The Rise and Fall of Perceived Reformers: A Tale of Power, Deception, and Dictatorship

 A burning question dominates global political discourse: Will Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) survive the fallout from the Jamal Khashoggi murder? What will be the political implications for Saudi Arabia?

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—commonly known as MBS—has long been the focal point of Saudi politics. To understand the potential outcomes of this crisis, one would need an expert on global and Saudi Arabian politics. Enter John Brennan, former CIA Director, whose 25 years at the intelligence agency, including his tenure as its head from 2013 to 2017, lend significant weight to his analysis.

In a recent TV interview, Brennan provided a startling prediction: Saudi Arabia will likely be forced to remove MBS from power. According to him, the evidence directly implicating MBS in the gruesome assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi is overwhelming. Brennan believes that, despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to shield MBS politically, U.S. Congress and the American public will not let him escape accountability.

The Downfall of MBS

Brennan’s assessment suggests that MBS’s political career is effectively over. The murder of Jamal Khashoggi—a U.S. resident and Washington Post journalist—was too brutal and blatant for the American public to ignore. The outrage transcends political affiliations, making it nearly impossible for anyone, including Trump, to defend MBS.

This view aligns with earlier analyses that predicted MBS’s eventual downfall. Once hailed as a reformer for allowing women to drive, introducing concerts, and opening Saudi Arabia to modern entertainment, the Crown Prince’s carefully crafted image was shattered by the Istanbul assassination.

While these reforms garnered global praise, close observers always suspected a darker side. Beneath the surface, MBS was consolidating power through brutal means—neutralizing rivals within the royal family, silencing activists, and suppressing press freedom. Khashoggi’s exile was a direct result of this oppressive environment.

The Parallels with John Magufuli

MBS’s story mirrors that of Tanzanian President John Pombe Magufuli. Initially celebrated as a corruption-fighting reformer, Magufuli’s true nature as a dictator soon became apparent. Both leaders cultivated an image of progress while masking authoritarian tendencies.

Magufuli’s fall from grace was similarly marked by abuses of power, including the kidnapping of Tanzanian billionaire Mohammed Dewji. Allegations suggest the government targeted Dewji to coerce his family into surrendering valuable land for a hydroelectric project.

Both MBS and Magufuli have neutralized opposition, suppressed the press, and fostered climates of fear. Magufuli’s Tanzania is marked by journalists and activists disappearing without a trace, with some fleeing the country to write in exile. The same pattern of silencing dissent that forced Khashoggi into exile is evident in Magufuli’s Tanzania.

The Recklessness of Absolute Power

John Brennan describes MBS as "drunk with power," a condition that leads to recklessness and impunity. Magufuli exhibits similar traits, with his government accused of blatant corruption and human rights violations. Both leaders have prioritized personal power over national welfare, revealing the perils of unchecked authority.

In MBS’s case, his overreach culminated in the Khashoggi murder—a crime so brazen it became impossible to ignore. Similarly, Magufuli’s abuses, such as the alleged government involvement in Dewji’s kidnapping, exposed the regime’s willingness to use extreme measures to achieve its goals.

The Mirage of Reformers

Both MBS and Magufuli began their tenures with reforms that captured public imagination. However, their authoritarian practices eventually shattered the illusion. While MBS was lauded for allowing women to drive, Magufuli was celebrated for infrastructure projects and an anti-corruption stance. Yet, the truth revealed these leaders as dictators more interested in consolidating power than fostering genuine progress.

The eerie similarity between the two extends even to their motives for targeting individuals. Just as MBS is accused of shaking down his own citizens for wealth, Magufuli’s government has faced similar allegations in its dealings with the Dewji family.

A Global Lesson on Power

The stories of MBS and Magufuli underscore a universal truth: absolute power corrupts absolutely. Regardless of geography, dictators follow a predictable trajectory. They rise as reformers, manipulate perceptions, and eventually reveal their authoritarian cores.

The downfall of leaders like MBS and Magufuli serves as a cautionary tale for nations worldwide. While reforms may earn praise in the short term, the abuse of power ultimately leads to their undoing.