Kenya Kwanza's Struggle: The Politics of Sanctions and Public Opinion

The political drama surrounding Raila Odinga and his call for electoral justice has become increasingly fascinating, especially when considering the actions of the Kenya Kwanza government. Initially, President Ruto and his administration dismissed the opposition’s protests, claiming they would have no impact and promising security for all demonstrations. Yet, in a sudden shift, the government has now sought foreign sanctions against Raila Odinga and other key Azimio leaders, including travel bans, which have historically been effective in pressuring political figures.

If the protests were truly meaningless, why would the government seek international help? Asking for sanctions indicates a problem that the government can’t address on its own. This reveals that, contrary to their earlier statements, the government is indeed facing significant pressure and is in crisis.

Historically, sanctions have provoked strong responses from those targeted, including defiance and negotiations behind the scenes. But will they have the desired effect on Raila Odinga? Given his longstanding commitment to Kenya’s electoral justice, it seems unlikely that he will be intimidated by these moves. His supporters, many of whom are suffering due to economic struggles like high food and fuel prices, are more likely to rally behind him. This political momentum could backfire on the government, strengthening the opposition’s position.

The government’s response has been seen as arrogant, refusing to reinstate subsidies for basic needs, which could have alleviated some public pressure. Instead, they’ve chosen to dismiss the opposition and the demands of the people, which is a dangerous approach in a political climate driven by public sentiment.

In this scenario, the government’s actions mirror past political mistakes, such as during the Moi era when Kanu faced pressure to repeal restrictive policies. Back then, a masterstroke move—repealing Section 2A—bought the government more time and defused the growing public outrage. But today, the Kenya Kwanza government seems to be repeating the mistakes of past regimes, failing to recognize that the right political moves are often about addressing people’s real needs and emotions, not just maintaining power.

The current trajectory seems clear: the government’s handling of the situation is pushing the country into deeper crisis. Political momentum is building in favor of Raila and Azimio, and any attempt to suppress this movement could only strengthen it. The Kenya Kwanza government faces a difficult road ahead, and the real challenge will be whether they can reverse course before the situation worsens further. The future of Kenya’s political landscape hinges on how the government navigates this mounting pressure.