Confidential Documents On The Raila Presidency Bid In 2002

archive

THE MORAL IMPERATIVE IN RAILA ODINGA’S QUEST FOR THE PRESIDENCY

CONFIDENTIAL

STRATEGIC INITIATIVE TOWARDS PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION AND EVENTUAL ELECTION OF HON RAILA ODINGA


INTRODUCTION
The prevailing political dispensation in Kenya is overwhelmed by the question of Moi’s ‘safe’ exit from power.

In his quest for a ‘successor’ President Moi is seeking a candidate in whom he can invest not only his personal safety but also one in whom the strategic interests of his legacy would remain intact.

In this regard the ruling party as such is not an instrument of delivery of the “people’s mandate” but rather a conduit through which a new arrangement would ensure that there is continuity of the current regime beyond the elections.

Hence when party instruments become an obstacle to the interests of the incumbent then other state infrastructures may be used to coerce, intimidate and bribe powerful individuals to join in the “grand design” of President Moi. Already enormous resources are being gathered in the grand style of YK 92 .

Given that this type of politics responds and corresponds to the most basic instincts in the struggle for power and survival , rational considerations may obscure our understanding of it.

In so doing, in order to understand the current project , we must depart from conventional rational and constructive analysis of the emerging political situation in the country. The unfolding events reveal not only elements of unpredictability in Moi’s political behaviour but also a stern and stubborn grip on the mantle of power. It is important to understand the nature of this behaviour and the intuitive skills which Moi employs to deploy his choice publicly.

THE UHURU PROJECT
Moi’s choice of Uhuru is obvious twofold purposes:- One, which is most unlikely is to buy time by toying with the issue until last minute. This of course is based on the assumption that Moi has a plan B which he would execute should he concede to the anti Uhuru demands . Second, which is most likely is to seek in Uhuru the mandate of continuity with his legacy. Such a mandate has something to do with the market forces that are operational in Kenya today . Big Kikuyu , Kalenjin and foreign business interests are also playing cards behind the scenes.

Obviously Moi must have anticipated calls of rejection and rebellion against his choice. He must have weighed his options in the event that a situation of internal discord would lead to eventual schism within the party. President Moi is not a democrat and will not succumb to pressure until and when his very survival becomes threatened.

While claiming that everyone has a democratic right to offer themselves as possible candidates, will Moi be willing to concede to the democratic practice in the nomination process? Certainly not. After all, during the merger with NDP was the shameful exclusion of Vice President Saitoti from ‘nomination’ not a hint of the current political rhetoric?

Uhuru may as well be nominated through a process of rigging, intimidation and bribing of the delegates. Take the scenario in which the delegates arrive in Nairobi and intensive canvassing is accompanied with “oiling of hands”. If money can buy power, then Uhuru will certainly become KANU’s torchbearer. Then come the elections, even some Kikuyu legislators may cross over to KANU in support of Uhuru.

Moi intends to divide the Kikuyu votes in order to create a new legacy in which both Luos and Kikuyus are confidently in government. Apparently Luos cannot be trusted (not now) with the instruments of state power. The Luos being considered to have too many grievances with both the Moi and Kenyatta regimes therefore they may be indifferent when forces of justice are unleashed to heal the wounds of history. The timely serialization and propagation of the 1982 coup attempt by the media recently at this point in time is only a hint (I may be over reading the timeliness of the fact but the coincidence with Uhuru project has political implications especially in the international scene ). But why can’t Luos be trusted? Is it their vehement commitment to the “truth value” in public discourse and their way of doing politics? Or is it a fact of history that from the very moment of laying the foundations of this Nation, it is the Luo community that has sacrificed most of her sons to political martyrdom and detention in post- independence struggle for second liberation.

It sends a clear message, the Luos may stage a political coup within KANU that may render Moi helpless after his presidency. Obviously, mine is a mere attempt to excavate attitudes that may inform certain political deceptions including Moi'’ choice of Uhuru and not Raila.

But this is not to suggest that Mois enjoys political omnipotency. In fact we are living in President Moi’s political sunset days. With time and very soon, Moi may have power without authority. And then in few months, very few indeed he will be gone – paving way to a new climate of sobriety (hopefully) in politics. But if at all Moi must succumb to pressure to save the Nation from anarchy and bleak future then now is the time, and Rails Odinga is the man to do it.

STRATEGIC INITIATIVE
Raila must not allow politics of sycophancy even among his inner circle of advisors. They must remain objective all the time as they help look for possible practical options that can deliver the Presidency to Hon Raila Odinga today and not tomorrow.

The people in Luo land have been patient given the state of improvishment and devastation they have suffered by virtue of exclusion from government. They will not want to be out of the next government by all means . The national question must therefore remain subordinate to cultural and social particularities in the struggle for power. The Luo people, by seeking to provide one of their son to lead this Nation they are also invoking a moral imperative. They are not seeking to loot state resources as the previous and contemporary regimes, they are seeking to restore their confidence in the State as a national instrument in the delivery of public goods. They are seeking to affirm their democratic right to offer a choice for leadership in this great Nation.

Hon Raila’s gesture to KANU was massively supported (though reluctantly) by the Luo because they saw in it the political opportunity to achieve the Presidency but also the dangers of jungle politics that dominate KANU . The protracted struggles of Raila including detention without trial by the same regime are a symbol of the moral power and political humility . This is understood and prevails in consciousness of many people in Luo land, yet again it does not absolve Raila from political mistakes that would make the whole community disillusioned.

Hence even while addressing the national question of Moi’s transition pseudo-named “succession”, the feelings and aspirations of the Luo must be take into account. The recent disapproval of Moi utterances in Kisumu show is a clear indication of political spirit in Luo Nyanza. Therefore, at each stage of critical political shifts, the political temperature in Luo land must be appropriated. The people must be consulted even when radical shifts are being made . This is not just a question of seeking raw power but rather appropriating the authority of the people in matters that touch on their political destiny. Hence what instruments do we have in place to gauge the current political temperature in Luo land ? Will our people be patient if we succumbed to Moi’s grand design? The answer is obvious.

HARD OPTIONS
Taking into account all options in the unfolding quest for the Presidency it is necessary to be equipped with a critical understanding of the trends especially Moi’s choice of his “Successor”. Hence all channels of dialogue with opposition within and outside KANU must now be opened and sustained. Public statements in solidarity with Hon. Raila from various sites and groups outside Luoland must be sustained. A network of National associations , trade unions and other civil society groups need to be incorporated in the grand plan to win public opinion across the board.

The pressure of public opinion must be maintained to send a strong signal to Moi that he may not be entirely in control of the destiny of this Nation without the consent of the people. We must sustain a structured internal arrangement for a concerted and sustained project which would ensure that Raila Odinga becomes the next president of Kenya. Hence we need to aggressively build coalitions even with the unlikely political actors within and outside KANU. Two critical coalitions are those of Nyachae and Orengo.

We must build alliances with Moi’s adversaries, the people he hates most and who know him. This must be done covertly.

Initiate intense lobbying with other actors within KANU to strengthen the position and overall supremacy of the party constitution in the question of nomination by secret ballot.

Hon Raila Odinga’s bid for the Presidency must be launched beyond the rhetoric of press statements. He needs an up to date website with the links to major international networks sympathetic to his cause.
Such a website will be hosted outside the country including a facility for fundraising for the campaign overseas.

A clear detailed program of the remedies Hon Raila intends to put in place to revive the ailing economy in the first 100 days when he takes over government.

Create immediately the position of a press secretary who will monitor media coverage and influence public opinion on his behalf.

Target the international community to deconstruct the so called leftist leanings in Raila's past.

Establish an organized intelligence gathering unit that will brief Hon
Raila on weekly basis and whenever necessary.

People in Business, especially in Nairobi must be mobilised to sustain a concerted fundraising initiative every Friday at a particular venue.
Parallel to the Uhuru initiative, Hon. Raila, as Secretary General of the Party ought to use his position to vet any attempts to manipulate the nomination process.

Not for Citation – only for the private consideration by Hon. Raila Odinga.

5th August 5, 2002


Wife cuts off husband's penis flashes it down the toilet.

The surprising real reason why more and more Kenyans are having steamy extra-marital affairs

Woman Murders Her Best Friend To Steal Her Husband As Science Proves That It Is Deadly For Women To Have Casual Sex

How Kenyans can now easily start a lucrative Internet business from any remote part of Kenya for only Kshs 100/-