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Many Kenyans do not realize the fact that Uhuru Kenyatta is to date the youngest person to ever stand for the highest office in Kenya and he came a very credible second to Mwai Kibaki in 2002.
This year, as I have said before the presidential field will be very crowded and I am expecting a few youngsters which means that chances are high that Uhuru's record will be wiped out. But that is beside the point.
Indications are that Uhuru is losing the battle to remain relevant in the fluid political situation that is Kenya today. Some cheeky friend argued that the fact that Uhuru has yet to present his papers for the ODM nomination process is because he does not want to waste Kshs One million when he knows very well who the ODM presidential candidate is going to be. I of course quickly pointed out to this guy that Kshs 1 million to Uhuru Kenyatta is probably the equivalent of Kshs 5 to most Kenyans. It is nothing. Secondly if ODM were to reason soberly, they would realize that the best way to neutralize the popularity of president Kibaki in Central province would be to nominate Uhuru Kenyatta the presidential candidate for ODM-Kenya. Sadly you and me know that that is close to being an impossibility.
The bitter truth is that a Uhuru Kenyatta who is not a presidential candidate in ODM-Kenya is a man with no options and a parliamentary candidate who could even lose his parliamentary seat. This is the truth that Uhuru's very able think tank must have already communicated to him and my guess is that they have advised him to stay out of ODM and bid his time, because the next few months are going to very eventful and who knows, fate may just throw him a rope. For those who are unaware Uhuru Kenyatta created a think tank around him shortly after the 2002 general elections whose sole purpose was to get him to State House in 2007. They have done an excellent job but alas, the nature of politics is such that the only thing one can be really sure of is the unexpected.
My wild guess is that Uhuru's think tank believe, like I do, that the major alliances for the coming elections have not yet been formed and that chances are high that a third force will position itself for victory fairly close to the time of the polls.
Few Kenyans realize that Uhuru Kenyatta's carefully constructed image today where he is one of the few leaders from the house of Mumbi who is not viewed as a tribal leader, despite representing a Central province constituency, is the result of some very hard work and careful reposition by a think tank that is the best money can buy.
All this seems to have come to nothing. In fact to be brutally honest fate seems to have spat out Uhuru. His best chance to have won the presidency was in 2002. This time around he would have had an almost as decent chance of winning. However 2012 will be a very tall order indeed. The reason is obvious. Kenya has so far had two Presidents from the Kikuyu tribe and chances that we will have another after Kibaki are very slim even to the wild optimist and virtually impossible in the eyes of the realist who understands Kenyan politics.
Only one Kenyan has the ability to excite voters and get them tribally blind at the moment and he does not even seem to be interested at the moment. That man's name is John "One-man-army-against-Anglo-Leasing" Githongo. Incidentally he was also at St Marys High School at about the same time both Uhuru and Jeff Koinange were there.
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I think your guy Uhuru was not born a politician in the first place. He was literary dragged into politics by Arap Moi who wanted a puppet president after his retirement.
ReplyDeleteAs matters stand now, and considering his continued stay as KANU chairman has resulted to continued disintegration of KANU (first the Rainbow Alliance, then the Biwott faction and very soon Ruto faction), Uhuru should be man enough and hold his presidential ambitions so as to back one of the leading ODM luminaries. Afterall, his irregular nomination in 2002 was main reason for New KANUs downfall and this is what the Rainbow alliance did successfully for Kibaki in 2002. He will position himself favourably in the post election political hierarchy and eventually emerge much stronger in 2012 or even 2017. He's got age on his side and he can use the interim period to gain public management and political experience. Meanwhile - Uhuru will have helped Kenyans get rid of the current power dinosaurs in government. A third force will not only fail to make any headway but also boost the current regime chances to stay in power for another five years. Am having nightmares just imagining it!
Tribal politics has not place in the future. But it is very relevant today and only pragmatic and dynamisn will bring about any change. Uhuru should concentrate in Gatundu South, actually his indiffrence has attracted strong opposition and things are quite bad there for him.There is this mistaken belief that Githongo is what Kenya needs.However, that is not important because his 'courage' to confront the Kibaki only makes him a darling to ODM and other opportunists but renders him an enemy of the majority.
ReplyDeleteI mentioned last year that Uhuru should have stuck to his guns and not meddled with the forbidden fruit that is ODM (but like Eve he did and here we are now).
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion this would have endeared him more to Kenyans because this year we are going to see a lot of bed jumping starting with what we've seen from Kamotho. There is going to be alot of blurred lines between NARC-K, ODM and any third party that might form. In the event of this Uhuru would have look stardy enough to garner votes from people who prefer to work hard and not get lost in the quagmire that is Kenyan politics.
But now that he is where he is, it is best he play his cards right and get ready for 2012. What he has that the rest don't have is electioneering experience. Plus his think tank will have another 5 years to sort things out.
All is not lost... tribalism and drama aside I would vote Uhuru any day over the Hummers, Foundations and one million cheque droppers!
Githongo, for me, doesn't factor into any of this at all. I appreciate his role in opening our eyes to the lies of the current government but he isn't someone I would put in the basket this 2007... maybe 2017 when we get to know what he is about.