Recently, honorable Opiyo Wandayi, who is the minority leader at the National Assembly released a statement that had Azimio supporters over the moon. But many stopped themselves quickly because it all sounded too good to be true. Indeed I received some emails asking me; "Chris, what does all this mean?"
Well, in case you're still in the dark and have no idea what I am talking about... All Hon Wandayi did was to release a list of the Azimio side of a panel to do an audit on the 2022 presidential elections.
Most Kenyans know that this is not a small matter because to do an audit, one would need to access the servers with the presidential election results 2022 and all of them at that!
Now, before we go into the far reaching implications of what most Kenyans hope is about to happen, let us start this story at the beginning.
You will remember that going into the national dialogue talks that halted streets protests (Maandamano) Azimio had three irreducible minimums.
Number one; That the Ruto government should make deliberate efforts to bring down the cost of living (instead of doing the opposite by hiking taxes)
Number two; Opening the servers with the real presidential results.
Number three: That Ruto should immediately stop re-constituting a new IEBC.
And of course we all know that Azimio lost one out of those three irreducible minimum demands. And that is the cost of living where there was no agreement between Azimio and Kenya Kwanza at the Bomas talks.
Actually Azimio had to make a very big decision because going into the talks, they had said if there was no agreement on the cost of living then there was nothing else they were going to discuss with Kenya Kwanza and the talks would therefore collapse.
So, why did Raila and Azimio change their mind and let cost of living slide?
There was a very good reason which you will never hear spoken out at any press conference or even a politician's speech. And really it is just simple logic.
Let me simplify it with a very common Swahili saying that goes thus; If a child cries for a sharp razor, just give it to them. If your child is crying because they want the razor to play with and you know the consequences (they will hurt themselves), you can still decide to let them have it so that they learn a lesson the hard way and then you will never have that trouble with them again).
You see the cost of living is a very sensitive political hot potato that has brought down too many governments and even empires since the beginning of time. There is no debate amongst Kenyans that it has finished Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza brigade politically. Nobody on that side of the divide has a political future, even if they do not know it yet.
And so Azimio decided to quit struggling against stubborn Ruto on cost of living and decided to let him "cook" in his own fat. And of course for some very bizarre reason Ruto and his chaps still don't see this. In their minds they can do what they want (taking away money from people's pockets) and then when the elections come around they will find a strategy to convince Kenyans to vote them back in or they'll simply rig themselves back in. I guess the thinking is that since Daniel arap Moi with all the Western Powers against his administration, towards the end of his reign) still managed to remain in power, then that is proof it can be done and therefore since Ruto and his men view themselves as being super smart, they are sure that they too can do it. That seems to be the thinking around this administration.
For Azimio it was felt that it was wise to at least win something. Like opening the servers and the IEBC manenos. That was obviously better than nothing. And in any case the cost of living component they had lost would inevitably be the downfall of their political opponents, which would be doing Azimio a favour.
To me it makes perfect sense and in their place I would have made the very same decision.
Now let us focus on this panel to go through the 2022 presidential elections results with a fine tooth comb, so to speak.
This really has to start with opening the servers -- all of them. BUT let us just face reality. There is no way Ruto would have agreed to this (it is all signed and sealed in the NADCO report which is being tabled in Parliament to be quickly passed shortly) unless UDA had a plan in place. A plan to guarantee that the result of this audit will not remove Ruto from Power. Because most Kenyans know what is in those servers.
And there are many ways of doing this in Parliament because after all Ruto has the numbers in the National Assembly.
For example, they could introduce a small clause saying that all the findings of this forensic audit can only be implemented after 2027.
Actually, it is sad but true that there are many options here to frustrate Azimio supporters and justice. One which has been used successfully before is to pile up all the blame on IEBC. This is the body that has the legal mandate to carry out elections and when things go wrong it is actually impossible legally to shift the blame anywhere else, even if you have the evidence. And so this would be a neat and very viable option for Ruto.
And indeed history very clearly tells us that ALL Wafula Chebukati predecessors (without exception) have ended up being hanged out to dry. From Samuel Kivuitu to Issak Hassan.
There is something else. If the Wako forensic audit proves that the presidential election results were a total mess, that does not automatically hand over victory to Raila Odinga.
In 2007 when Kibaki rigged himself back for a second term, something very clever was done that I believe had foreign assistance partly because it was just too smart (legally). I'm not saying that Kenyans are not that smart but I recently saw something very similar in a country very far away from Kenya that gave me reason to suspect that maybe the experts used in 2007 were the same experts used recently in that other foreign country.
What exactly did they do in 2007 in the presidential election in Kenya? After stealing Raila votes massively countrywide, these people who rigged Kibaki back in, went to Raila strongholds and also fiddled with the votes there, giving Raila extra votes here and there.
That changed everything because from a legal position the evidence showed that, Kibaki stole votes but Raila also stole some votes. And thus the conclusion was that there was no way the real winner could be known because both candidates stole votes.
Clearly the appointment of this panel to forensically audit the 2022 presidential elections is not an open and shut case. There are just too many possible outcomes and scenarios and most of them will never see justice done.
But all is not lost for those Kenyans who would like justice to be done. Other things could happen.
For instance the revelations from the server of the real results of the presidential elections could have such a huge psychological impact on Kenyans that it could trigger unrest and a demand for justice that will be impossible for authorities to resist.
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