Election Results: Will there be trouble in Tanzania after Sunday?

As opinion polls (including the Kumekucha one) show that opposition candidate will win presidency from Kikwete


On Sunday Kenya’s next door neighbours, Tanzania go to the polls. The reality on the ground is that the Tanzanians have been watching with great interest and then envy as Kenya has gone through a very eventful two years or so. Tanzanians are now asking why ordinary folks in their country cannot be like Kenyans who to them appear to be very much aware of their rights and willing to fight for them.

I was shocked beyond words recently when I overheard ordinary Tanzanians in a Dar-es-salaam surburb discussing Sunday’s polls and saying that it would be a good idea to stock up in food and stay indoors, expecting the worst. The reason for my surprise is that despite the reports of election violence that always emerge from Zanzibar during almost every general election, election violence is hardly the style of Tanzanians, more so on the mainland.

Is this man capable of doing a Kibaki this Sunday?

To most Kenyans (like the guys who never miss an opportunity to spew tribal hatred in this blog) it would be mighty difficult to understand Tanzanian politics. Tribalism hardly exists in this country that is almost the size of both Kenya and Uganda put together and boasts of over 140 tribes (to Kenya’s 40 something). Neither is there a history of certain tribes reigning supreme over others. The one man who must take the most credit for this unity that is rare to find in any African country is the founding father the late Mwalimu Julius Kabarage Nyerere. While Kenya’s Tom Mboya and Jomo Kenyatta prided themselves in national symbols based on strong animals like the lion, Nyerere quietly chose the unassuming Giraffe. And there is plenty of proof in the man’s life that he was able to see extremely far into the horizon so much so that he still holds great sway even from the grave. Nyerere unified the country by aggressively adopting the Swahili language into the fabric and way of life of Tanzanians. Whilst it is true that Tanzanians are now busy going to extreme lengths to undo this by ensuring that their children grow up learning English from an early age and ignoring Kiswahili altogether, they have Nyerere to thank for the fact that despite the unprecedented high tensions that are being witnessed in the country’s politics, what happened in Kenya in early 2008 can never happen in Tanzania. Whatever Kikwete or CCM decide to do on Sunday.

Incidentally what I admire most about Nyerere is that fact that while Jomo Kenyatta was busy grabbing every available fertile piece of land he could lay his hands on and enriching himself, Nyerere was focused on serving his people. So much so that by the time his retirement came round, his people were so embarrassed about his rural shack that they opted to hurriedly build him a house. Even today the Nyerere family are ordinary folks feeling the current strain of the economy in the country. Wow!! Can you imagine Uhuru Kenyatta broke? Or Mama Ngina Kenyatta applying for a bank loan to pay school fees for some of her grand children? Or Kenyans being ashamed of any politician’s rural home so much so that they opt to build them a house?

Nyerere is long dead but he still looms large in many aspects of Tanzanian life and to understand the country’s politics one cannot avoid studying the man in great detail. For instance crime levels are still spectacularly low in Tanzania, more so violent crime. One of the reasons is the system of Majumba kumi (ten households) established by Nyerere. Covering the vast country of 40 million people it ensures that hardly anything happens without the knowledge of authorities. There is a leader appointed over every ten households who reports to authorities any developments in their area of jurisdiction including the arrival of strangers and would-be criminals. This makes it extremely difficult to plan for any serious violent crime without attracting attention. Buying arms and amassing arrows like happened in the Rift Valley prior to the ill-fated 2007 elections would be impossible.

But now despite this kind of past, the general elections on Sunday looms large for the Giraffe nation. The ruling CCM (Chama cha mapinduzi) is faced with the fight of its’ life. More so its’ presidential candidate Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete. Traditionally the main opposition party in Tanzania has been CUF, a party that has huge following in Zanzibar and amongst Muslims in Tanzania. However seemingly out of nowhere a man called Dr Willibrod Slaa a charismatic orator who bases answers to almost all questions asked on the ordinary Tanzanian reeling under considerable financial strain currently. Political analysts predict a close race. I have been on a tour of Tanzania recently and I can authoritatively report that Chadema’s Slaa has enough legs to win the presidential race by a respectable margin. As to who will be announced winner (which is what matters here) all I can say is that this is Africa.

But despite whatever credentials Slaa my have, the truth is that he is just a man who found himself at the right place at the right time. Tanzanians are aching for the change that they have seen coming to their next door neighbours Kenya and it is only natural that not many see that change coming from the ruling party CCM’s presidential candidate Jakaya Kikwete. More so after the devastating effect on their daily lives that his rule has had. Not to mention the broken promises to a much more aware and restless electorate.

I am taking steps to caution all my Kenyan friends residing in Tanzania to be careful and alert on Sunday because anything can happen. Mercifully whatever it is that may happen can never come close to the bloodbath we saw in Kenya in 2008.


New opinion poll shows that opposition candidate will win Tanzanian presidency

Main opposition party claims that rigging is being planned through ghost voters

Where some of Kiwkete’s popularity problems started
Kikwete love triangle that earned sexy Congolese musician life sentence (read the second comment on the page that opens from the link)

Views of the Tanzanian business community on the impact of the looming general elections

How the first few months of Kikwete caused jitters amongst foreigners living in Tanzania

Election results in Tanzania since independence

Three Down, Now KACC Steps on Live Wire

UPDATE: Mayor Majiwa finally throws in the towel and steps aside. But the real test now begins when KACC steps on the live wire that is Anglo Leasing and Goldenberg. PLO, say your last prayers and never say you were never warned. You will know the true owners of Kenya now that you have dared fly so close to the sun oblivious of the fact that your wings are waxed. OLE WAKO.

This is turning out to be an historic week for the reborn nation under the new constitution. The week began with Ruto's date with court to answer charges of fraudulent land deals. This was promptly followed by Nairobi Mayor Majiwa having breakfast at KACC offices before being charged in court for his involvement in the cemetery scam. And even before the rowdy councillors would shout PNU/ODM, today the net widened for bigger catch, PS Mwangi and his minister who both stepped aside after seeing the writing on the wall in capital letters.

As if they are taking a cue from last week's post on this blog, Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetangula and his permanent secretary Thuita Mwangi have today voluntarily stepped aside to pave way for investigations into the Tokyo scum. In deciding not to wait for where the axe was most likely going to fall next on the chopping block the two birds of a feather have astutely chosen to dodge rather than bite the bullet and live to fight another day

Make no mistake about it, it was only a matter of time before President Kibaki would have suspended Hon Wetangula from the cabinet; after all the almost retired 3rd president of the republic is on a roll, and whether condemned or not for his actions he is in the process of leaving behind his legacy which he wants to be remembered by. Minister Wetangula and his lackey have made the decision easier for the President by opting to gracefully exit stage left and thus help maintain proof that the political illusion of the new promulgated constitution at work.

Simply stated, its time for the spirit of our new laws to be put to work even before the ink dries on the letters that spelt them out. By Wetangula not waiting to be suspended he is sending albeit reluctantly the message that Kenyans of all ages who have lived through 3 administrations contemptuous of the law have yearned to hear all their lives: no one is above the law and the rules must be obeyed by both great and small. And let us give credit where it is due the Kenya Anti Corruption Commission are finally matching their bark with their bite in being seen to and doing justice in the fight against corruption with measured punches that are only just beginning to aim past their institutional weight. They still have a long way to go but they most deservedly can receive a pat on the back Kumekucha style

Meanwhile the baton is slowly but surely being passed onto you and I, the true owners of the county. Kenyans are slowly crawling out of self imposed IDP exile in their own country to discover their voice is beginning to be heard and they can have a say in how they want the affairs of their country to be run. Whereas its too early to shout "free at last" the signs of what the future portends for us are hopeful if we keep up the momentum. But brace yourselves because the ICC has not made its move yet in what will be the ultimate test of the nation's melded fabric under a new constitution

We must not delude ourselves to rush in popping the champaigne just yet. The cancer of TRIBALISM is not in any hurry to depart from our shores. But all the same the vice couldn't save Wetangula's neck even when surrounded by Wekesa, Shitanda and Eselli at his darkest political hour. Next head please!!