What Do You Tell A Friend When There's A Brick Wall Ahead

That friend is Raila Odinga.

I've agonized about the increasingly fragile situation this masterful politician from my backyard finds himself in. Because of his stand on various issues, he faces what is beginning to look like a quagmire, a situation he will be unable to extricate himself from when the time to run for president rolls around in 2012.

The range of issues that the Prime Minister needs to worry about are growing. Obviously he is at the point where he has just about successfully alienated the Kalenjin. We all know that the Mau situation needs to be carefully handled, and that a solution must immediately be found that takes into account the interests of the folks there at the same time as the interests of the wider Kenyan, and indeed East African community, is taken care of. But this is a landmine. Should Raila have played politics on this issue and placed the future of a region in jeopardy?

What do you tell a friend?

Then there is the growing perception that a certain group of people is setting up the PM for failure. According to this theory, it is believed that this group has curved out only the most politically difficult issues for Raila to deal with and not Kibaki. For instance, they say, why has Kibaki not been as forceful in handling the Mau issue as Raila has been? Why hasn't he been seen to be vocal about a new constitution? And why has he appeared so disinterested in the Migingo issue when he knows that Migingo is an issue that deeply troubles the folks from his own Prime Minister's backyard? And just wait. Does it look strange that when the Hague now looks inevitable the conniving group has brought in Raila to plead with Kenyans for a local tribunal? Why can't Kibaki crisscross the nation campaigning for that dead-horse idea, the theorists ask?

What do you tell a friend?

If a friend is a man or a woman you love and trust, you will always tell them the truth. I've read accounts of well-meaning men and women who have advised Raila to go slow on Mau, to let the perpetrators of ethnic killings roast at the Hague, to be more defiant in the face of the charged assignments slapped on his desk by the group hell bent on making him catch the flak when things go wrong. My fear is that such people are not Raila's friends.

Friends tell the truth.

The truth is that Raila, as a leader, must stand firm for what is right. When those who understand the environmental issues at play at Mau tell us that we face a disaster if the activities currently ongoing there are not addressed, why would Raila choose political expediency and play to the ignorant lot that don't seem to care what will happen in just five to ten years? And since Raila signed on to work with Kibaki as a partner, why would he now turn around and cause upheaval in the coalition a good three years before the next presidential campaign season? Isn't it right for the PM to keep his end of the bargain till the time comes to say, "Let's present a new vision to the Kenyan people?"

What do you tell a friend?

Tell the friend to lead with conviction and wisdom. In all that you do, Hon. Prime Minister, ensure that you put the interests of this nation first and all will be just fine. And even if I should disagree with you about the local tribunal, I give you the fact that you have...at this point in time...weighed the options and decided that the local tribunal route is the best for Kenya. I hope soon you'll sense its retrogressive nature and join those of us who are pushing for the Hague.

I hope you also tell your friend you are praying for them!

Road to 2012 and Politics of 20 Provinces

ICC's Moreno Ocampo and his sidekick Kofi Annan can generate all the heat they want but Kenya must continue with CONSTITUTIONAL governance. We have no leadership vacuum and to suggest otherwise is treasonable.

Kibaki has embarked on his constitutional duty to REDRAW Kenya’s map and redefine our politics forever. And the nosy airheads must keep off such weighty matters of governance. Kibaki’s acts are unparalleled. You cannot effectively administer close to 40m people from 8 dispersed centres.

Kibaki is shaping Kenya for the 21st Century. Forget about Michuki taking Moi to court for creating more districts. That was the right thing at the wrong time by the wrong person. In less than 3 years, we now have 254 districts, far more than 210 constituencies. And why not have more DCs than MPs if you want to police people?

The Ministry of internal security is integral to the success of any political schemes. Just add that to the now fully-fledged paramilitary force Administration Police complete with helicopters, marine boats and high tech firepower and you get what you want by FIAT. 2012 is well taken care of in advance. No more 2007, dare you?

Even grade three tots will tell you something about bringing services closer to the people. Government policy can only be effectively delivered by the right personnel who enjoy undivided loyalty from their boss. The new faces of governors tells it all.

Kibaki’s curving out of 20 near ethnically and politically homogeneous provinces is an acto of political genius. He may be OLD, but HE the President if sharp and living ahead of his time. He has once again proved that our tattered constitution can be mutilated some more to good effect.

You only need to look closely at the sub provinces curved out of Rift Valley, Western and Nyanza to see the President’s master stroke. All the other divisions were only meant to create façade of justification. The Ligale-led boundary commission can have their ritual and purchase the new cars but Kenya is miles ahead with Kibaki in the driver’s seat.

Majimbo by fiat
The bungled 2007 elections changed Kenya forever. What is more, Kibaki took note and has promptly acted on that very voting pattern. Political homogeneity can only mean peace. The more districts than constituencies is sign of things to come.

By creating the unofficial 20 provinces, Kibaki has killed all the political birds in the forest with a single stone. What a marvelous way to launch a lasting legacy? New constitution kitu gani? Districts don't count for presidency, provinces do. The so-called Bomas draft can be CLEVERLY implemented differently to serve specif purpose, MTA DO?

All right thinking and patriotic Kenyans must rally behind Kibaki to unite Kenya. He has deftly obliterated the primitive politics of tribal warlords. A nationalist won’t find it difficult winning 5 provinces as stipulated by the law to become the president.

The new 20 provinces spell anew dawn for Kenyan politics. I pity those who are worried of a fractious Kenya. You haven’t seen the last thread of an infinitely divided country, thanks to Kibaki. NA BADO.