The Next Phase of Raila's Resistance Movement: What Kenyans Should Expect

 

 When Raila Odinga says he will ask his supporters to stay indoors, what does he truly mean? This statement comes in the wake of growing police brutality against demonstrators, with the Inspector General of Police attempting to sell the narrative that hired bodies were behind the protests. Many of Raila's supporters are in a state of panic, underestimating his resolve and determination to fight for a better Kenya as part of his lasting legacy.

Many of us remember the media frenzy surrounding the so-called "handshake," where many people insisted that Raila and President Uhuru Kenyatta would eventually form an alliance. Those same voices are now questioning Raila's current strategy, particularly when he calls for his supporters to stay home and cease the protests. Does this mean the resistance movement against the Finance Bill 2023 and the oppressive regime led by Ruto has come to an end? Is the fight for a better Kenya over?

Contrary to the doubts of some, Raila’s next move will be nothing short of devastating. It will be a resistance that can’t be stopped by police forces or any other authority. This peaceful form of resistance will be unstoppable.

While many may not be lovers of history, it’s important to look back at Mahatma Gandhi’s non-violent resistance against colonial rule. Gandhi's methods were sometimes misunderstood, even criticized, but they ultimately led to India’s independence. Peaceful resistance, while often underappreciated, has a proven track record of working. Raila and Azimio may adopt a new form of protest: instead of mass demonstrations, they could encourage Kenyans to stay indoors as a form of protest. This method would be a constitutional act, and the government would have a hard time spinning it as illegal or unconstitutional.

If Raila truly won the 2022 elections, as many believe, then a nationwide standstill could bring Kenya to a halt. The implications for President Ruto’s administration would be severe, potentially forcing them to beg for the return of the more traditional protests. While protests do disrupt daily life, they also allow things to continue moving in a limited way. But the new form of protest could bring everything to a complete standstill.

Importantly, if peaceful protests are conducted properly, businesses should be able to function without disruption. The only real issue arises when the police or instigators cause violence. If such actions are minimized, peaceful protests can be highly effective.

There is already evidence that peaceful demonstrations can work. For example, in Eldoret, parents protested against the County Government’s embezzlement of funds, which affected their children’s plans to study abroad. These protests were peaceful, with no reports of violence or property destruction. So, why is it that peaceful protests in other parts of Kenya are met with violent suppression? The government must answer this question, especially since Eldoret is the president’s home county.

Of course, we know that the government is unlikely to welcome these peaceful demonstrations. Instead, new narratives will emerge, accusing demonstrators of forcing others to stay home and violating their constitutional rights. But the truth remains unchanged: if people choose to stay home as a form of protest, no laws are being broken.

Raila has given the government 30 days to act, and those days are quickly running out. However, there is increasing external pressure on the Kenya Kwanza side, and Kenyans should prepare for the possibility of negotiations. These could lead to some concessions, but the real challenge will be in their implementation. While an agreement might be reached, how it’s carried out will be crucial.

Even if the resistance is delayed beyond the 30-day mark, Kenyans should brace themselves for the next phase of the resistance movement. This phase may not require people to leave their homes, but it will demand determination and resilience. The battle for a better Kenya continues, and it’s far from over.