The day ICC cases came back to haunt Jubilee

  

 The famous phrase, "Houston, we have a problem," resonates with our current political climate in Kenya. Just as man landed on the moon and faced unexpected challenges, Kenya’s political landscape is grappling with a significant issue: the rise of independent candidates. In an earlier recording, I predicted that independent candidates would play a historic and influential role in our elections. However, I underestimated their true impact, which has now become evident.

Both major presidential candidates have responded aggressively to the growing influence of independents. President Uhuru Kenyatta, through his representatives, addressed the matter indirectly. Speaking in Mandera, his representatives stated, "The Constitution allows independent candidates," emphasizing legality but showing discomfort with their rising power. They further warned independents not to impose conditions on presidential candidates, a clear sign of concern within Jubilee's camp.

On the NASA side, Raila Odinga took a more direct approach, urging his supporters not to vote for independents. His stance, echoed by other NASA leaders like Kalonzo Musyoka, highlighted the confusion independents bring to the political arena. But what’s the real issue with independents? Presidential candidates require cohesive support in Parliament, the Senate, and county assemblies to push policies. An opposition-dominated legislature would frustrate the president’s agenda, hindering governance and allowing the opposition to claim the president achieved nothing.

Independents further complicate matters because they lack allegiance to any party. Even if they initially support a president, they can be easily swayed by incentives from opposing parties. This fluid loyalty can erode a president’s numbers in Parliament, leaving them vulnerable. Given Kenya’s politics, where money plays a significant role, it’s not hard to imagine independents switching sides for financial gains.

The fear is amplified because many independents are strong candidates with high chances of winning. This reality spells a nightmare for presidential aspirants, especially Jubilee, where the situation appears even more dire. In the second part of this discussion, I will delve deeper into why Jubilee’s concerns are particularly severe.

Switching gears, another contentious issue has re-emerged: the ICC cases. Investigative journalists in Germany have uncovered leaked documents implicating former ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo. These revelations accuse Ocampo of enabling key suspects in Kenya’s post-election violence cases to evade justice, possibly in exchange for bribes. The evidence is detailed and credible, given the reputation of the investigative team and the media outlet involved.

This development reopens wounds from the 2007–2008 post-election violence. Despite significant efforts to gather evidence, the ICC cases ended without any prosecutions, leaving victims without justice. Many Kenyans fail to grasp the gravity of the violence, but the horrors—like the story of a young child crying beside their bludgeoned mother—remain etched in the memories of those who lived through it. Justice for such victims is long overdue, and these new revelations have brought the matter back to Kenya’s doorstep.

The implications are far-reaching. Media worldwide are scrutinizing Kenya again, questioning how the ICC cases were handled and alleging misconduct by Ocampo. This scrutiny could strain relations between Kenya’s government and international partners, especially in light of the controversial 2017 elections and ongoing human rights concerns. Recent police actions against peaceful demonstrators have further tarnished the government’s image, compounding the fallout from the ICC revelations.

As investigations unfold, the repercussions will undoubtedly influence Kenya’s political and diplomatic landscape. Stay tuned for part two, where I will explore the deeper consequences of these developments.