of them have emerged out of the woodwork and have come back to haunt him big time? Was somebody holding the dogs off all this time and has now gotten out of the way? As it is Ruto is going to be very busy in court cases over the next couple of months (he has at least two major ones locally).
These are just some of the many questions Kenyans are now asking themselves as the Hague finally begins to catch up with some pretty big fish in Kenya (as has been predicted in this blog amid jeering, for a very long time now).

But for my post today I will focus on the lessons those who come after Ruto must take from from the story of this man. Ili iwe funzo kwa wengine. Ruto’s big mistake is that he got way too cocky after killing one giant too many. The first giant who fell to his knees in front of Ruto was one retired President Daniel arap Moi. The Kalenjins take their leaders very seriously and for many years the word of Moi was law in the community. Ruto dared to challenge that and won. His stunning victory for Raila and ODM in the 2007 general elections in Rift Valley will be analyzed for many years to come.

Next he challenged his own ally the mighty leader of ODM Raila Odinga and not only became a thorn in the flesh to Odinga for a long time, but to the surprise of some who worship Raila and believe he is nor ordinary mortal, Ruto did not suddenly fall dead and die (although he has lost a lot of weight since he went against Raila. In the end it was all too much, for the man whose quick road to glory started at the jobless corner near Hilton hotel, and it went into his head. Ruto decided to challenge for the ultimate price, the presidency of the republic of Kenya. According to his calculations he had a good chance to fell the constitution during the recent referendum and that would have uplifted his image tremendously. There was one big problem with the decision. It went against his biggest most powerful and yet secret allies, those close to President Kibaki. That is where the man’s real protection from prosecution had been coming from all along. And shortly thereafter the deal was off. And so it was just a matter of time before things started catching up with the Eldoret North legislator. It was as simple as that.

I am not sure if Ruto also saw the fact that the new constitution if passed was going to dramatically change the politics in Rift valley. The sum effect is that Ruto as self-proclaimed king of the Kalenjin would suddenly lose a lot of his clout. Let me explain. Before the current constitution Kenyan politics was based on constituencies. Boundaries for these were greatly fiddled with by former President Moi. Just to give a single example. Eldoret is divided in such a way as to make sure that all the three constituencies hive off a part of Eldoret town. The motive was to ensure that Eldoret Town was never allowed to be a constituency on its’ own because there has always been enough influence and numbers there to ensure a Kikuyu legislator elected. Now with the counties, although the boundaries are yet to be finalized, you can be sure that there will be plenty of counties within the Rift valley that will be headed by Kikuyu governors. Counties will influence constituency politics and not the other way round. In any event counties will take the focus away from tribes to where it should be, to development efforts and plans within specific counties. In other words the need for a tribal chief like Ruto to “fight for the rights of the community” have been dramatically diminished. Hopefully forever.

Much has been said about the new constitution and many skeptics told us here that it would hardly change anything. I was ridiculed for my child-like enthusiasm during the promulgation of the new constitution. A few weeks later the writing is on the wall. Big fish are facing trial in our courts, as you read this a man is in trouble for holding a woman’s backside without her permission and faces some serious charges (na mambo bado). Let me just say one thing. The written law of the land is a very powerful thing. You can fight for your rights until the cows come home but when there is no written law to back you, chances are you will not have much success. Now everything has changed. The new constitution by itself is a juggernaut trudging forward at increasing speed and it cannot be stopped. Be careful folks even as you enjoy the discomfort of the big fish because even small fish with bad manners like treating women like trash are on very thin ice now.

But then this post is about Ruto so I don’t want to go too far off from the man.

To his credit Ruto has seen trouble coming when it is still very far in the horizon. The main aim of his current expensive trip to the Hague was to give his lawyers an opportunity to feel around and see what kind of evidence Ocampo has against him. He wants to prepare his defense early. And contrary to what some Kenyans are speculating, the International courts at the Hague do not have plea bargain options where you plead guilty to a lesser offence or give the prosecution valuable evidence in return for a lighter sentence.

How close is Ruto to the famous song bird Emily Kosgey? If they are as close as the rumours have it, then he will need plenty of music (like King Saul) to sooth his troubled soul over the next few months or so.

Kwaheri bwana Ruto.

P.S. I predicted in this blog some time back that Ruto would finish Raila politically before his own demise. Well, it seems I was wrong about that one. But then who would have predicted the amazingly unexpected turn of events over the last few months. Who would have predicted that kenyans would have a new constitution long before Christmas 2010? Still my apologies. I was wrong. Umesikia Bwana Phil?

What you and other Kenyans never knew about the Kalenjins

Ruto winds up talks with Ocampo

Kumekucha extra:

1. Sticker being prepared for the exit of Mwai Kibaki reads; End of the 2nd error

2. Only in Kenya......do we use the word 'politics' to describe the process so well: Poli' in Latin meaning 'many' and 'tics' meaning 'bloodsucking creatures'.