Five Fatal Mistakes of the Ruto Administration: An Analysis

 Mistakes are an inevitable part of life. However, in governance, especially for a president, some mistakes can have catastrophic consequences—errors that cannot be undone. Governments, like individuals, must tread carefully, for a single misstep could spell the end of their reign, even prematurely. On my show today, I focus on five critical mistakes by the Ruto administration that have proven to be irreparable. Let’s dive in.

Fatal Mistake #1: Underestimating Uhuru Kenyatta

The Ruto administration's attitude toward former President Uhuru Kenyatta has been dismissive, to its own detriment. Ruto's public remarks and the infamous "almost slapping" story demonstrated a lack of respect and strategic foresight. Despite Ruto’s confidence, Uhuru has managed to maintain significant influence, particularly in the Mount Kenya region, where he has undermined Ruto’s political foothold without actively campaigning. This underestimation of Uhuru's political acumen has had far-reaching consequences, leaving the administration in a precarious position.

Fatal Mistake #2: Overreliance on Intelligence Services

Ruto’s 2022 electoral strategy appeared to rely heavily on his perceived control of Kenya’s intelligence community. However, history shows that intelligence agencies cannot indefinitely prop up an unpopular government. Past regimes, such as that of Daniel Moi, used intelligence to suppress dissent but ultimately failed to hold onto power. The Ruto administration's faith in intelligence tactics has not only failed to address public discontent but has also alienated many, further accelerating its loss of legitimacy.

Fatal Mistake #3: Overestimating the Power of Propaganda

Propaganda can be a double-edged sword. The Ruto administration’s heavy reliance on narratives—such as claims of economic recovery—has alienated the public, who are grappling with harsh realities. For instance, recent headlines suggesting economic improvement are detached from the struggles of ordinary Kenyans. Stage-managed economic indicators, like the temporary strengthening of the Kenyan shilling, may create illusions, but they are unsustainable and risk further public disillusionment.

Fatal Mistake #4: Ignoring the Cost of Living

The administration’s initial focus on theoretical production strategies rather than directly addressing the cost of living has proven disastrous. Unlike President Mwai Kibaki’s impactful moves—such as free primary education, which immediately reduced household burdens—Ruto’s policies have exacerbated economic hardship. When people’s pockets are affected, they don’t forget, and this miscalculation has eroded public trust irreparably.

Fatal Mistake #5: Falling for Theoretical Economics

Ruto’s administration has been seduced by grand economic theories championed by advisors like David Ndii, without fully considering their practicality in Kenya’s context. Theoretical solutions, such as production-focused policies, have failed to address immediate economic challenges. This disconnect between theory and ground realities has deepened Kenya’s economic woes, proving that academic brilliance must be tempered with practical applicability.

In summary, these five fatal mistakes have significantly undermined the Ruto administration’s credibility and effectiveness. While some errors may be corrected, others leave lasting scars, and the consequences are already evident in the socio-economic state of the country.