Why the Finance Bill 2023 Will Struggle to Succeed in Kenya

 After extensive research and discussions with various experts, I have concluded that while the Finance Bill 2023 has been passed by Parliament, its implementation is set to face significant hurdles. Here's why I believe it’s doomed to fail in generating revenue for the Kenyan government.

Firstly, workers' unions across the country are gearing up for industrial action, including strikes that could bring key industries, including government operations, to a standstill. A few unions, particularly those representing civil servants, are determined to defend their members’ rights despite the possibility of bribes from corrupt leaders. Given the high public awareness and opposition to the Finance Bill, union leaders are under pressure to act in their members' best interests.

Secondly, there are several court cases challenging the Finance Bill 2023, with petitions citing constitutional violations. If these cases gain traction, the Bill could be declared unconstitutional, rendering it ineffective. On top of that, protests, mass action, and boycotts are gaining momentum, especially as Kenyans become increasingly impatient with the government's handling of economic issues.

Should the Finance Bill somehow survive the court challenges and union strikes, public unrest could still undermine its implementation. The political climate is charged, with widespread dissatisfaction and divisions within the country, leading to intense opposition against the government.

To further explain why the Bill is in trouble, a tax expert shared insights about past administrations. When Kibaki took power in 2003, tax collection skyrocketed due to the legitimacy of his government. However, tax compliance faltered in his second term after the 2007 post-election violence, highlighting that tax collection is deeply connected to public trust in the government.

In essence, Kenyans' willingness to pay taxes is closely tied to their belief in the legitimacy of their leaders. With the current administration viewed by many as having come to power through dubious means, tax compliance is likely to remain low.

As I reflect on the situation, I remember a lesson from a political lecturer who once told me that shortcuts in life often lead to dire consequences. The current administration's "shortcut" to power has had a ripple effect, causing long-term challenges for governance, including the implementation of policies like the Finance Bill.

A fascinating story from 2002 illustrates this perfectly. Chris Murungaru, a key minister in the Kibaki government, was once seen hawking medical supplies in Mombasa after being chased by auctioneers. But just a few months later, he was a multi-billionaire, highlighting how shortcuts in life can have significant consequences. This illustrates the unpredictable nature of Kenyan politics, where those who seemingly take shortcuts face eventual downfall.

The Finance Bill 2023 is encountering resistance on multiple fronts, including workers' unions, the courts, and the streets. If it survives these challenges, it will face a tough battle in terms of public acceptance, given the government's current lack of legitimacy.

To conclude, while the Finance Bill 2023 has been passed, its implementation is likely to face major obstacles, making its success unlikely.