The Ruto Regime's Desperate Moves: A Sign of Impending Change in Kenya

 One thing is abundantly clear in Kenya today: the government of President William Samoei Ruto has been cornered. It is running out of ideas, and a recent crackdown on the media is one stark sign of this desperation. While the government denies these actions, overwhelming evidence suggests otherwise. History tells us that when a government reaches such a point, the end is often near.

Looking back to July 1990, Kenya witnessed the Saba Saba riots, which followed a bold call from Kenneth Matiba and Charles Rubia for the restoration of multi-party democracy. Despite the firm grip of President Daniel arap Moi and KANU at the time, and an intense government clampdown, change came within just 16 months. The government’s harsh tactics, including arrests and media censorship, created a vacuum that birthed alternative media like Ugatabaki and P Gamora’s Society magazine, which defied the restrictions. Within a short time, Kenya was transformed.

Fast forward to today, and it seems the Ruto regime is making similar missteps. The government’s increasingly authoritarian stance, including attempts to curtail protests and media coverage, echoes the repression of the past. In particular, the acting Inspector General of Police recently issued a directive to ban protests in Nairobi’s Central Business District (CBD). This order was swiftly rescinded after Kenyans went to court, but it signals a troubling disregard for the 2010 Constitution. Additionally, communications authorities have warned the media against live broadcasting of protests, an alarming move for any democratic society.

Yet, in the age of citizen journalism, such efforts are futile. With smartphones in the hands of millions, especially the Gen Z generation, social media platforms continue to provide real-time updates. Even if mainstream media were to shut down, alternative coverage through platforms like YouTube would ensure the government’s actions remain exposed. In trying to suppress live coverage, the government may inadvertently fuel greater interest in these protests, heightening public scrutiny.

The recent attack on Citizen TV and the brutal arrest of journalist Mashar G, combined with the violent incident involving a reporter in Nakuru, have only compounded the government’s troubles. These actions have sparked widespread support for the affected media outlets, especially Citizen TV, known for its accurate and factual reporting. Much like in the 1990s, the government’s attempts to suppress dissent are backfiring.

Just as Moi’s regime was forced to relent in a relatively short period, the Ruto government’s efforts to quell dissent will likely face swift resistance. It is unlikely that it will take 16 months for the Ruto regime’s clampdown to unravel—change could come much sooner. Whether or not a government of national unity is formed, the momentum for transformation is building. The writing is on the wall: the government is fighting a losing battle.