The Unfolding Political Crisis in Kenya and the Global Forces Behind It

 There has been a notable shift in the rhetoric surrounding tribalism in Kenyan politics. Recently, those close to President William Ruto have begun speaking against tribalism dividing the nation, despite their own involvement in a government seen by many as tribal in nature. While Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua continues to praise Ruto, others close to him are raising concerns about the suffering in Mount Kenya due to current government policies. The political landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with both sides of the political divide missing the larger picture: Ruto's government is politically cornered, a fact many are reluctant to acknowledge.

This situation mirrors what's happening in South Africa, where unprecedented political changes are unfolding. In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) has lost its parliamentary majority, signaling the potential for a coalition of survival after elections. This coalition could have profound consequences for Kenya, as the 2010 Constitution was designed to prevent a dominant presidency and instead empower Parliament. The current political system in Kenya, however, has strayed from this vision due to election rigging by key figures like Mwai Kibaki and William Ruto. The reality now is that tribalism remains deeply embedded in Kenyan politics, despite official rhetoric denouncing it.

The unfolding crisis is also evident in the recent Madaraka Day celebrations, which were notably attended by fewer dignitaries, signaling that powerful figures are starting to distance themselves from a government they see as incapable of addressing their concerns. At the heart of this shift is the growing rebellion against tribal politics, led by figures like Rigathi Gachagua, but the irony is clear: the government itself is deeply tribal.

As Kenya faces mounting political uncertainties, the real challenge may lie in removing tribalism from its politics. With mounting pressure from international powers and the global economic elite, any significant change to Kenya’s political system could face immense opposition. However, the need for change is clear, and the future may bring a coalition government that reflects the broader interests of the country, rather than a system dominated by tribal elites.

Ultimately, Kenya's political future could look more like South Africa's—a nation where power is increasingly decentralized, and political forces must learn to cooperate in new ways. But this shift will require overcoming deeply ingrained tribalism and ensuring a truly free and fair election process—steps that are easier said than done. The question remains: will Kenya rise to meet this challenge, or will it continue down a path of political division and stagnation?