It is now clear that it is either Raila Odinga or Kalonzo Musyoka (depending on where your radical support falls) who will cause the inevitable disintegration of ODM at worse or the emergence of two splinter ODM-Kenya factions.
Initially it was Kalonzo who was accused of creating antagonism in the party by what was termed as 'shifting goal posts all the time' over the procedure of presidential nominations and was attacked by even close friends like Joseph Nyagah, another presidential aspirant in ODM-Kenya, who asked him to leave the party rather than continue with his constant "nagging".
However, that passed fast as the abortive United Kingdom bonding trip for ODM luminaries badly back-fired on Raila's face as almost everybody boycotted the trip and have now isolated Raila whose remaining allies seem to be only the Luo MP's in ODM. Things are so bad that some analysts are now starting to look at an ODM party minus Raila Odinga or two factions with Raila in one and Kalonzo in the other.
And it seems that word within inner Narc-Kenya circles is that the tougher candidate is bound to be Kalonzo who is expected to end up with more tribal chiefs on his side. Could this be the reason why there are whispers that Chairy Ngilu will be Kibaki's running mate this time round and that President Kibaki will opt to stand with the original Narc?
It seems that all of a sudden, the Langata MP can no longer be trusted by his ODM colleagues and word is out that there is an elaborate plot to isolate him completely and force him out of ODM-Kenya or alternatively leave him with an empty shell as all the other tribal chiefs unite under a different brand new umbrella all the time ensuring that his departure causes minimal weakening as the rest of the luminaries stick together to support one candidate, supposedly Kalonzo. Apparently this is exactly what is being put on the table as negotiation continue through emissaries as temperatures are fairly high at the moment.
Majority of ODM leaders are not idiots or politically naïve and are aware that Raila can never beat Kibaki alone and more so due to the issue of ethnicity in politics where Raila is unlikely to garner significant votes from any other community besides his Luo brothers, if he opts to go it alone like he did in 1997. In fact no presidential candidate currently can win the presidency going it alone.
Kalonzo seems the best bet as being a Kamba, he can marshal support from the rest of the communities including Kibaki's Kikuyu's and those from mount Kenya region which has parts in Eastern province which should be Musyoka's stronghold. Musjoka's radical supporters insist that their man is strong enough. This blogger has his doubts and I have nothing personal against the son of Musyoka (which means in Kamba, the one who returns).
My heart goes out to Raila Amollo Odinga who has suffered so much for the sake of this country and who has virtually been a one-man opposition party for so many years. In all fairness he deserves a stab at the presidency much more than any other presidential candidate currently, but alas, the rough and tumble of Kenyan politics, it seems is keen to deny the son of Jaramogi once again.
Real Gikuyu man answers lonely frustrated beauty who complained to Kumekucha about her lovers of the past.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
How Democracy And The Will Of The People Can Thrive In All These Chaos
The truth is that both major political parties in the country are far from being stable and even as they insist on doing the impossible of sticking together in their coalitions until Election Day, it is clear that they are fighting a losing battle.
And maybe the solution is to stop trying so hard to mix oil with water and to let nature take it's course. The most likely scenario is that we will end up with more than twenty presidential candidates with at least 10 strong tribal chiefs which will deny the incumbent the 25 per cent he needs in 5 provinces to be declared winner. The result is that there will be a run off, and the coalitions can then be reinstated then, after the people of Kenya have been given a chance to speak. Incidentally forming coalitions now is another way of denying the voter a voice. Steadmann does not vote, as Raila reminded the press two days ago. And I add, neither do rude abusive comments on the Internet count. So let's see how popular our favorite candidates really are.
It is interesting the way everybody has assumed that Kibaki will easily get the required 25% in enough provinces to be declared winner. This assumption ignores the fact that a president's votes under the current system is strongly influenced by winning MPs countrywide. The last time I checked, there is a serious rebellion within Narc-Kenya pitting current MPs who are mostly very unpopular with the electorate against those who have been doing their groundwork over the last 3 years or so. This has caused the postponement of the polls recently and it is unlikely that those polls will ever be held. So the likely thing that will happen here is that the Narc-Kenya high command will stick with the incumbent MPs and the disgruntled popular candidates on the ground may just opt for another presidential candidate as they defect to other parties (they will have a huge choice this time round as the number of briefcase parties being churned out at the AGs chambers daily is unprecedented in the history of Africa). Even if the Narc-Kenya high command embraces the popular candidates on the ground, the incumbents will defect and they are bound to do exactly the same thing.
That's why I laughed a little too loudly when an amateur analyst told me two days ago that the problems within ODM are much more serious than those within Narc-Kenya as far as the presidential race is concerned.
Real Gikuyu man answers lonely frustrated beauty who complained to Kumekucha about her lovers of the past.
And maybe the solution is to stop trying so hard to mix oil with water and to let nature take it's course. The most likely scenario is that we will end up with more than twenty presidential candidates with at least 10 strong tribal chiefs which will deny the incumbent the 25 per cent he needs in 5 provinces to be declared winner. The result is that there will be a run off, and the coalitions can then be reinstated then, after the people of Kenya have been given a chance to speak. Incidentally forming coalitions now is another way of denying the voter a voice. Steadmann does not vote, as Raila reminded the press two days ago. And I add, neither do rude abusive comments on the Internet count. So let's see how popular our favorite candidates really are.
It is interesting the way everybody has assumed that Kibaki will easily get the required 25% in enough provinces to be declared winner. This assumption ignores the fact that a president's votes under the current system is strongly influenced by winning MPs countrywide. The last time I checked, there is a serious rebellion within Narc-Kenya pitting current MPs who are mostly very unpopular with the electorate against those who have been doing their groundwork over the last 3 years or so. This has caused the postponement of the polls recently and it is unlikely that those polls will ever be held. So the likely thing that will happen here is that the Narc-Kenya high command will stick with the incumbent MPs and the disgruntled popular candidates on the ground may just opt for another presidential candidate as they defect to other parties (they will have a huge choice this time round as the number of briefcase parties being churned out at the AGs chambers daily is unprecedented in the history of Africa). Even if the Narc-Kenya high command embraces the popular candidates on the ground, the incumbents will defect and they are bound to do exactly the same thing.
That's why I laughed a little too loudly when an amateur analyst told me two days ago that the problems within ODM are much more serious than those within Narc-Kenya as far as the presidential race is concerned.
Real Gikuyu man answers lonely frustrated beauty who complained to Kumekucha about her lovers of the past.
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