Is somebody sabotaging JUBILEE from within?

 

To be an effective political analyst, no detail is too small. In this political season, it is crucial to follow every detail because everything in politics happens for a reason. When you see a political party or politician making a move, there is always an objective behind it. This is not a time for haphazard actions; every move counts.

In recent weeks, we’ve seen the UK party undergo a significant transformation. You might recall when the ERT (presumably a coalition) was formed, merging with Jubilee to unite various small parties. The idea behind this was to consolidate the support of smaller parties into a single entity, without forming a coalition, essentially creating one dominant party. The strategy had solid reasoning, particularly in reducing internal division and strengthening control over primaries by preventing defections post-nomination. The goal was to avoid divisions and create a unified party under Jubilee, but in reality, it faced major setbacks.

The implementation of this strategy wasn’t smooth. The party struggled to convince smaller parties to merge, and there was a lot of back-and-forth in the process. Even after the merger, things didn’t go as planned. Some of the small parties grew stronger as they defected and positioned themselves as significant contenders. If you observe, for instance, the profile of the "low chapter" party, it is now one to watch closely.

Recently, the Jubilee party has undergone a major shift, with the president now welcoming smaller parties supporting his re-election. This is a smart political move, but it’s worth analyzing what led to this turnabout. As I’ve mentioned before, someone within the Jubilee party has made numerous missteps, weakening the party and diminishing the president's vote base. It’s clear that the deputy president, William Ruto, was not involved in these decisions. A political veteran like him would have known better. Instead, the party entrusted someone inexperienced with high-level decisions, leading to avoidable blunders.

One such mistake was the handling of Nairobi primaries. The exclusion of the popular politician, SoCo, was a major error. SoCo, despite not being highly polished, had immense grassroots support. His exclusion gave rise to negative narratives that alienated potential voters, as it appeared to reinforce a tribal or elitist agenda. Additionally, the focus on academic qualifications became a significant point of contention. This issue, which was made public in a very aggressive manner, inadvertently alienated many voters. Many of the electorate, particularly the poor and less educated, felt discriminated against, as they were unable to meet such academic criteria.

This decision created a divide between the "educated" elite and the less privileged, and many voters felt disconnected from the party. In politics, every vote counts, and such mistakes can be devastating. These actions have had a lasting negative impact on the party’s base, and it’s crucial for Jubilee to realize the gravity of these errors.

Furthermore, defections began well before the primaries, especially in areas like Embu. Many candidates saw the internal conflict within Jubilee and chose to leave, joining other parties like Mandela’s or Chop-Chop. This shift has weakened the party’s position.

These blunders are not just internal party issues; they have significant implications for the upcoming election. While Jubilee will still secure support from rural areas like Central Kenya, there will be serious challenges in urban centers where voters are more aware of these issues.

As we look ahead, it’s essential for the Jubilee leadership to correct these mistakes before it’s too late. The party’s reputation and the success of its candidates depend on addressing these errors. Ignoring these concerns will be a grave mistake. If the leadership doesn't take immediate action, it will be a shame for the party and a disappointment to its supporters, who are relying on them for change. It’s time for serious reflection and corrective measures to ensure a successful election.