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Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Then… drama

Headed to the Hague: The names that will not miss on Ocampo’s list

Luis Moreno Ocampo: The nightmare for impunity in Kenya that will not go away.

What an eventful day for mother Kenya. Wow!!! As I write this I am still trying to absorb it all.

The following news items have really gripped me over the last few hours.

1. ICC special prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo got the nod to proceed with prosecutions against those most responsible for Kenya’s post-election violence. Read this CNN report.

2. All signs in parliament today were that we are headed to yet another divisive referendum where the Kenyan people will get incited once again to vote on either side. Kenyans will remember this was one of the main triggers that finally led to the 2007 election violence.

3. TJRC chairman Bethuel Kiplagat displaying a total lack of understanding of the situation dug in his heels and moved quickly to replace the vacant Vice chair position. He told reporters “many people have also asked me not to resign…” as if this is a mere political battle of wits.

I don’t intend to bore you good people with a news summary of events but my point here is that there is a link between the three separate events. Ocampo and Kenyan’s victory is most welcome and it is the biggest blow against impunity in the history of Kenya. The biggest!!! By far!!!

The second event took place where the perpetrators of impunity against the Kenyan people have been gathering and plotting for years. For some reason the circus going on in the house reminded me of a trapped snake wriggling and pretending that it can still escape when it is so obvious that the end is nigh.

The last event was classic. It was impunity in person still pretending that he is boss. Bethuel Kiplagat has said mupende musipende he MUST serve you as the TJRC chair.

Kenya’s future is now beginning to get fairly clear. The announcement from the Hague has set in motion a chain of events that promise to be extremely dramatic, but don’t bring out the Champaign yet, in fact this is the time to take cover. The political class and those being investigated will fight this thing with all they have, and more. Some witnesses will grew fabulously rich overnight at about the time that they will start displaying a terrible bout of amnesia especially over events that occurred around December 2007 and January 2008. Others will disappear from the face of the earth. I wonder if we will be told that some poor guy with gun shot wounds broke his leg, battered himself silly, shot themselves in the head and then carefully doused themselves with petrol and set themselves on fire etc. etc. Remember the amazing theories on the Ouko murder?

Meanwhile every trick in the book will be used (I don’t want to believe that Ocampo suspects will call political meetings to tell their supporters that they are being finished, but I am afraid that is quite likely to happen.)

Everybody is curious about who is on the Waki list which is what Ocampo relied on heavily to get his consent to prosecute. Interestingly Ocampo has already detailed how he is going to go ahead with the prosecution.

Firstly he will deal with the ODM perpetrators of the violence who started the whole thing after the elections were stolen. And then he will take on the PNU supporters who retaliated to the initial ODM attacks. Don’t you love the way the guy has simplified it all? And as I have said it here before, that is exactly what happened.

What this means is that you will not fail to see William Ruto and Elizabeth Ongoro from ODM and Uhuru Kenyatta and Kabando wa Kabando from the PNU wing indicted for the Hague.

High drama ahead folks, high drama indeed.

To end this post let me reveal something that I sense. This is also based on what I hear Kenyans on the ground saying. All indications are that we are headed to the referendum with the politicians badly divided. But there is a high possibility that the Kenyan people (at least the majority) will turn deaf ears to their politicians and vote YES on the draft constitution thus pulling out the rug from under the feet of the political class. That my dear friends will be magical…


P.S. For those Kenyans getting a little weary over this revisiting of post elections violence and who believe that we should move on, please read this very sick page from the Waki report (published in Kumekucha some time back) and then tell me with a straight face that we should forgive and forget. And that Ocampo did bad.

18 comments:

Abdulahi said...

Whatever the case may be, even a mention of one's name in the list automatically destroys one's political standing. A criminl tag hangs on his/her neck and he/she can't move beyond his/her village. The fate that will befall many a notorious tribal bigot is dreadful indeed.

I hope Kenya emerges better out of this.

Anonymous said...

I have been telling you people (and so has Chris) that the Hague would decide the destiny of Kenya but you guys laughed me off. Eti it will take years to indict anybody, eti it will be 20 years before the trials start.

Ehe, tell me another now.

Chris said...

Forgot to mention this in my main post.

Will a place based in a country part of which has been reclaimed from the sea help Kenyans reclaim their country from the sea of impunity?

-Kumekucha-

Anonymous said...

The indiction taking 20 years is not what matters, mentioning one's name as Abdulah observed is what matters. Secondly, Kenyan minions aren't Sudan's Al Bashir who can sell his petrol to China and get a veto. Kenyan minions will be thrown under the bus sooner than you can imagine. To hell with them.

Anonymous said...

TWO HISTORIC EVENTS!!!!!!

1. Ocampo was finally authorized to investigate tribal and genocidal impunity in Kenya.

2. The tribal majimbos as proposed by ODMorons through James Orengo were defeated in the parliament.

NB. That means that ODM & PNU tribal warlords are in the crosshairs of the ICC, and more importantly, ODM must find another campaign platform for 2012 divorced from the "kabila adui" genocidal war cry.

Anonymous said...

I hope Raila will be couragious enough to go to Hague and defend his murderous supporters as "freedom fighters."

Anonymous said...

Chris:

This is a great day for my uncle who was killed in Turi (near Molo) for voting the "wrong way." Now his bones can RIP on his three acres which the tribal genocidaires were trying to disposses him.

Anonymous said...

With Majimbo gone and Ocampo in town, Kalonzo can now sit tight and wait for coronation: The presidency is his for easy taking come 2012.

Anonymous said...

Dear ODMers,
Let us rally together and vote down the mutilated constitution in the referendum. There is no divolution in this silly thing, just PNU political masterbation. How can will live with ourselves? Our Captain must damp all his advisers and start anew. This is terrible!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Did you see the Luhya MPs join their Kikuyu counterparts walk out parliament chambers to kill the regional govt amendment proposal? I thought Gumo and his fellow Luhyas were in ODM. These fellows are closetted PNUers. They are a shame to the spirits of their ancestors.

Anonymous said...

Anon @2:29PM

The Luhyas and Kikuyus have similar interests in the RV. The Luhyas are interested in Trans Nzoi being separate from RV and Kikuyus are interested in Nakuru and Laikipia being separate from RV. Those two interests killed the idea of the region as a devolution unit. These two communities plus Kisiis have suffered most whenever there is majimbo talk in the RV and they will do anything to oppose majimboism. I don't blame them, once bitten, twice shy.

Hery said...

wow, it's information good

Anonymous said...

Chris,

Ocampo got the nod to investigate, not to prosecute. After investigations he will go back to the pretrial chamber to convince the judges that warrants should be issued.

On federalism, there is no doubt that Kenya could be served well by a federal system of gava but the word "majimbo" will always stand in the way. To many kenyans majimbo means "go back to your ancestral province". It seems raila allowed orengo to move this amendment in order to appease kalenjins. However another important pillar of ODM is not for majimbo. This is the luhyia. In kenya tribe interests tramp everything else. Nothing can be called a party position.

Hery said...

good, i like it

Philip said...

I'm still pessimist Ocampo will prosecute the bigwigs of post election violence. I highly doubt if Uhuru and Ruto will be prosecuted. I see there will be lack of evidence. I mean evidence that is supported in our common law. Even if we know Ruto funded the PEV in Rift Valley we don't have any lawfully recognised evidence to support our claims.

My fisrt hope goes again to how Kenyans will treat Ocampo's investigations. As one anonymous has said above, if Kenyans will cease to support whoever will be mentioned in that list then good riddance, but will it be that way? Maybe Uhuru will loose Kikuyu votes because of his name being mentioned in the list but I highly doubt if Ruto will loose votes, there is a likelihood that his votes will solidify more, and he will remain a tribal leader, and he will use his tribal leadership to bargain for power. And by the way those who have been watching news will also see that Ruto is not concerned with other tribes at the moment. He knows he can't get their votes.

My second hope is about the reaction that tribal leaders will have. They will start having fears of inciting people to violence, and in that their is a possibility of reduction of tribal clashes, which is a good step forward and also good for the country.

But I would wish that after making this step we will also think of making other steps that will make Kenya a prosperous country for all Kenyans.

Anonymous said...

Chris,

1. Now that wachenzi majimboist were defeated in parliament, how are they going to stop "foreigners" from being councillors and MPs in Nakuru, Laikipia and Trans Nzoia?

2. Now that land will not be controlled by silly county councils, how are they going to stop the "foreigners" from buying so called "ancestral" lands?

3. Now that certain communities especially the Kikuyus, Kisiis and the Luhya are going to go land buying full throttle, how are majimboists going to stop these "foreigners" from naming the land they buy and the villages they create their vernacular names? Eh?

4. And now that the retrogressive forces of ethnic majimbos wameshidwa when are they unleashing their often threatened armaggedon?

CAVEMEN MUST COME OUT AND SEEK SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THEIR TRIBAL CACOONS, otherwise they will go the way of the dodo. Every Kenyan must be free to buy his acre of land wherever he wants. That is the message of the New Constitution, and I LOVE IT!!!

Anonymous said...

Ocampo should first send the israelis to ICC, When israel attacks palestine isnt that crime agaist humanity?? when hundreds of thousands were killed in Bosnia wasnt that crime against humanity, how about the millions being killed in DR-Congo? The ICC is just another arm of America, just like the UN. Dont bring us the selective justice thing here!

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