Isaac Ruto Joins NASA: The Political Repercussions on Kenya's 2017 Elections

 Isaac Ruto's announcement that he has joined the NASA Coalition as its fifth principal is one of the most significant political developments in recent times. As the governor of Bomet County, located in the Rift Valley—a region traditionally considered a Jubilee stronghold—this move has raised questions about its potential impact on the 2017 presidential election.

A Calculated Move, Not a Surprise

While surprising to many, Isaac Ruto's decision is not entirely unexpected. He has long been perceived as aligning with NASA ideologically, with visible signs suggesting his interest in the coalition. This announcement merely formalizes his association. Comparing it to a relationship where affection is evident despite denials, this move is less of a shock and more of a confirmation of what was already suspected.

Impact on the Rift Valley Vote

The key question here is: how many votes will shift from Jubilee to NASA due to this alliance? To address this, we must consider the following:

1. Isaac Ruto’s Popularity in Bomet

Ruto remains a dominant political figure in Bomet. Reports indicate he enjoys immense grassroots support, with residents viewing him as a leader who has brought tangible change to the county. Although some opinion polls have suggested a tight race between Ruto and his closest competitor, Joyce Laboso, sources on the ground paint a different picture, indicating Ruto’s support is far stronger. His decision to consult local elders, former councilors, and professionals before crossing over to NASA underscores the strategic nature of this move.

2. Vote Redistribution

While Ruto’s influence in Bomet is significant, the Rift Valley is still predominantly a Jubilee stronghold. His decision may sway a portion of the vote in Bomet and possibly other areas within the South Rift, but it is unlikely to cause a massive shift in the overall Rift Valley vote. However, in a tightly contested election, even a small shift can have significant implications for the final tally.

Effect on the NASA-Jubilee Dynamic

While Isaac Ruto’s move strengthens NASA in terms of perception and regional representation, it comes at a time when the coalition is grappling with internal challenges. Delays in announcing the NASA flag bearer have created uncertainty among supporters, potentially affecting voter confidence. This internal disarray contrasts with Jubilee’s more unified front, even as they face challenges like the loss of Isaac Ruto's support.

Broader Implications for the Presidential Race

The national election is far from a straightforward numbers game. Various factors, including national issues, local dynamics, and voter turnout, will play crucial roles. Isaac Ruto’s defection, while significant, is one of many developments reshaping the political landscape as Kenya approaches the 2017 general election.

Isaac Ruto’s strategic entry into NASA underscores the complexity of Kenyan politics, where alliances shift and recalibrate in real time. For now, the focus shifts to how NASA will capitalize on this addition and whether Jubilee will counteract the potential ripple effects in the Rift Valley. Stay tuned for further analysis as these dynamics unfold.