Raila Odinga and Ruto Government's AU Deal: Strategy or Misstep?

 Kenyans were left in shock following a joint press conference held by Raila Odinga and Chief Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi on behalf of President William Ruto’s administration. The unexpected collaboration has sparked widespread confusion and anger among Raila’s supporters, with many struggling to comprehend the implications of this unusual alliance.

One of the more surprising revelations from the press briefing was Raila's admission that he had expected the government to oppose his bid for an African Union (AU) position. Instead, the government not only endorsed his candidacy but also announced plans to establish a secretariat to coordinate his bid, pledging state resources to support his endeavor.

This development has raised several critical questions:

1. A Strategic Move by the Government?

It is evident that the Kenya Kwanza government stands to gain from Raila’s potential appointment to the AU. With Raila occupied in Addis Ababa and on international assignments, his absence from the local political scene could weaken the opposition and allow the government to operate without his unifying influence over resistance movements.

2. Raila’s Intentions:

Raila's unexpected compliance has left even seasoned political analysts puzzled. Is he strategically playing along, fully aware of the government’s intentions, or is this a miscalculated move? Some believe Raila anticipates the government’s collapse under internal crises—like the growing tensions surrounding Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua—well before the 2027 elections.

3. Historical Parallels and Risks:

Raila has previously emerged unscathed from politically risky alliances, such as his controversial merger with KANU in the 1990s. At the time, many believed his political career was over, yet he made a remarkable comeback. However, Kenya’s current economic hardships and rising public frustration make this situation far more precarious.

Supporters of Raila have expressed discontent, interpreting his cooperation with the government as validation of propaganda suggesting he has been "bought off." This perception could severely damage his political standing among the public.

A Wider Game at Play?

There is speculation that powerful external forces may be influencing this development. Such players could be pushing Raila into a position that benefits both the government and foreign interests, while sidelining the opposition. In politics, revealing one’s strategy often undermines its success—a mistake the Ruto administration seems to be making by openly pushing Raila toward the AU.

Despite the apparent risks, Raila’s history shows he has often emerged stronger from adversity. However, his critics warn that times have changed. The Kenyan public, burdened by economic struggles, may not be as forgiving as they were in the past.