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Saturday, May 08, 2010

Kumekucha survey: How Kenyans will vote in the referendum




In the last referendum in 2005, Kumekucha was a very new blog and I must admit that I was pretty inexperienced. The result is that I predicted a win then for the yes camp after a very brief poll across only 3 provinces. That mistake still haunts me to this day.

And so this time I was taking no chances. When I started out, surveying Kenyans all over the country, the initial impression was that the vote was going to be pretty close, though still in favour of YES. Mainly because of the voter registration. It emerged that many of those in the “No” camp were much more passionate and had registered to vote in the referendum. Many of those loudly announcing that they would vote YES had not registered as voters and had no intention of doing so. I suspected that the churches were doing a good job getting their followers to register to defeat the Kadhi courts draft constitution.

However the situation quickly changed. The most stunning realization was just how much more aware the Kenyan voting public is today. They are pretty difficult to mislead. Folks I was absolutely amazed. Those politicians spreading falsehoods should realize that those old tricks are no longer viable with the vast majority of Kenyans.

I can now authoritatively report that the Yes vote will win by a massive landslide. The feeling amongst Kenyans is that the new constitution is much better than the current one because it empowers the ordinary mwananchi much more. Many Kenyans feel that although it is not perfect it is a good beginning in changing Kenya in the right direction. Prepare yourselves for a massive 75% YES vote when the vote is over and the results start coming in.

My heart goes out to the church in Kenya. They have some very legitimate concerns. The problem is that they did not have an effective strategy. The church found itself in the very unfamiliar territory of the new Kenya politics and did not even look for a consultant to advice them accordingly. The feeling was that the same old tricks used during the Moi era of calling press conferences would have the desired effect. It did not. Part of the reason is the massive loss of credibility in the church and its’ leaders after the post election troubles of early 2008 where the church divided Kenyans and helped fan the violence. In fact there is a section in the long KNHRC list of post election violence suspects that is headed “Men of God” and lists a number of ordained church ministers.

But all is not lost (and this is one of the things that I love most about the draft constitution). What the church has to do now is to prepare to oppose the clauses they do not like when the new constitution is enacted. I would advice that they put the abortion clause aside for the time being (besides in my view there is nothing wrong with this clause) and focus on the Kadhi courts. All they need is a million signatures to trigger the process of changing that and when it comes to the referendum they should easily be able to win that one. Although there will be the question of insensitivity against the rights of a minority group, in this case the muslims.

The mood in many parts of Kenya at the moment is the same one you get shortly before a general election when the president has dissolved parliament and called a general election and all that people are waiting for is the election date. Sadly there are many parts of the country where Kenyans feel deeply traumatized as they approach another ballot box situation after the last one caused so much death and suffering. In the last few days I have talked to many Kenyans who lost loved ones and others who described harrowing experiences that they still cannot wipe out of their minds. When you hear a small pop-like explosion inside a burning building, what does the sound mean? It usually means a human stomach exploding as a result of the heat from the flames. I am told it is a terrible haunting sound that can never really leave you.

There is no doubt on my mind that the troubles of 2008 are one of the main catalysts that has helped push for reforms before the next general elections. Had it not happen, it is unlikely that we would now be on the verge of a new constitution. So in a way all those poor Kenyans who died such terrible deaths did not die in vain.

This is a reminder that the price we have paid for this new constitution is way too high. So high that I will not hesitate to vote YES, YES.

30 comments:

Phil said...

Chris

For once and after a very long time, you are talking sense.

The idea that sneaking a presidential system into the draft for adoption would make ODM oppose the constitution has backfired badly!

It is now ODM that is leading in its support for the YES vote. The V-P and his ODM-K are wavering (read protecting themselves from a cabinet sack) but in all sense and purposes, they are NO, like ODM-K Chairman Porghisio confirmed last week. What a waste of a human being this Kalonzo Musyoka is.....

KANU and Uhuru Kenyatta are saying YES, NO, NO, YES NO, NOOO! The same goes fro William Ruto and his cabal of idlers calling themselves MPs. They claim opposition to land clauses, simply because they want the rest of us to remain squatters in our country forever. Moi misused the Kalenjin for 50 years. Ruto is trying very hard to position himself to continue that legacy. Thank God for civic education and ODM campaigns, it aint happening! Rift Valley will give the new draft nothing less than 70% support.

The funny thing here is that these people wanted a constitution made with 2012 in mind. But now that ODM/Raila are saying YES, these people who made the constitution in Naivasha want to say NO. The constitution making process was never about posterity but about taming the tsunami that is Raila Odinga.

Kenyans can see all that. Debate about pro-life and Kadhi's courts are just but diversionary tactics.

Barring any stupid moves by the other side; I can see new dawn for this country. It will climax in 2012 when we go back tot he ballot and the new constitution becomes effective.

Mwarang'ethe said...

I can now authoritatively report that the Yes vote will win by a massive landslide. The feeling amongst Kenyans is that the new constitution is much better than the current one because it empowers the ordinary mwananchi much more. Many Kenyans feel that although it is not perfect it is a good beginning in changing Kenya in the right direction. Prepare yourselves for a massive 75% YES vote ...

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Habari Chris.

You and Phil are now in agreement. Sawasawa tuu. However, we shall keep on reminding you guys that, nothing will change for Wanjiku for we surbodinating reason to passion. We have seen this movie before in SA.

In our last article, we mentioned Article 231 which gives the CBK "independence" as one of the most dangerous clause in this so called "new constitution."

We added that, this clause means "the CBK shall not be answerable to the Kenyan people. Therefore, we have surrendered the greatest power, i.e. MONEY as Esau surrendered his birthright."

It seems that, most people in the 21st Century are very unfortunately yet to appreciate how a corrupt money system is at the root of the economic, social and political evils we see around.

If you doubt what we are saying, please watch this video from the USA House of Reps entitled:

"Rep. Alan Grayson: You Own the Red Roof Inn, Thanks to the Fed."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pE3oiKuU8UI&feature=player_embedded#!

More so, if you wanna see how this evil money system we are about to entrench is doing, please see this chart:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02marsh.html?ref=weekinreview

Here we see Europe and USA being brought down by the same monetary system we delude ourselves will save Wanjiku. Come on.

However, we understand that, as Orwell said, "during times of universal deceit, telling the truth is revolutionary."

M. Pesa said...

Chris seem to have taken all those right words straight out of my mouth. I have said it before that I will definitely vote YES. What we should be looking at now is that since Yes vote will win by a landslide, how will the post referendum politics shape up? Apart from the pea brain church leaders, who will be the other losers and winners? I'm pretty sure the credibility of the church will be forever dented. They miserably failed to read the mood on the ground and Kenyans will severely punish them for going against the grain and rightly so. You ignore the voices of the masses at your own peril. It's useless whining that it's the PM and ODM who are the only leading lights in the Yes campaign. The winners will be all Kenyans regardless of their diverse backgrounds. And refusing to vote yes coz of one just one clause is pretty pathetic!

Phil said...

Blogger MPESA said....

It's useless whining that it's the PM and ODM who are the only leading lights in the Yes campaign.


So who invited your USEFUL comment about us whinning, and which individual or group have you seen actively campaigning for this draft apart from ODM, and perhaps COTU?

Some so called pundits think their opinion instantly becomes factual merely because they read Kumekucha?

Mwarang'ethe said...

And refusing to vote yes coz of one just one clause is pretty pathetic!

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Mr Mpesa, your arguments like many we hear, are nothing but, wholesale arguments which are not informed by experience and an appreciation of how law works. In that sense, they are pathetic.

The best way is to base your arguments on what we know and not mere opinions. In you world, a mere clause is nothing. Let us demonstrate how powerful a single clause can be.

In 1970's, so as to avoid IMF/WB in the 1970's due to "oil crisis" many 3rd world government went to Anglo American bank syndicates.

These syndicates extracted ONE SIMPLE CLAUSE pioneered by Manufacturers Hanover. It was this.

All Eurodollar loans were fixed at a specified premium over and above the London Inter - Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR).

This rate would fall and rise depending on interest levels in London and New York. Before the summer of 1979, this simple clause was an innocous precondition needed to borrow to finance oil deficits.

However, when Thatcher and FED (USA) raised rates from an average of 7% in early 1978 to about 20% by early 1980, all 3rd world nations were crippled.

Once crippled, IMF/WB came with SAPS and recolonised us. Millions of 3rd world people have paid with their lives because of this simple clause. If you are aware of such history, you understand the importance of some clauses in a constitution.

To Phil, we ask this:

It is 2012 and Raila has won elections and become the President. To create jobs he needs low interest rates.

To do so, he asks the CBK governor "to do something." However, in response, the governor, reminds Raila of Article 231 of the New Constitution.

In such a scenario, what will Raila do to create jobs for restless young Kenyans who would have believed his promise to create millions of jobs?

luke said...

Welcome back Chris, and please forget about immigrating to Dubai hata kama they promise you BLACK GOLD

you are overqualified for those guys reject the visa offer and stop pulling those long disappearing acts bro

Anonymous said...

I fully concur!

Anonymous said...

Mwarang'ethe,
There you go again with your overbearing sermons. So far 2/7 posts and counting: BRAVADO.

Please stop the obsession with your pet shubject money. For once accept that you are not an EXPERT in everything (oh sorry you are a sociologist-know all).

Your UTOPIAN prescription to everything makes you armed exclussively with a hammer and so all else are nails. Your cheap rebellion packaged as intellectualism is nuseating at best. Accept that you don't/can't have answers for everything.

Just wait for money/land related article so that you can send us to sleep with your monologues trolled from the net punctuated with Bob Marley and biblical quotes, will you?

Anonymous said...

Dear Kumekuchans,

Don't over-sex your emotions about the "Yes" side winning. Of course, it was going to win the moment you saw Kibaki and Raila saying "Yes." I repeat, don't be like these two intellectuals (from a certain community) we listened to in our watering hole talk so excitedly about the Katiba that one would have thought that manna was going to come the following day after the referendum. It was not until the the manager assisted by other patrons almost threw them out that they realized what a nuisance their emotionalized discussion was!

The issue is no longer whether the katiba will pass or which party is championing it; no, the issue is the hard work awaiting all of us in translating the katiba into reality. Some areas of the katiba may take generations to start bearing fruits; but it will ultimately it pay divindeds if we implement it with somberness.

This time, unlike in 2005, the referendum will not break or make political careers. This is not an ODM/Raila versus Kalonzo/ODM-K/Uhuru/Ruto affair as Phil would like us to emotionally believe. We, the people of Kenya, reject that simplistic and antaonistic dichotomy. The new Katiba is about all of us and the future of our beloved country. For thoe of us who are voting "Yes," let us respect the rights of hose who are voting "No." Let us not divide people into "us versus adui yetu" type of primitive politics that almost sunk our nation in 2007-2008.

Anonymous said...

Interesting read but da percentage is over ambitious. Any where time is da bst counselor. I personally luk 4ward 2 ur apology. 90 days is a long long time. Personally i dont see any political gudwil 2 amend anything nt now or later. Da No camp ve issues wich wari sme of us. They mit b few bt dangerous 4 dis country. May God ve mercy.

Anonymous said...

The vote will be a YEs but not 75%, I will put it at 66% brother.

Anonymous said...

By Mutahi Ngunyi

The Gema nation colonized Kenya's presidency after independence.

The Gema Nation is politically sneaky. They often conceal their intentions. That is why its position on this referendum is not bankable. In fact, its leaders are either silent or vague. If they vote “Yes”, they will abandon Mr Odinga after the referendum.

The Gema nation are either setting Raila up or using him. But what would happen, for instance, if they abandoned him before the referendum?

Jijazieni

Would you call this deceit? If politics is deceit, I would call this politics. And although the President is “asleep”, I would credit him with the scheme. In sum, he has not changed.

Anonymous said...

As it was then, it is now and will be forever.

That seems to be the mantra of the majority clergy in Kenyan. Unbeknown to them that times, people and their very own 'wise' followers have changed, are in the process of changing and will continue to change in many ways than one.

A small history lesson: Opponents objected that there were 'only three tongues worthy of praising God in the Scriptures, Hebrew, Greek and Latin', on the grounds that these were the languages affixed to Chrit's cross. 'Falls not God's rain upon all equally? And shine not the sun also upon all?' retorted [......]

Let the clergy fill in the blank [.......] before they resort to proclaiming "give to Caesar what is Caesar's and to God what's God's."

Why? The 'Caesar' in question won the day for the church and saved the church from self destruction and perishing for centuries ff.

Ironically, Kenyans have three ways in which they will have to vote on the referendum:
i)'Yes'.
ii)'No'.
iii)'UD' (undecided).

With all eyes and ears set on the current referendum, the mantra is now beginning to sound as give to the people what is the people's and to the churches what is the churches'. But give Kenya what Kenya really deserves for the next fifty or more years.

Let our people vote for a better future, a better constitution, a better nation and a better place to call our homeland for all Kenyans.

FYI, dissent is not schism nor is it heresy.

Let our people decide for themselves and live with the outcome thereafter.

Anonymous said...

With the Gema Nation on the "Yes" side, if the "No" side gets 25%, it will be a great achievement for the NO crowd, and they will instantly get some respect for coalition building purposes in 2012.

Anonymous said...

Mwarangethe,

You are dead right. Actually, even the road to heaven is narrow and few will walk that path just like the NO guys. But its the right road.
Ignore gutter journalist Phil of Jukwaa who has to squeeze his 65 year old hair dyeing octogenarian sloth in every argument, him and Miguna are just parasites hoping to reap economic benefits if their baba gets to the ever elusive house on the hill. They are hoping that a YES win will catapult their sloth to state house.
As for Chris, his predictions has been so wrong before that one pities this latest attempt to copy paste Synovate polls and own them. Seems his great auntie from Ukambani lost his powers to consult the underworld.

I am with Mwarangethe, we vote NO.

Nimesema

Mwarang'ethe said...

Please stop the obsession with your pet shubject money. For once accept that you are not an EXPERT in everything (oh sorry you are a sociologist-know all).

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sir, if you look at Article 2(5), of this wonderful constitution of yours, it says that:

"The general rules of international law shall form part of the law of Kenya.

What does international law mean here? And, does that rule out Kenya ever becoming a persistent objector?

Also, Article 2(6) says "Any treaty or convention ratified by Kenya shall form part of the law of Kenya under this constitution."

So, if Kibaki goes to Uganda and signs away Migingo as a gift to Uganda, what options will you have to object to such a treaty?

If only Kenyans could pause and think about what they are doing, they would see the real import of such clauses.

However, since all matters is a "new constitution" you guys go ahead. But, with the fullness of time, we shall be vindicated.

Anonymous said...

The problem with Kenyans is their perpetual whining and not offering solutions to anything.

Sample this:
Also, Article 2(6) says "Any treaty or convention ratified by Kenya shall form part of the law of Kenya under this constitution."

So, if Kibaki goes to Uganda and signs away Migingo as a gift to Uganda, what options will you have to object to such a treaty?

HOW THEN SHOULD IT READ? WHAT LANGUAGE SHOULD BE USED? OR SHOULD IT JUST BE SCRAPPED. BE USEFUL!

Mwarang'ethe said...

Sample this:
Also, Article 2(6) says "Any treaty or convention ratified by Kenya shall form part of the law of Kenya under this constitution."

So, if Kibaki goes to Uganda and signs away Migingo as a gift to Uganda, what options will you have to object to such a treaty?

HOW THEN SHOULD IT READ? WHAT LANGUAGE SHOULD BE USED? OR SHOULD IT JUST BE SCRAPPED. BE USEFUL!

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Mwarang'ethe does not just whine. He has written to the COE and other responsible persons in Kenya on issues we keep on raising here.

Simply, we have three branches of govenment. The executive, the parliament and the judiciary.

It should be obvious to all, including idiots that, the reason we have parliament is to ensure that, laws are made with the input of the masses thru their elected leaders.

Now, we have a constitution telling us that, the executive will have the powers to negotiate any and all kinds of treaties and make them binding on us without our inputs.

In other words, we have given the executive branch the executive and legislative powers. In that case, if the President wants to amend the constitution, all he needs to do is ratify a treaty and such treaty becomes our laws. Is this the best Kenyans can do? And, What democracy is this?

As concerns meaning of international law, does it mean general principles of IL, treaty law or international customary law?

And, what if these general rules as they are called here contradict this wonderful constitution?

The question of IL cannot be handled in such a kienyeji manner. However, since all Kenyans want is a new constituion, please go ahead, but, we warn thee, the price to be paid will be high.

Anonymous said...

There were three Kenyan-born candidates standing for UK elections but two lost narrowly (just by few mere votes), and one won comprehensively, but what is interesting, there were ALL Kikuyus!
which make me conclude it is easier for a Kikuyu to win a seat in UK than in Nyanza! The same can be said with Luos, it is easier for them to win presidency in US than in Kenya.

Let's pray Kenya one day will do away with tribal politics and people will be elected not on the bases of their tribes but on their electability.


Kumekucha Princess

Anonymous said...

Breaking News
Kenyan politics aka PEV? has claimed its first big Fish. CID Director is DEAD.
Are we going to see the the Late Dr. R. Ouko's scenario repeated here people!
Watch the space

Anonymous said...

Kumekucha Princess,

More power to the 'Kenya' woman who won a seat in the UK, and more power to Muslim canddidates who won seats in the UK as well.

However, when will educated people like you ever pull themselves out from the old time sickening pangs of tribal brooding and gloating?

Why must your so called intellectual discourse or rather 'usual parochial comments' on various Kenyan sites end up in 'Kikuyu this versus Luo that', or that ethnicity versus this ethnicity?

BTW, who really cares whether the next Queen of England, President of EU, or King of Spain comes from a particular village in Kenya or Africa for that matter?

How many sufuria of ugali, githeri or rice will it translate it for the people from their particular villages and regions? ZERO! SUFURI!

You know what, it's almost mid May 2010, I am just fed up, sick and tired of tribal goons wherever they are in the diaspora as well as back home in Kenya.

When will your kind rise up from the cesspool of destructive ethnic competition?

Anonymous said...

@Anon 3:02 AM

You're trying to be silly. You know all too well I have no bone of tribalism in me. All my comments here are full of satire but nonetheless very precise, informative and very articulate. In fact there is no other woman in this blog who is as vocal and passionate in my cause than me!

You saw how I defended my Somali brothers and sisters (with my other handle Phil's mistress) when Chris was running a campaign in trying to demonise them.
It is here: http://kumekucha.blogspot.com/2010/01/kenyas-security-stuff-that-kenyans-dont.html

So deal with your insecurities/tribal intolerance and leave me out of it, will you please…

Kumekucha Princess

Philip said...

The first reality we need to know:

As long as Kibaki, Raila and the media are supporting the constitution then it doesn't matter who are the majority, if "No" becomes the majority then "Yes" will still win. It's a sad fact. The church has entered politics that it doesn't understand. It should be noted that the IIEC is not yet independent.

I got the new constitution and I've started reading some of the clauses.

I realised Moi's fear is based on what the MPs can do. Generally the constitution has placed so much power in the MPs or members of the National Asembly as they are called.

There are issues in the constitution which are good as I've been told but I'm yet to confirm however for the few I've read the powers are so much in the Mps and not the people of Kenya as some people think.

Those who know politics of Kenya know very well that there is no connection between our Mps and the people, apart from the connection that is there after 5 years prior to election.

The constitution, unfortunately, has not created that connection, because of Clause 104 (2), which provides the same Mps powers to come up with grounds with which they themselves will be recalled - only a fool will select the best rope to hang himself.

Going back, Moi's fear is based on Clause 68 (c) i. Whose powers has been left to Mps. This is among the clauses that have been left hanging and on the mercy of our Mps. If we get good Mps then we should expect good things ahead, however if we get bad Mps then nothing wll reaaly change in areas being affected by the clauses I've mentioned.

I'll keep on reading and commenting on clauses then at last I'm going to declare my stand. The two clauses (Recall of Mps and Land), which are very few that I cannot make my stand on, are so much dependent on what Mps will finally enact. There are more of a house that has been built but our Mps will in future need to put furniture in it. If they put right furniture then it will ne finally good, if they put wrong furniture then it will be bad.

Kirgitt said...

We'll get a new constitution, that's for sure. But i think this issue of making the Gema seem like the only one capable of charting Kenya's destiny a very risky theory. One reason, and one reason only is that, those days are gone, and if push comes to shove, like we saw in 2005 and 2007, Kenyans could end up uniting to destroy that reality, however long it takes.
I think Kenyans in the Diaspora, others who blog here, who've sold their citizenships due to dubious marriages and other;s who've sought green card in the US are less qualified to debate and stoke emotions they can't diffuse.Troublemakers i say, and i dare them to return home and see to it that Kenya gets a new lease of life:rather than wax silly over the internet

Philip said...

Let me also comment on the issue of Kadhi courts:

I've heard arguements from Christians and their arguements has one presumption, that Islam is evil and a wrong religion. If two people debate on this presumption rather than directly on the issue of Kadhi court then they will automatically come up with an answer to the issue of Kadhi court.

The problem majority of Christians have issues with Kadhi court is because they believe Islam is evil and violence, something I personally disagrees with and which can easily lead to my excommunication from the church. Statistics shows that more Muslim have died under Christians that Christians have died under Muslims.

Anonymous said...

"As concerns meaning of international law, does it mean general principles of IL, treaty law or international customary law?"

So how would you change that article to IMPROVE it??? What's so difficult with providing an example, since you appear to know the issue so well?

Anonymous said...

Kumekucha Princess,
Please have an honest look at the mirror and see who is silly. Your claim of being robust and articulate is only sympotomatic of a small mind expanded to the circumference of your head.

Otherwise why would you argue defensively by pointing us to previous posts? FYI insecurity manifests itself in all your posts hence your SLUTTY nomenclature.

You are an exported BIGOT and the village thrives in your blood stream from without. You simply cheerlead others's post and nothing of substance of your own.

But thanks for your emotional PLURALITY, provide to those with the right sized impements.

What a SLUTTY bitch online?

Anonymous said...

WHY DOES THIS BLOG ALLOW ANONYMOUS BLOGGERS? WHY CANT YOU FORCE GUYS TO GET IDS BEFORE CONTRIBUTING? I HAVE THIS FEELING ONLY THREE PEOPLE BLOG HERE BUT COZ THEY ARE ANON THEY LOOK LIKE VERY MANY - AND ABUSIVE BIGOTS!!

Anonymous said...

why would christians not believe that islam is a religion of violence? where is evidence to the contrary?

Anonymous said...

ooh im from gema and you dont know what kenyans have realised we do not follow religious leaders anymore so just wait for aug the fourth we might just pull a suprise on you again the contentious issues must be looked at

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