In 2017 Flashback: Everybody is busy preparing for the election. Everyone is engrossed with their favorite candidate or political party. In all this activity, in this situation where we are extremely busy, it is very easy to miss something truly important. It’s also easy for things to happen without you noticing until it’s too late.
The man you see on the screen right now holds the lives of many Kenyans in his hands—literally. This is Wafula Chebukati, the chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). Many Kenyans have not forgotten another man, the late Samuel Kivuitu, whose actions in 2007 triggered bloodshed. By his conduct and his announcement of the results, he inadvertently gave the signal that sparked violence.
Chebukati wields the same power today. As a member of Club 1999, you will know that the dynamics surrounding the presidential voting patterns have recently become even more complicated. Let’s take a deeper look at this man.
Chebukati hails from the Bukusu community. For clarity, there is no single tribe called the "Luhya." Instead, there are 17 distinct tribes, clustered together under this title, likely for administrative purposes during colonial times. These tribes are vastly different from one another, but the Bukusu is the largest and most influential among them.
Interestingly, in the 2007 general elections—when Kivuitu’s actions ignited chaos—Chebukati contested the Saboti parliamentary seat against Eugene Wamalwa of Ford-Kenya. He lost. This loss is significant because Ford-Kenya, an opposition party, won in a region seen as an opposition stronghold.
Today, Chebukati holds immense responsibility. His decisions and conduct in overseeing the elections will determine the fate of Kenya.
Now, let’s explore something even more striking. The IEBC chairman, Wafula Chebukati, is a Bukusu. The IEBC CEO, Ezra Chiloba, is also a Bukusu. The chairman of the Jubilee Party elections board, Protus Kebati, is a Bukusu as well. And the chairman of the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC), retired Anglican Archbishop Eliud Wabukala, is yet another Bukusu.
This raises questions, particularly in a country where politics is deeply tribal. Regional balance is supposed to guide such appointments, but here we see key figures in pivotal institutions coming from the same sub-tribe. As long as they deliver free and fair elections, some might argue it doesn't matter. But what do other Luhya sub-tribes think about this?
Let me clarify—I am not being tribalistic. My role as a servant of Club 1999 members is to provide insider information and explain the dynamics at play. Kenya’s politics is tribal, and it would be naive to ignore this reality. It is not my creation; it is simply the way things are.
Now, as we approach the elections, I must highlight that the Bukusu community, historically aligned with the opposition, is undergoing a significant shift. The Bukusu were at the forefront of Kenya’s first liberation, with leaders like Masinde Muliro among the first elected African representatives. They also played a key role in the second liberation, fighting for the freedoms we enjoy today.
Yet now, there is an apparent realignment. During Moi’s era, the Bukusu were among the few communities that openly opposed his regime. But today, their political leanings seem to surprise many observers.
I’ve previously reported that one of NASA’s principals is a Jubilee mole, and I named that individual—a Bukusu leader. Why this sudden shift by a community with such a strong history of opposition? This question cannot be ignored, especially given the Bukusu’s significant voting bloc within the Luhya community.
The Bukusu constitute about 34% of the Luhya population—a substantial share of votes. Their decisions will likely influence the outcome of the upcoming elections. Some Bukusu leaders argue that their community has been part of the government since 2003, implying a desire to maintain that status. However, the dynamics are far more complex, as I’ve explained in detail in Club 1999.
In conclusion, Wafula Chebukati’s role as IEBC chairman will have a profound impact on the election. The pressures and forces around him will influence whether we get a free and fair election or not.
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