Now that it is almost certain that Raila Odinga will be the ODM-Kenya presidential candidate, the next important question is who will be his running mate or better still, his vice president?
The ideal candidate is Kalonzo Musyoka but due to the rivalry and power jostling the two have undergone while chasing the top seat in the party, it is likely that Musyoka will leave ODM in a huff after Raila is declared the presidential candidate. Kalonzo's exit will have more to do with pride than the way Raila was arrived upon to be the party's torchbearer.
William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta will hardly be valuable as running mates as they both can not deliver the block vote from their community due to other strong rival politicians from their home areas who also command a sizeable following. These are former president Moi amongst the Kalenjin and president Mwai Kibaki amongst the Kikuyu, respectively.
Betting on Musalia Mudavadi is even worse as he is only assured of the support of the tiny Maragoli sub-tribe of the luhya where he hails from. The Luhya are the most divided community in Kenya and it is no surprise that they have the highest number of presidential aspirants at four. They are Musalia, Cyrus YK92 Jirongo, Julia Ojiambo (who will now step down in favor of Raila in ODM) and Musikari Kombo.
There is also the option of Raila opting for a woman Vice president in Julia Ojiambo which could make history but sadly, is unlikely to produce much in terms of added value in number of votes. Apart from the fact that the vast majority of Kenyan voters in the village tend to look down on women candidates (this is very sad, but the reality) Julia hails from the Luhya community which has enjoyed the Vice presidency more than any other tribe in the history of Kenya. The community is now keen for the presidency and any vice presidential candidate who is a Luhya is bound to have very minimal impact in the community.
This leaves Najib Balala who has the advantage of coming from the coast, a region that has never tasted the vice presidency yet have a sizeable chunk of votes which are more often than not scattered.
Considering that Raila himself has a big following in the coast province, it could be prudent to select Balala as his running mate in a bid that could secure him a block vote from the coast and destroy President Kibaki's well laid plans in Momabasa.
Balala may not be that popular or famous in coast province at the moment but his appointment as Raila's number two could change his fortunes overnight and even scare away his bitter rival for the Mvita parliamentary seat, Ali Taib who is a former Mombasa mayor. Balala is also a former Mayor of Kenya's second largest city.
Being of Arab origin, Balala will find himself facing a tough ride if he fully comes out to the limelight especially from the indigenous coastals who detest Arabs, the Mvita MP will have to toughen his stomach from the deluge of verbal and written insults that could come his way. However, the fact that Balala is a wealthy man by Kenyan standards should augur well for him as he will be capable of assisting the ODM Kenya campaign machinery in a big way not to mention his multi-millionare Arab friends whom he will easily convince to chip in to the party's campaign kitty.
And again, the Muslim community who are annoyed with the Kibaki government, which they accuse of harassment on the pretext of fighting terrorism, will vote as a block for ODM if Balala is Odinga's running mate.
It is because of these many reasons that Raila's best bet for vice president is the soft spoken Mvita MP who will be completing his first term in parliament at the end of this year. It will be remembered that in 2002 he caused one of the biggest poll upsets by flooring the then Kanu's coast kingpin Sharif Nassir wom many considered invincible.
A Kenyan safari of a lifetime at a price you will not believe.
Shocking Nation sex scandal dossier finally released.
Thursday, March 01, 2007
What are Kalonzo Musyoka's Options Now?
Now that it is evident that Kalonzo Musyoka will NOT be the ODM presidential candidate, chances are that he will leave the party soon after Raila Odinga is named the party's presidential candidate.
What must be understood is that Kalonzo will not dessert ODM-Kenya because of the way that Raila will be selected but it will have more to do with his pride and his misplaced belief (built over numerous Steadmann popularity poll results) that he is a better man than Raila.
It will be perhaps the most bitter pill Musyoka has ever swallowed in his long political career, considering that opinion polls for the better part of last year have always said that he was more popular than Odinga and was only second to Kibaki. One opinion poll at the beginning put him right at the top, above eve prsient Kibaki, in popularity. These polls gave Musyoka the false impression that he would easily be selected as the ODM-Kenya presidential candidate by whatever method was arrived on, although he clearly favored some sort of direct vote country-wide.
And again, during the constitution referendum, Raila said in public 'Kalonzo tosha' meaning Kalonzo was capable which made Kenyans assume that Raila could vouch for a Musyoka presidency and he would settle for the much-talked-about prime minister's post.
So, if Musyoka is to leave, where can he go? Especially if you put into consideration the fact that he does not have the cash to finance his own presidential campaign and neither does he have enough super rich friends in Kenya to assist him, like some of the other candidates. But let's assume for a moment that Musyoka somehow finds the cash and decides to go it alone with his own party—which would most probably be the Rainbow Alliance Party (RAP), an outfit registered by his alter ego, one Dee Kivuva a former police officer sacked from the general service unit several years ago for fraud.
He will probably secure the Kamba vote, though not as a block as his support from the community was previously powered by the fact he would be the ODM-Kenya candidate whose presidential aspirant had the biggest chances of dethroning Kibaki.
Another factor that may cause Kalonzo to write his own political obituary on leaving ODM is the simple fact that he will leave alone as he does not have the capacity and ability to woo other big wigs in the movement to join him in abandoning it. In other words, Musyoka's exit from ODM will barely affect the party's chances of dethroning Kibaki and will probably strengthen it as most of the power jostling in the party has always been between Kalonzo and Raila supporters. This will cease with Kalonzo out of the way.
Kalonzo's other option is to join Narc-Kenya who will probably not treat him as a big catch but will accommodate him all the same for propaganda purposes against ODM in exchange for an obscure position in the next government if they win.
In other words, Kalonzo's option on leaving ODM are extremely limited and if he thinks twice and gets good advice, he is better off swallowing his pride and accepting the vice president post within ODM. That is by far his best bet.
A Kenyan safari of a lifetime at a price you will not believe.
Shocking Nation sex scandal dossier finally released.
What must be understood is that Kalonzo will not dessert ODM-Kenya because of the way that Raila will be selected but it will have more to do with his pride and his misplaced belief (built over numerous Steadmann popularity poll results) that he is a better man than Raila.
It will be perhaps the most bitter pill Musyoka has ever swallowed in his long political career, considering that opinion polls for the better part of last year have always said that he was more popular than Odinga and was only second to Kibaki. One opinion poll at the beginning put him right at the top, above eve prsient Kibaki, in popularity. These polls gave Musyoka the false impression that he would easily be selected as the ODM-Kenya presidential candidate by whatever method was arrived on, although he clearly favored some sort of direct vote country-wide.
And again, during the constitution referendum, Raila said in public 'Kalonzo tosha' meaning Kalonzo was capable which made Kenyans assume that Raila could vouch for a Musyoka presidency and he would settle for the much-talked-about prime minister's post.
So, if Musyoka is to leave, where can he go? Especially if you put into consideration the fact that he does not have the cash to finance his own presidential campaign and neither does he have enough super rich friends in Kenya to assist him, like some of the other candidates. But let's assume for a moment that Musyoka somehow finds the cash and decides to go it alone with his own party—which would most probably be the Rainbow Alliance Party (RAP), an outfit registered by his alter ego, one Dee Kivuva a former police officer sacked from the general service unit several years ago for fraud.
He will probably secure the Kamba vote, though not as a block as his support from the community was previously powered by the fact he would be the ODM-Kenya candidate whose presidential aspirant had the biggest chances of dethroning Kibaki.
Another factor that may cause Kalonzo to write his own political obituary on leaving ODM is the simple fact that he will leave alone as he does not have the capacity and ability to woo other big wigs in the movement to join him in abandoning it. In other words, Musyoka's exit from ODM will barely affect the party's chances of dethroning Kibaki and will probably strengthen it as most of the power jostling in the party has always been between Kalonzo and Raila supporters. This will cease with Kalonzo out of the way.
Kalonzo's other option is to join Narc-Kenya who will probably not treat him as a big catch but will accommodate him all the same for propaganda purposes against ODM in exchange for an obscure position in the next government if they win.
In other words, Kalonzo's option on leaving ODM are extremely limited and if he thinks twice and gets good advice, he is better off swallowing his pride and accepting the vice president post within ODM. That is by far his best bet.
A Kenyan safari of a lifetime at a price you will not believe.
Shocking Nation sex scandal dossier finally released.
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