Why Both Presidential Candidates Are Terrified Of Independence

 

The phrase "Houston, we have a problem" became famous after astronauts encountered a critical issue during the Apollo 13 mission. This is an apt analogy for the current crisis in Kenyan politics, which revolves around independent candidates. In an earlier recording, I predicted that independent candidates would play a significant role in the elections, and I was right—though I didn't anticipate just how impactful they would be. As things unfold, it’s clear that their influence is far greater than expected.

If you had any doubts about the power of independent candidates, look at how both of the major presidential candidates are reacting. Both have taken strong positions against independents. President Uhuru Kenyatta, for example, didn’t address the issue directly but had two spokespersons comment on his behalf. They acknowledged that the Constitution allows independent candidates, but emphasized that these candidates should not set conditions for presidential hopefuls, indicating concern over the growing number of independents.

On the other hand, NASA leader Raila Odinga was much more direct, urging his supporters not to vote for independent candidates, with other key NASA figures echoing his sentiment. They argue that independents are causing confusion, but there are deeper issues at play. For a presidential candidate, the goal is to secure support and build a strong presence in both houses of Parliament and across county assemblies. This allows them to push policies through with majority support. Without this, a president will face significant opposition, making it hard to achieve anything.

Independents complicate this dynamic because they are not bound to any party. Imagine a scenario where a president-elect relies on independent candidates to form a majority in Parliament, only to see these independents lured away by the opposition. This is a real threat in Kenyan politics, where the electorate's wishes are often disregarded once a candidate is elected. Independents who initially support the president may be enticed with offers from the opposition, causing a shift in the balance of power. This could leave the president unable to implement their agenda.

What makes this situation even more concerning is that many of these independent candidates are not political novices—they are seasoned politicians with strong constituencies. This makes it even harder for presidential candidates to predict their loyalty. This issue is even more pronounced for Jubilee, where the stakes are even higher.