Shocking inside stories and the Bashir puzzle

What were the political objectives behind the Bashir visit to Kenya during the recent promulgation of the new constitution?

What analysts and insiders have to say is so fascinating that it almost borders on the bizarre.

President Al Bashir of Sudan in Nairobi for the promulgation of the new constitution

But first some shocking inside information. President Al Bashir left Kenya very hurriedly after the ceremony at Uhuru Park and although he came in through Wilson Airport, he left via the Moi Air base using the presidential jet. His own jet was left idling on the runaway at Wilson airport where unconfirmed reports indicate that a trap to attempt to arrest him had been set. It is not clear who may have been behind this gallant move to arrest Bashir but there are claims that the Americans were heavily involved (unofficially because they never signed the Rome statute). But this raises more questions than answers including the big one. Would it be possible to “unofficially” arrest a visiting head of state who has been invited by the host nation?

Anyway nagging questions aside, all this happened after the military were instructed to cut down dramatically on their rehearsed parade so that the function would be speeded up and completed much earlier. It is believed the main reason was to ensure Al Bashir’s safe exit out of Kenya. Some insiders go as far as saying that Kibaki was advised by NSIS chief Michael Gichangi that there were plans under way to attempt to arrest Al Bashir. The panic from this news is what is said to have caused the military parade and the ceremony to be cut short. Bashir was then smuggled out of Uhuru Park to State House and on to Moi Air Base Eastleigh for a quick flight back to Khartoum. He skipping the state luncheon and abandoned his own plane at Wilson Airport.

Not forgetting that Wilson airport was shut down for the first time in the history of the country solely for the use of President Al Bashir.

Skeptics who dispel the whole story about the behind the scenes drama over the basher story are hard pressed to explain why he entered and exited the country at different points.

Now the big question here is why would somebody take all this trouble caused by the invitation of a single guest to Nairobi? What would make all this trouble worth it? What was the main political objective?

There is mounting evidence that the Bashir visit was aimed at discrediting the ICC and its’ efforts to get to the bottom of the 2007 post-election violence that left so many Kenyans maimed raped and dead. Some of the chief perpetuators of the crimes against humanity committed mainly in January 2008 after the stolen election of late December are senior people in government who are very close to the president and he is keen that they are let off the hook. Hence all the Bashir acrobatics to score pints against the ICC and create an impression of how toothless they are. It is interesting to note that ICC special prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo revealed during one of his visits into the country that the ICC’s intervention had blocked Bashir from a planned visit to Uganda at the request of President Yoweri Museveni. Bashir’s toothy constant grin to the cameras in Nairobi was no doubt mainly for the benefit of the ICC. Bashir was telling them, “catch me if you can.”

More interestingly most political analysts agree that the plan worked and that indeed a lot of thunder has been stolen from the tempo created by ICC more so recently when they fully set up shop in the country to prepare for the impending prosecutions. These analysts insist that this master political stroke by Kibaki will be difficult to reverse and will have an impact on the planned prosecutions in Kenya. For instance the whole issue has attracted attention and given more credence to the cowardly ruling by the African Union to ask the ICC to withdraw the arrest warrant against Al Bashir.

See also:

Open letter to Ocampo from concerned Kenyans

Kumekucha's controversial Kalamari talks about the AU's decision on Bashir

Beware!!! Do you hate young Kenyans because they play their music too loudly?

There was this restaurant in Nairobi being run by a man in his fifties. He had been operating it for over 20 years and KNEW all the right things to do. Only that business gradually went downhill over the years. Finally, with the debts mounting he decided to call in a business consultant with the intention of selling off the restaurant for the best price possible.

It did not take long for the “young” executive from a well know accounting firm in Nairobi to figure out what the problem was.

Then Senator Barack Obama addressing a crowd of mostly young Kenyans

What had happened over the years is that the owner grew older and lost touch with his target clientele. He was busy doing things that would attract people his own age into his restaurant, sadly most of those guys are in semi-retirement and few of those still in Nairobi would go into a fast food joint in a prime location in the CBD.

The restaurant owner hated young folks. He did not like the way they dressed, they played their music too loudly and talked too loudly. He really hated their morals and their guts. And it showed in his restaurant. But sadly those were the guys he was supposed to be targeting.

This is the reason why many corporate companies these days change their marketing department teams pretty frequently never allowing them to grow too old. The result is that they easily stay in touch with their target market.

The way Kenyan politicians are behaving at the moment reminds me of that short-sighted restaurant owner, running a fast food joint for pensioners. It is business as usual for many of our politicians and they are busy playing the usual game of tribal arithmetic.

Today the Sunday Nation published a fascinating article based on the recently released Census figures that reveals that there will be an additional almost 6 million young people who will be eligible to vote for the first time in 2012. That is in addition to the high number of youngsters who unanimously gave a nod to the proposed constitution in the August referendum. According to my contacts on the ground older people voted against the draft constitution for various reasons and what made the difference is the huge percentage of young voters. Now picture the impact considering that another 6 million youngsters will be eligible to register as voters by 2012. And judging by the increased awareness amongst the young about how critical politics is to their daily lives, chances are that a sizeable percentage of these youngsters will register as voters.

Many politicians and even readers of this blog KNOW that Kenyans ALWAYS vote along tribal lines. They KNOW that the way to win a presidential election is to organize some powerful tribal alliances. They KNOW that elections in Kenya have never been issue-based. Well, they will know a little different in 2012.

Incidentally targeting the young is NOT giving exciting speeches and telling jokes that young folks can identify with.

Issues are very important for the brand new young voters of Kenya who will decide the next occupant of State house. Corruption is something else that has been brought to the forefront in recent times. Good looks too are important. And then these guys easily get bored and so very few presidential candidates if any will be able to successfully make long speeches and still hold the attention of their audiences. And as the Matuga constituency by-election a few months ago clearly illustrated the young people of Kenya are pretty unpredictable and can easily change their minds at the very last minute.

Revisiting long boring speeches, if you are Kalonzo Musyoka you will bore your audience who are already upset with your water melon ways and then blame your political rival for taking the trouble to organize a jeering crowd just for you from Kibera. The point is that such politicians stuck in their old ways of doing things will find it extremely tough going in 2012.

By the way the restaurant I started this post with was saved and retains the same owner to this day, only that he has employed some young mangers and listens to their suggestions. He hates young people less these days. Or shall we say that he is a lot more tolerant?

See also:
Breakthrough For Young Kenyan Presidential Candidate: Winds Of Change Blowing From Congo

Kenya youth are not idiots