The Turning Point: Why the Ruto Administration Faces an Unstoppable Crisis

 In my career as a political analyst, one crucial tool that has guided me is being highly observant to detect even the smallest changes. Often, these seemingly minor shifts turn out to be monumental. A prime example of this was in 2015-2016 when I noticed President Uhuru Kenyatta’s subtle but significant distancing from his deputy, William Ruto. His change in demeanor and body language, which never lies, led me to predict a deepening rift. Many dismissed my findings until the 2017 elections proved my observations right.

Currently, there’s another notable shift under President William Ruto: he's finally starting to listen to advisers. While listening is one thing, truly hearing is another. This brings us to the important question: who are these advisers, and how effective are they?

I categorize them into two groups: first, loyal advisers with limited experience, and second, experienced foreign advisers knowledgeable in global affairs but unfamiliar with Kenyan politics. The latter group, while well-versed in international matters, seems to have missed the mark in handling the current domestic crisis. Their advice, particularly in response to the Gen Z protests, has not been effective and has even backfired.

A clear example of this was the government’s focus on defending key installations and attempting to intimidate protesters, strategies that proved counterproductive. Police brutality, widely covered in international media, has created a significant international political problem for the regime. The global response to this has intensified internal pressure on the government.

The government's biggest mistake, however, was misplacing its priorities. Instead of focusing on regaining public support, it became fixated on short-term solutions. The protesters’ movements are not rooted in tribal lines, but rather in the shared discontent with government policies affecting all Kenyans. Today’s informed, tech-savvy population is keenly aware of the political landscape, rendering tribal tactics obsolete.

If there is a single takeaway, it is that the Ruto regime has reached a point of no return. No amount of advice, whether from loyalists or foreign experts, can change the fact that Kenyans have lost faith in the government. The Gen Z protests, the international media coverage, and the widespread dissatisfaction signal that this administration’s days are numbered.

At this stage, the regime's fall is inevitable, and it is only a matter of time before we witness the end of Ruto’s rule, whether it comes in weeks or months. The current political landscape in Kenya is starkly different from past crises. The political machine can no longer rely on tribal divides to maintain control. For the first time in Kenya’s history, the government must face the united discontent of a well-informed population, and no adviser can save it now.