Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Michuki’s Blunders On Mt Elgon

Mount Elgon has become so volatile that contingent's of para-military
Units, and the police have failed to stop the killings being undertaken by the so-called fierce Sabaot land defense force.

The tough talking minister for security John Michuki has not even bothered to visit the area and prefers to make statements from the confines of parliament or his secured Harambee house office.

Yet it will not cost too much for the minister to visit the area and assure the people that the government was doing everything to stop the human butchering activities there where even women and children are not spared.

With resources at his disposal, Me-chuki could fly there in a police or military helicopter and convene a meeting with the locals and be back in his plush residence near Windsor golf and country club before sunset.

But the fire spitting minister has instead taken a swipe at the media accusing it of claiming the government was doing nothing over the clashes yet several security personnel had been deployed to the area to quell the situation.

Michuki should have resigned a long time ago. In fact soon after the raid on Standard newspapers premises or better still Kibaki should have sacked him, but he didn't. It is reasons like this that make the Kibaki administration unpopular and increase the chances of the opposition forming the next government.

Kibaki might not care whether he wins re-election or not but he should be concerned about the legacy he intends to leave behind and should tackle the tribalism and nepotism problem that is deeply entrenched in his government and perpetuated by people like Michuki who ensured his son in law, Mutahi Kagwe was appointed minister after Dr Chris Murungaru was dropped.

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Monday, April 09, 2007

Foreigners Who Will Influence The Outcome Of Elections '07

Few political analysts are yet to realize this, but never in the history of Kenyan elections have the stakes been so high for virtually all concerned.

My condolences to those Kenyans who naively think that foreign powers are not an influencing factor in election outcomes, because I am going to be talking a lot about foreign influence in this post.
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Also published today

Foreign influence in Kenyan elections: The most likely scenario

Patrice Lumumba brutal details of freign interference emerge 47 years later
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Shall we start with the incumbent? Ailing, aging President Kibaki certainly does not want to be the first Kenyan president to be removed by the electorate. Moi was not removed; remember? He retired and it was Kanu which was in the cold only briefly and now its' members are back in government at the heart of Kibaki's so-called government of national unity. President Kibaki cannot afford to lose these elections also because time has been too short. He started his administration when he was ill and spent the first three years trying to settle in with LDP troubles and the death of his first Vice president, dealing him a terrible blow. He needs 5 more years to do what he really intended to do in his first term. He seems to have made a deal with the Americans to deal firmly with terror suspects in return for a more sympathetic Washington ear. Already this seems to be working, but most analysts are convinced that the Americans are not comfortable with a Kibaki government, especially because of his most recent close ally, China. But Kibaki\s biggest worry is that the British are openly hostile after losing a lot of traditional government business to the Japs and the Chinese. Historically no Kenyan president has ever won an election without the support of the British.

Former President Moi is a worried man. There are those who say that he amassed more wealth during his reign that what the late President Mobutu Sese Seko of mineral rich Congo managed to put away in Swiss accounts. But one wrong move and his twilight years could turn into a nightmare. Of all elections Moi has been involved in during his long years in politics, this is one that he cannot afford to lose. That's why to make sure, the so-called professor of politics has no less than 2 horses in contention, with a possible third in the wings. Unknown to many Kenyans, Moi is one of Kalonzo Musyoka's main advisors. And what a difference that advice has made. Raila was just about to run away with the ODM party nomination for President after a carefully orchestrated consensus session when a Moi-orchestrated coup saw all major presidential candidates boycotting a major London session that was supposed to be a bonding session even as ODM seals its' choice of presidential candidate. Kalonzo also stood his ground and refused to leave ODM. Moi does not mind Kalonzo Musyoka being the ODM presidential candidate after all Musyoka is on record as having publicly told the Kalenjin community that he will protect them from "controversies of the past." In simple English that means that he will protect Moi and Biwott's ill gotten wealth as well as that of a handful of other prominent members of the Kalenjin tribe. Interestingly Moi is closer to the Americans currently than he ever was during his presidency. The reason is simple, Moi is the perfect tool in American hands for them to exert their influence without anybody knowing what is going on, because he is as powerful as ever in today's Kenya. Wily Moi on the other hand is looking for certain guarantees and assurances from the Americans for himself and his children long after he's gone. It is instructive that Moi can still get a visa to travel to the United States and Britain while virtually all his henchmen including Nick Biwott and Joshua Kulei cannot. Moi does not mind a Kibaki victory and neither does he mind a Kalonzo one—that is two horses in the race. But then there is a Kanu candidate coming up as well whose main aim will be to take away as many votes as possible from a Raila candidature. One can' be too careful f you are Moi.

The only ODM presidential candidate who has attracted significant foreign interest and from an unlikely source, is Raila Odinga. It is clear that the South Africans are ready at any time to open their wallets to fund the Langata MPs presidential campaign. The South Africans see themselves as the sole major super power on the continent and now have vast interests to protect as well as a lengthy agenda to implement. They also have national security issues that force them to be very interested in supervising proceedings on the rest of the continent. It is now whispered that Raila Odinga did not in fact pay for the expensive ads that appeared on DSTV late last year, causing such a stir locally and abroad. So who picked up the tab for the ads? Difficult to say but you can start looking in the country where DSTV is headquartered. You guessed it, South Africa. More recently there is this South African Millionaire that is said to be very keen on financing ODM-Kenya. The problem is that everybody forgets or does not know that he is very close to the government and has been used in the past for special covert missions. This is one presidential election that Raila cannot afford to lose. Age is catching up and it is clearly now or never. That is why it does not really matter who the ODM nominee is, either way, one thing you can be sure of is that Raila is standing for president this time round. The Americans don't like him because they have bitter memories of his father's close links to the Soviets. The British do not know quite what to make of him, but they too mistrust him. Foreign powers like nothing better than people they can analyze and compartmentalize neatly for those lengthy memos back home. Unfortunately Raila cannot be compartmentalized. Went to school in the former Eastern Europe and although he claims to be a democrat, ODM Kenya strongly resembles the all-inclusive Communist party that took over from the Bolsheviks in Russia.


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