Unpacking the Political Drama Behind Kenya's National Dialogue and the Role of Uhuru Kenyatta

 Kenya's Daily Nation published a truly explosive article that many might have missed. The article suggested that the fourth President of Kenya, Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta, may be responsible for creating a split within the Azimio coalition. It insinuated that Kenyatta's actions were crucial in fragmenting Azimio, claiming that he had made efforts to derail the bipartisan national dialogue talks, even holding private meetings with Azimio leaders at Raila Odinga's home to discuss these talks, at least twice.

While some may argue that the Nation Media Group has lost some of its former glory as a reliable news source, it is important to remember that the paper has years of experience in gathering valuable information. If this widely believed interpretation is true, the issue isn't with the journalists gathering information, but with how it is presented. The real challenge is piecing this information together in a way that makes sense politically.

This brings me to a new angle I want to explore today: the link between Uhuru Kenyatta's involvement in scuttling the talks and his recent meeting with envoys from the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, and Switzerland. I firmly believe these two events are connected, and understanding the link will help us digest the information more effectively and understand its political implications for Kenya.

First, let's address a key question: Would it be in Uhuru Kenyatta's best interest to destroy the Azimio coalition? The simple answer is no. It is, in fact, in Kenyatta’s best interest for Azimio to remain intact and strong. Now that we’ve cleared that up, let me share something that might surprise you.

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Now, let's look at a profound statement by political leader Martha Karua. She summed up the bipartisan talks drama in one simple sentence: "The committee was formed by the unwilling, composed of the incompetent, to do the unnecessary." This reveals the essence of the issue. Karua suggests that the political figures involved in the talks were not willing to negotiate, and the result was a fruitless exercise. The necessary action, she argues, was to announce the correct 2022 presidential election results and install the legitimate winner, not waste time with these talks.

Karua’s statement allows us to link Uhuru Kenyatta’s efforts to scuttle the dialogue talks with his meeting with foreign envoys. Her insight also sheds light on why Raila Odinga and other Azimio leaders have acted as they have. It’s clear that there’s a deeper game being played behind the scenes.

In analyzing the situation, imagine you have a star striker in a football match—highly skilled but heavily marked. You have two choices: you either substitute him to protect him for future matches or reposition him to become a supplier for others. This analogy is key to understanding what’s happening within Azimio. The coalition is not breaking up; it’s reorganizing and regrouping.

Contrary to popular belief, the recent actions within Azimio do not signal a complete collapse. Figures like Eugene Wamalwa and the Mount Kenya group haven’t defected—they are still very much part of Azimio, despite claims to the contrary. This strategic repositioning within the coalition is not about abandoning ship but rather about adapting to political pressures.

Azimio has a secret weapon that no opposition in Kenya has ever had: a former president who truly understands the inner workings of the presidency. Uhuru Kenyatta's extensive experience gives the coalition a significant advantage. He knows exactly how the government operates and can predict political moves months or even a year in advance. This insight provides Azimio with a unique opportunity to navigate Kenya’s political landscape with unparalleled foresight.

Unlike previous administrations, where presidents like Daniel arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki made early mistakes due to inexperience, Kenyatta’s understanding of power dynamics is far more sophisticated. His insight into the presidency allows him to guide Azimio’s strategy without directly engaging in the public fray. Essentially, the coalition is able to issue statements and take actions without fully committing, knowing that the political scenario will unfold in their favor.

In conclusion, while the public drama may seem overwhelming, it is part of a larger strategy. Azimio is not collapsing but rather reorganizing and positioning itself for future political maneuvering. The real game is being played quietly in the background, with Uhuru Kenyatta’s influence steering the direction of Kenya’s political future. It’s crucial to understand that the powerful forces shaping this drama do not care about the well-being of ordinary Kenyans. They are more concerned with their broader geopolitical interests, as seen in other countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo.

As this drama unfolds, remember that what seems like chaos is often part of a larger, well-calculated political strategy. The situation may appear confusing, but the real story lies in the background, with powerful figures pulling the strings.