Sucession and Shifting Politics in Kenya's Current Landscape

 

 Yesterday’s major rally marked a historic moment with significant political implications. The main agenda was the official announcement of the return of mandamano, set to begin after Ramadan. However, the rally revealed unexpected surprises. The most significant development was the reemergence of secessionist sentiment in Kenyan politics. Former Muranga Governor, Mwangi Wairia, made his first appearance at the rally, signaling Central Kenya's increasing visibility in the Azimio movement. This is troubling for President Ruto and the Kenya Kwanza alliance, as Central Kenya’s support is crucial.

Let me refresh your memory: in 2022, Wairia sought to run for the presidency but was denied this constitutional right. Many believe that the electoral results were manipulated through an algorithm designed to ensure only four presidential candidates, skewing the final vote in favor of Ruto. In reality, Raila Odinga likely won more votes than the official count suggests. The whistleblower’s server audit revealed that Raila actually won in several regions, including Uasin Gishu, a highly cosmopolitan county. These findings challenge the official results and suggest that Raila’s victory was a landslide.

As Kenya grapples with the future of its unity, discussions around secession will likely intensify. Central Kenya's increased presence in the Azimio movement signals that the idea of dividing Kenya into separate political entities is gaining traction. Yet, the practicality of this idea remains complex, especially with over 70% of Kenyans supporting Raila. What would the borders of a divided Kenya look like? Who would lead the divided factions? It’s a situation that Kenya Kwanza may not be prepared for.

As for the government’s stance on the ongoing demonstrations, there have been notable contradictions. The Inspector General of Police recently declared that the demonstrations were illegal, only to backtrack later, signaling a shift in government rhetoric. This change in tone is likely driven by concerns over potential ICC investigations into human rights violations, including the use of snipers during protests. Some sources suggest that the IG may have been complicit in actions against opposition supporters during the 2013 protests, a fact that could further complicate his position.

Ruto's administration is under scrutiny for its handling of the ongoing protests, and it seems that the government’s tactics are shifting as political realities evolve. The ICC and public opinion are shaping a new narrative, one that could have lasting consequences for the future of Kenya.