The Political Chess Game: Strategies and Propaganda Ahead of Kenya’s 26th October Elections

 In the second part of this series, we delve deeper into the political landscape as Kenya braces for the highly anticipated 26th October elections. As I’ve always emphasized, politicians rarely share their true intentions. They don’t call press conferences to disclose their game plans or endgames, and this atmosphere is further clouded by the overwhelming presence of propaganda. In Kenya, the news cycle has become a breeding ground for it.

Take, for example, the recent incident where rookie MP Mohammad Ali welcomed the president to his constituency, only to be used as a pawn in the political propaganda game. Shortly after his brief speech, which expressed the people’s desire for change, media outlets quickly spun the narrative, claiming that Ali had defected to Jubilee. A NASA supporter even reached out to me, distressed, asking if the news was true. This is the power of propaganda at play—powerful enough to cause confusion and stir emotions. Jubilee, especially, is a master at this tactic, which makes it difficult for the public to discern the reality from the media-driven narrative.

Now, let’s turn our attention to the Jubilee party’s increased focus on Mombasa. You may have noticed their growing presence in the region. Previously, during a visit by the president, the motorcade couldn’t even stop at Congo Market due to the hostility in parts of Mombasa. But this attention is strategic. While some radicals in Jubilee view the idea of secession as not such a bad one, the reality is that they would lose critical coastal ports in the process.

Looking ahead, if elections do not take place on the 26th, one of the key discussions could be secession, and Mombasa—being a coastal region—is strategically important. Jubilee’s focus on Mombasa could be a response to the potential fallout from any political crisis. Not only does Mombasa hold economic significance, especially in terms of corruption and illegal imports, but it’s also a region Jubilee cannot afford to lose, especially if the rest of the country faces uncertainty.

As we approach the 26th October, it’s important to note that, for the first time, Raila Odinga seems to be in full control of the political narrative. Unlike in previous elections where his efforts were undermined by rigging and manipulation, Odinga’s position this time appears stronger, and the possibility of a surprise move from NASA remains high. Jubilee, on the other hand, finds itself in an unfamiliar position of uncertainty. Despite their attempts to dominate the narrative, the truth is they have no clear insight into what will unfold on the 26th.

To illustrate this, think back to the days following the August 8th elections when Jubilee was caught off guard by NASA’s refusal to accept the results and the subsequent legal and political maneuvers. This time, however, it’s clear that Odinga’s team has planned for every eventuality, keeping their opponents guessing until the very last minute. Whether this leads to a dramatic political shift remains to be seen, but it’s evident that no one, including Jubilee, knows exactly what to expect.

As the 26th October draws closer, the suspense continues to build. For long-suffering Kenyans hoping for change, the outcome could be both thrilling and unpredictable. One thing is certain: this is far from an ordinary election, and the political game is far from over.