The British Ambassador’s Secret Meeting: What It Means for Raila Odinga and Kenya’s Political Future

One of you has raised a very timely and intriguing question that I believe many would like answered: What was discussed in the recent, lengthy meeting between British Ambassador to Kenya, Neil Wigan, and Raila Odinga? Should Raila’s supporters feel optimistic or concerned about this meeting?

This meeting, in my view, holds immense political significance for several reasons. The British High Commission frequently highlights the historical ties between Kenya and the UK, but many may not fully grasp what that means. The UK, as Kenya’s former colonial ruler, has deeply embedded roots in the country. The British intelligence agency, MI6, maintains extensive records on Kenya and closely monitors its affairs.

However, the most compelling aspect of this story isn’t the past—it’s what has been happening in recent years. Since around 2004–2005, Britain has faced significant challenges in Kenya, particularly regarding its economic interests. For decades, Kenya was a reliable market for British businesses, particularly through government contracts. But when Mwai Kibaki took over the presidency, these contracts dwindled. This strategic shift reduced British influence over Kenya, including in political matters.

While some viewed this as a loss, it was also an opportunity for Kenya to diversify its economic partnerships, including turning to China for more cost-effective deals. Although Kenya’s debt to China later became a serious burden, these issues did not arise under Kibaki’s leadership but rather under the administration that took power in 2013.

Now, let’s bring this discussion back to the present. The events that unfolded at Bomas of Kenya after the August 2022 elections remain shrouded in mystery. Key decisions were made, but the origins of these decisions are unclear. It is crucial to ask: Where did the orders come from? At that time, Uhuru Kenyatta was still the sitting president, yet we know the orders did not come from his administration. So, who was really in control?

This brings us back to Raila’s recent meeting with the British ambassador. What could they have been discussing behind closed doors? Given the historical role Britain has played in Kenya’s politics, could this be a negotiation about the future? Could it involve political realignments?

One notable detail is that Junet Mohamed, a key Raila ally, was among the few individuals present at the meeting. Junet has played a significant role in past high-stakes negotiations, including the handshake deal between Raila and Uhuru Kenyatta. His presence suggests that the meeting was not just a casual diplomatic engagement but rather a critical political discussion.

Furthermore, if we examine Britain’s past involvement in Kenyan politics, we see a pattern. After Bomas, the British quickly engaged with President William Ruto, leading to business agreements between Kenya and the UK. Could this latest meeting signal another significant shift?

Finally, based on my analysis, this meeting also hints at another development—Raila’s succession within ODM. The individual being groomed to take over as the party’s next leader appears to be Wycliffe Oparanya.

This meeting is a major political signal, and while we may not know the exact details yet, it’s clear that something significant is unfolding. We won’t have to wait long to see its impact.