NASA's checkmate move: Top secret for now

The events of the past few hours have set in motion long-planned actions by the NASA coalition, particularly their legal team, that will fundamentally change Kenya. The recent repeat presidential election has revealed significant truths that no press conferences or propaganda can obscure.

Key Observations from the Repeat Election:

1. Historically Low Voter Turnout:

This election witnessed the lowest voter turnout in Kenyan history, even lower than by-elections. In some constituencies, turnout was less than 5%, an unprecedented occurrence in a presidential election. In many areas, voting barely took place or didn’t happen at all.

2. Voting Irregularities Across Regions:

Over 50% of constituencies did not have proper elections. Even Jubilee strongholds, such as parts of the Rift Valley and Central Kenya, experienced alarmingly low turnout, with some polling stations seeing no voters at all. Central Kenya performed better than most areas, but overall turnout was still a mere 30% in many places.

3. Excuses for Low Turnout:

The IEBC chairman attributed the low turnout to heavy rain, yet this explanation falls short. Areas with heavy rain, like parts of Mount Kenya, still saw relatively higher turnout. The excuse does not explain the dismal performance in Jubilee strongholds.

Implications and Observations:

The election results have highlighted a lack of confidence in Jubilee, even within its perceived strongholds.

The low turnout reinforces claims that the August 8 election results were manipulated. If Jubilee truly had the overwhelming support they claim, a significant portion of their alleged voter base should have turned out. This was not the case.

Jubilee’s Dilemma:

The botched repeat election has left Jubilee in a worse position than before. They are now cornered, with limited options:

Declaring Uhuru Kenyatta as president despite the flawed election would be legally contentious and play into NASA’s hands.

Manipulating figures to legitimize the election would be challenging, as Kenyans and international observers witnessed the low turnout firsthand.

NASA’s Strategy:

NASA now holds a stronger bargaining position due to the election’s outcome. This includes:

1. The Secession Card:

NASA’s legal team has been preparing for potential secession, which is supported by both the Kenyan Constitution and international law. Although secession is not NASA’s ultimate goal, it is a powerful bargaining tool to push for a unified Kenya under fair conditions.

2. Negotiation Leverage:

Jubilee’s willingness to entertain talks with NASA, as hinted by President Kenyatta, reflects their weak position. NASA’s numbers and the threat of secession give them an advantage in these discussions.

Broader Concerns:

Reports of police violence during the election, including shootings in Kisumu, Kibera, and Machakos, raise serious human rights concerns. These incidents underscore the tense and volatile state of the nation.

Conclusion:

The repeat election has only deepened Kenya’s political crisis, highlighting deep divisions and eroding confidence in the electoral process. The next steps for the country are critical, requiring dialogue and a commitment to unity to prevent further turmoil.