The Unfolding Crisis in Kenya: Analyzing the Events of July 4, 2024

 Recent events in Kenya, especially around the protests that took place on July 4, 2024, have sparked significant debate. Many Kenyans believed that the protests would intensify, expecting widespread demonstrations across the country. However, the anticipated chaos did not unfold as expected, leaving many to believe that the protests had lost momentum and the public had grown tired. This view, although common, may not reflect the true reality of the situation.

The media coverage of the protests on July 4 was markedly different from what we saw on Tuesday, July 2. On Tuesday, news outlets were actively covering the protests nationwide, including reports from counties like Kisumu and others that saw pockets of demonstrations. In contrast, on the 4th of July, media coverage was significantly toned down, with the government accusing media houses of inciting further unrest by broadcasting the protests. As a result, many Kenyans were unaware of the extent of the unrest in regions like Kisumu and others.

One significant observation was that the turnout for protests on the 4th of July was lower than anticipated. While some areas saw disturbances, overall participation was disappointing, leaving many to question why this was the case. The absence of clear answers only adds to the uncertainty about the future of the protests.

On that same day, businesses across Kenya remained largely closed. Unlike typical public holidays where many people are out and about, Kenyans stayed home, avoiding work or even shopping. This has a direct economic impact, especially on government revenue. For instance, the absence of vehicles paying parking fees in cities like Nairobi resulted in a significant loss of daily revenue. If protests continue to disrupt work on Tuesdays and Thursdays, the strain on the economy will only increase, potentially leading to long-term financial consequences.

Another notable development is the ongoing internal strife within the government. There seems to be a lack of unity, as evidenced by the contrasting approaches of government officials like Interior CS Kiki and the rising influence of Defense CS Eden D. This internal division signals a lack of clear strategy to address the crisis. Furthermore, the recent arrest of a Cabinet Secretary in Dubai with large sums of money, combined with the proposed salary increases for MPs, has caused public outrage. These developments only add fuel to the dissatisfaction among Kenyans.

Looking ahead, the political landscape is evolving rapidly. As Kenya approaches the historic Sabas Saba Day, which marks a pivotal moment in the struggle for political change, tensions continue to rise. The recent shift in Parliament dynamics suggests that some MPs may no longer be willing to follow government instructions, adding to the uncertainty.

The situation is further complicated by the looming financial crisis. The failure to pass the Finance Bill 2024 has put Kenya's international financial deals at risk, especially with entities like the IMF and World Bank. The repercussions of this could be significant, as the government may face pressure to meet its financial obligations, further exacerbating the economic strain.

In conclusion, while some may believe that the events of July 4 represent a setback for the protests and the government’s challenges, the reality is more complex. The government is already facing a difficult situation, and its failure to act decisively may lead to further complications. The situation in Kenya is far from resolved, and the struggle for change is likely to continue, potentially evolving into a prolonged battle that could significantly shape the country’s future.