The Political Chess Game in Kenya: Analyzing the Current Crisis and the Handshake Debate

 

Many Kenyans are expressing dissatisfaction with the ongoing political situation, particularly concerning the potential for a “handshake” between President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga. While many analysts believe that a handshake is imminent and will bring peace to the nation, I strongly disagree with this perspective. There is a deeper, more complex situation unfolding, which requires a closer look at the current government’s strategy and the actions of both political leaders.

The government's approach to dealing with the crisis seems to be focused on crushing opposition, employing violent tactics during demonstrations to discredit protesters. However, this strategy has backfired, especially in light of widespread access to social media, which has exposed government-backed violence. The narrative of police brutality has gained traction, turning public opinion, both locally and internationally, against the government.

A key turning point was the controversial incident in Watamu, where a young woman was allegedly framed with drugs. This event has sparked global sympathy, with many questioning the moral standing of the government. Furthermore, the use of police force to suppress dissent has been increasingly scrutinized, with opposition leaders now focusing on exposing the brutality and making this the central issue.

The government’s miscalculation in targeting certain communities, particularly in the wake of past protest movements, is another blunder. The government’s attempts to provoke these groups may have stirred even greater resistance, shifting the political dynamics in unpredictable ways.

On the opposition side, Raila Odinga’s call for a mediator in any talks has been misinterpreted by many as desperation. However, Raila, now in his late 70s, is less concerned with personal gain and more focused on securing his legacy. After decades of fighting for a better Kenya, he is unlikely to be motivated by financial or political positions. His primary concern now is to conclude his political career in a way that will be remembered positively by future generations.

Looking at the current political landscape, Raila’s approach is strategic. His recent moves, while seemingly moderate, are part of a carefully calculated plan to position himself and his cause effectively on the international stage. This has already caused unease within the government, as foreign observers begin to take notice of the stark contrast between Raila’s composed demeanor and the government’s increasingly erratic behavior.

In conclusion, while many may be eager for a quick resolution, it is important to view the situation through the lens of a long-term political strategy. The next moves in this political chess game will be critical, and as events unfold, we must remember that political dynamics in Kenya are far more complex than a simple handshake can resolve.