Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Why The Trump, Clinton Polls Were So Wrong

How to get on Google Search From Kenya

Kenyans will remember a pornographic magazine called Seen that littered our streets for many years and made the publisher, whom I know, a fortune. It had a huge circulation but most of the folks who purchased the magazine were "invisible."

One ploy used to purchase the sordid rag was to ask a street vendor for a copy of the Daily Nation and then instruct him "weka hio yengine ndani" (put the other publication inside). All newspaper vendors would understand immediately  and slip the magazine inside the pages of the Daily Nation and the respectable, usually aging gentleman would walk away innocently. What everybody saw was a nice old man carrying the days' newspaper under his arm.

My immediate guess as to why the US presidential elections pollsters were so, so, so, wrong was that the vast majority of US voters were of the same mindset  as readers of SEEN magazine. And so I went straight to Google to ask the American experts if I was right.

The answer popped up immediately;

The Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California tracking poll consistently pegged Trump as the leader throughout the final months of the campaign — and to much derision from political pundits.

Arie Kapteyn, director of the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, which jointly runs the poll, said some voters were apparently sheepish about admitting to a human pollster that they were backing Trump. But the L.A. Times/USC poll was based on an internet survey of a recruited group of voters.

Read the full how pollsters got Trump, Clinton election wrong article.

Well, if you did not know why porn sells so much better on the Internet than anywhere else, now you know... for sure.

The idea of Trump being president of the United States of America was a joke. Apparently so funny that the man was derided all the way into power and is now set to be the most powerful man on the planet. Yep, stop laughing because hundreds of millions of lives including yours and mine will be affected every time he coughs. Some joke I tell you.

The truth is that Trump has never looked presidential. Even now I am having great difficulties imagining the guy being called Mr President. Or the so-called-joker walking out of Airforce One to the salute of Marines. Don't even talk about a sit down with the joint chiefs.

Hardly surprising then that most of the folks who voted for him were too ashamed to admit the terribly shameful thing that they were about to do. However they had absolutely no problem doing it in secret at the ballot box. So whose laughing now after months of great fun on social media and elsewhere at Trumps' expense? I bet you some Kenyan somewhere is asking for a recount or the American IEBC to be disbanded immediately. Gosh!!!

They have always said in showbiz that no publicity is bad publicity. I never imagined in all my years of analyzing politics that this would also be true in politics. And I can tell you for free now that there are many parts of Kenya where our fellow countrymen had absolutely no idea who Donald Trump's challenger for the presidency was. Donald Trump anasimama na yule mwanamke sijui bibi ya nani (Donald Trump is running against that woman, somebody's wife, I have no idea what her name is.) I kid you not folks.

Wow!! and wow again!! 

It is no longer a joke that is why you must read;
What A Donald Trump Presidency Means For Kenyans

What A Donald Trump Presidency Means For Kenyans

How to get on Google Search From Kenya

A Donald Trump win in the just concluded US elections is not good news for most Kenyans.

A vast majority here view the man as an opinionated racist. Based on his campaign and utterenaces there is little to discount this widely held view which has been repeatedly expressed on social media locally.

It is instructive that Trump won mainly because he promised stricter control on immigration into the US and more jobs and prosperity for Americans. The jobs will mainly come from massive investment in infrastructural projects in that country. The most memorable of these is the wall he threateningly promised to build across the porous Mexican border details of which are still rather sketchy.

The bottomline is that any Kenyan planning to immigrate to the US who is a Muslim will have a pretty hard time if the president elect makes good his repeated campaign promise. Even non-Muslim Kenyans will encounter problems because Trump promised to keep immigrants from any country that has had a history of terror activity or incubation of the same at bay.

It will however be interesting to see how the infrasructural projects will pun out because there are certain hard labour activities that are the preserve of immigrants. The kind of jobs that Americans don't really like.

Relations with the Kenyan government should not see any major changes because the president-elect is as American as they come and the policy in Washington has always been to keep important strategic partners happy. Kenya as a country can hardly be ignored or put in the back burner when it comes to Uncle Sam's dealings in the region. Indeed it is virtually impossible to get anything done in the region without the partcipation of our country. Little wonder that President Uhuru issued a statement moments after Trumps' victory.



Mercifully the powers of the US presidency are limited and it is unlikely that many of the more controversial Trump campaign pledges that may affect Kenyans at home and abroad will ever see the light of day. If they do not go belly up in Congress, the courts will be kept busy interpreting the liberal American constitution to them.

It should also be said that even Trump's ability to captain some of the overly ambitious economic dreams he sold to the electorate is in doubt. The man has had a long history of failed and bankrupt businesses before he finally rose to fame mainly riding on a success whose foundation was his father's real estate business. 


My prediction is that there will be an initial surge in the American economy which will be difficult to sustain as the new president settles into the realities of the job and by the time his four year term ends the tide will have turned significantly enough for the yankees to be itching for a Hilary Clinton presidency.




What President Uhuru had to say about the Trump victory

Kenyans react to Donald Trumps' win