The Smoke Screen Strategy: What Is Raila Odinga Really Up To?

 

 it appeared that Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka was introduced by Raila Odinga as the heir apparent for the 2027 presidential elections. However, in my view—though I may not be right—this is a well-crafted smoke screen, a diversion tactic in politics meant to divert the attention of political opponents from what is truly happening behind the scenes.

This tactic is often used to keep your opponents busy while you secretly work on more pressing matters. In this case, the information about Kalonzo being endorsed for 2027 was leaked by Raila’s insiders, but this is not typical of Raila Odinga’s style. He never shares such critical information ahead of time unless it serves a strategic purpose.

What actually happened in Bondo was that Raila hinted at Kalonzo possibly running in 2027, but he did not officially endorse him. Yes, many believe that Kalonzo is likely to inherit Raila politically in the future, but the timing is key. Right now, there is another game unfolding.

Consider Raila’s recent actions—his patience and relaxed demeanor regarding the bipartisan talks, even as things aren't progressing as expected. This behavior raises suspicions that something larger is brewing in the background.

The political situation in Kenya is far from stable, and I believe Raila is positioning himself to capitalize on the self-destructing Kenya Kwanza administration. Even without direct action from Raila, it’s clear that the current government is facing significant challenges. The recent fuel price hikes are one example of the public’s growing frustration, and rumors are circulating that some officials within the Kenya Kwanza government are profiting from these high prices.

This backdrop sets the stage for Raila and his team to ride the wave of discontent while positioning themselves for future opportunities. By playing into the narrative that Kalonzo could be the next leader, Raila and his allies are subtly aligning with a narrative pushed by the Kenya Kwanza administration itself. This is highly suspicious and indicates that Raila’s true game plan may involve more than just a presidential race.

There’s also the question of the election results, with many Kenyans still waiting for transparency regarding the August 2022 elections. If the servers are opened, revealing the true results, or even if they’re tampered with, the fallout could be significant. These moves, alongside the gathering of signatures to express no confidence in the government, signal that Raila’s intentions go beyond what is currently visible.

Ultimately, Raila’s apparent retreat may be temporary, and strategic. He seems to be waiting for a larger shift in Kenyan politics, all while maintaining the appearance of patience and diplomacy.