The Forensic Audit of 2022 Elections: Political Maneuvering and What It Means for Kenya's Future

  Honorable Opio Andai, the Minority Leader in the National Assembly, made a statement that left many of his followers excited but cautious, as it seemed too good to be true. I received several emails asking what this means, and in case you're still in the dark, what he did was release a list of nominees for a panel that will audit the 2022 presidential elections. While this may seem like a small step, it is a significant one in Kenyan politics.

To understand the implications better, let's start from the beginning. During the national dialogue talks, Azimio had three irreducible minimums: addressing the cost of living, opening the election servers, and halting the creation of a new IBC. Although there was no agreement on the cost of living, there was an agreement to open the servers and address the IBC commissioners. However, the decision to let go of the cost of living issue made strategic sense for Azimio—after all, the government’s handling of the issue could eventually harm the ruling party.

Now, focusing on the audit of the 2022 election results, it’s clear that there’s no way Ruto and his team would have agreed to this process unless they had a plan in place. This plan likely includes ensuring that the audit’s findings do not unseat Ruto. The government might use subtle methods, like introducing a clause stating that any findings from the audit will only be implemented after 2027. This would protect Ruto’s position in the meantime.

In the past, election results have been tampered with in ways that complicate any efforts to prove that one candidate is the true winner. In 2007, for example, the electoral fraud involved stealing votes from Ruto's strongholds and then adding more votes to Raila's, thus muddying the waters and making it difficult to declare a winner. History shows that in Kenyan politics, finding an election result to be a "mess" doesn’t necessarily mean the loser wins, even if there’s evidence of theft.

The political significance of ODM's early release of nominees for this panel is crucial. Ordinarily, these names would have been revealed after the NADCO report passes through Parliament, but ODM's move highlights their awareness of potential alterations to the report by the UDA government. This early move is strategic and signals the importance of preserving the integrity of the report.

For Azimio supporters and those seeking justice, there’s still hope. The forensic audit could uncover revelations that may stir public outcry, especially given the current high cost of living and widespread dissatisfaction with the government. If the truth about the massive electoral theft comes to light, it could lead to unforeseen political consequences.

In my opinion, Ruto’s true vote count was far less than reported, and Raila’s victory was more than just a landslide— it was an unprecedented theft of votes. The coming days will be crucial, as we watch the political fallout from the forensic audit and how the government may try to manage it. Stay tuned, as this will be one of the most interesting political developments in Kenya’s history.