Kenya on the Brink: The Rising Tensions, Political Strategies, and Historical Parallels

In moments like these, people often find themselves on the wrong side of history. Shallow analysis of complex situations can prove costly in the long term. Today, a group of ODM legislators, labeled as “rebels,” appealed to their constituents not to participate in the planned demonstrations for Monday. Notably, this group includes a former comedian who once claimed he was “tricked” into visiting State House.

Such shallow reasoning often arises from self-interest—an unwillingness to look beyond personal comfort or that of a close circle. This analysis ignores the undeniable suffering of ordinary Kenyans. Even without Raila Odinga and Azimio protests, it is evident that most Kenyans cannot continue living under current conditions. Something has to give.

This suffering, which began globally with the pandemic, is not unique to Kenya. However, the insensitivity of Kenya’s current government toward its people’s plight sets the country apart. Across Africa, similar frustrations are manifesting. On Monday, protests are expected not only in Kenya but also in South Africa, Tunisia, and Nigeria—an “African Spring” reminiscent of the Arab Spring may be brewing.

Yet, Kenya’s case stands out. Never before have I witnessed a government seemingly determined to provoke its citizens into revolt. Just yesterday, 50 Chief Administrative Secretaries (CAS) were appointed, each earning over 700,000 Kenyan shillings per month. To make matters worse, one position previously held by a single CAS was replaced with seven appointees.

When shocked Kenyans questioned these appointments, the government’s response was almost laughable. Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua claimed that appointing 50 CASs would "speed up economic recovery." The irony is bitter. Can anyone point to a historical precedent where an economy in distress recovered through aggressive taxation and bloated government spending?

The situation is so dire that, even if Raila Odinga were to cancel Monday’s demonstrations—reportedly under immense pressure—it would only worsen matters. The protests would likely be taken over spontaneously by the people, with unpredictable consequences.

This makes the actions of ODM rebel politicians, who called for calm, baffling. When someone is deeply angry, is it wise to provoke them further or tell them to “calm down”? Silence would have been a better strategy for these politicians.

Meanwhile, Raila Odinga and Azimio were received warmly in what is traditionally seen as a UDA stronghold. This reception speaks volumes about the suffering Kenyans are experiencing, particularly business owners. Currently, doing business in Kenya has become a nightmare, compounded by the government’s aggressive tax policies, which are choking the very economy they claim to revive.

A worrying trend has also emerged. In Kiambu, during an Azimio caravan rally, a tear gas canister was thrown at their vehicles, forcing leaders to seek cover temporarily. While the meeting continued after calm was restored, the motive behind this act raises questions. Why would someone throw tear gas into a peaceful meeting? The likely aim is to provoke chaos—confusion that can spiral into violence and discredit peaceful protests.

This incident, combined with threats from key government figures such as Mike Sonko, who warned Azimio of a ruthless crackdown, paints a troubling picture. Deputy President Gachagua's utterances, which Raila Odinga publicly criticized, further escalate tensions. Calling one of Kenya’s founding fathers, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, a “troublemaker” adds unnecessary fuel to the fire.

The UDA government’s strategy seems clear: threats, propaganda, and intimidation. Videos and social media posts claiming the demonstrations have been postponed are emerging, all aimed at discouraging participation. However, these efforts are likely to backfire, as Kenyans appear resolute in their pursuit of justice and accountability.

It is important to recognize that the Constitution guarantees the right to peaceful demonstrations. No one is breaking the law by picketing. Yet, for those looking to discredit these protests, the strategy is clear: infiltrate the crowds with troublemakers to provoke disturbances.

History teaches us that Nairobi often bears the brunt of political unrest. From the second liberation struggle to the events of 2007, Nairobi has been the epicenter. Even today, the threats of marching to a specific location—State House—place Nairobi at the heart of Kenya’s political turbulence.

As the country braces for Monday, it is clear that the stakes are high. Kenyans are determined to take a stand against leadership they believe is out of touch with their struggles. The government’s heavy-handed responses risk turning a constitutional exercise into a historic uprising.

In conclusion, all signs point to an intensifying confrontation. History has shown that attempts to suppress legitimate grievances only serve to escalate them. As we wait for Monday’s events to unfold, one question remains: will the government heed the people’s cries, or will they continue to provoke further unrest?