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Have you ever done this terrible experiment when you were a kid (please don't do it) of putting a bird under water? The bird dies almost instantly, it really has no chance because it was created to fly and so when it is put in the very unfamiliar territory under water, what do you expect?
In a way there is a lesson here about life. To succeed you really must find your territory and your niche. The problem with most of us is that we are birds but we try and convince the world that we can swim. But I digress.
There are those who insist that Joseph Kamotho, the LDP secretary general until his amazing declaration of love for Mwai Kibaki last week, is a fish out of water when it comes to opposition politics. This is a man who is used to playing power games of the kind where one needs to be in government. And although he was on the winning side in 2002 and even had his name on the LDP "cabinet list" that went with the infamous trashed memorandum of understanding that was supposed to guarantee him a seat in Kibaki's cabinet, things did not quite work out that way. And he never came anywhere near Mwai Kibaki's cabinet.
But what did JJ (as his friends call him) expect? Everybody knows that they can't stand each other with the President. What kind of cabinet meetings were they going to have with so much "ice" in the air?
This is the reason why everybody was so shocked when JJ declared his preferred presidential candidate. His Mathioya constituents were naturally delighted.
But why did he do it? As he just being a realist who wants to make it back to parliament or is it true that he was frustrated in ODM? I suspect a little of both. Let us admit that ODM-Kenya is a pretty large party where it is easy to be "drowned" out of being relevant.
But what worries me most are the repercussions of JJ's move last week. I fear that it will awaken the tribal demons that everybody has been so eager to silence. Indeed in the same speech where he declared his support for President Kibaki, Kamotho emphasized that Narc Kenya should be sold aggressively in other parts of the country and that he would love to hear loud support for the party and the President from places like Kisumu, Kakamega and Machakos. These are towns where it is believed that the opposition are pretty strong.
The message is loud and clear and the writing is in the wall. If I may read it for you, it says that in Central province home of the president's tribe, the party to stand with is Narc Kenya and that it is virtually impossible to sell the opposition there. Just like it is virtually impossible to sell Narc Kenya in Luo Nyanza. It is the same message Uhuru Kenyatta supporters are desperately trying to get to him; namely that he should flee Gatundu and stand in Dagoretti constituency in the forthcoming general elections.
That is some pretty bad news for Kenya's budding democracy.
What we are saying is that we needn't bother selling Narc Kenya in certain parts of the country and we also should not waste time trying to sell ODM Kenya in some particular places in the country.
I also believe that it is not a coincidence that JJ has made his move so soon after the Magarini by-elections. Some people read a resounding defeat of ODM in that by-election and an indicator that the party may not be quite popular enough countrywide to carry the day in December. In my opinion, this is not true; politics cannot be analyzed that simply. Then there is the fact that the antics of Magarini cannot be repeated across the country—you just can't print that quantity in title deeds, let alone have enough land to go round in exchange for votes.
Question is: What value real value (read votes) is Kamotho adding to Kibaki's re-election campaign? Or the other way round: How many votes did the ODM loose as a result of Kamotho's defection?
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely none at all.
At least in ODM, he was a useful pawn with a prominent national office. It was an effort to portray ODM as the face of Kenya with all tribes, gender and races represented at national level.
Central Province was the biggest looser in the referendum vote. This need not to happen again just because of selfish interest in NARC Kenya. All Kenyans deserve a chance at leadership positions even if they are a minority!
Minority meaning?
ReplyDeletePhil,
ReplyDeletePlease smart up. There was no loser in the referendum. How many parliamentary seats has ODM won since? Kamotho is a strong politician and powerful, if you really know politics. Baba na Mama had him for all those years as a parrot and he was a force to reckon. It is a great move. Politically yes! ODM has no face.
What would happen if, lets say, we put Chris under water?
ReplyDeleteAnswer: Chris under water may have his lungs transformed into fins in which case he may end up swimming upstream.
ReplyDeleteAnon, we know how much the referendum experiences alienated the central province voters from the rest of the country. It is a fact, the divisions still persist to this day. Perhaps you should tell us - which is the ruling party in Kenya today? Its a complete circus that has left Speaker Ole Kaparo utterly speechless.
ReplyDeleteWe also know that the recent magarini,kisauni and nakuru town by elections were marred by serious irregularities not to mention voter bribery and electioneering malpractices.. Have you been following the Kisauni by-election petition and vote recount?
This is what Chris is trying to tell us - government can zero-in on a by election and influence matters on ground, but it cannot do so on a national scale, say referendum or general election.