The Porcupine Strategy: How Taiwan Prepares for a Potential Invasion

 

 The MH-60R Seahawk helicopter, capable of flying at 267 km/h, is a powerful machine equipped with advanced radar and torpedoes designed to locate and destroy submarines. In 2015, Taiwan requested to purchase 12 of these helicopters from the United States to bolster its defenses against a potential invasion from China, which has a formidable submarine fleet. For decades, the U.S. has supplied Taiwan with weapons, making this a routine request. However, in 2022, the deal unexpectedly collapsed, with reports revealing that the U.S. had discouraged Taiwan from proceeding with the purchase. The reason? Concerns over Taiwan’s defensive strategy and its urgency in addressing vulnerabilities.

This marked a pivotal moment, as it might have been the first instance where the U.S. formally denied a Taiwanese arms request. Analysts agree that Taiwan must adopt a more effective strategy to defend itself against the growing threat from China.

---

The Origins of the China-Taiwan Conflict

The roots of the China-Taiwan conflict trace back nearly a century to 1927, during a civil war between Chinese Communists, led by Mao Zedong, and Nationalists under Chiang Kai-shek. After years of devastating warfare, the Communists emerged victorious in 1949, establishing the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. Meanwhile, the Nationalists retreated to Taiwan, forming their own government, the Republic of China (ROC). Both sides claimed to be the legitimate government of all of China, perpetuating a conflict that remains unresolved.

Initially, the U.S. supported Taiwan, signing a mutual defense pact in 1954 and stationing troops and weapons on the island. However, in 1979, the U.S. recognized the PRC as China’s legitimate government, withdrawing its troops from Taiwan and replacing its defense pact with the Taiwan Relations Act. This law promised to maintain trade and cultural ties and provide weapons for Taiwan’s self-defense but stopped short of guaranteeing military intervention in the event of an attack.

Taiwan’s Military Build-Up

Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Taiwan heavily invested in U.S.-made advanced weaponry, including fighter jets, tanks, ships, and missiles. These weapons were designed to counter China’s likely invasion strategy: sending troops across the Taiwan Strait in ships. At the time, Taiwan’s technological edge, combined with the possibility of U.S. intervention, gave it a strong chance of repelling an attack.

However, as Taiwan fortified its defenses, China embarked on a massive military modernization program. By the 2010s, China had significantly outpaced Taiwan in military spending, acquiring advanced tanks, aircraft, ships, submarines, and ballistic missiles. These developments neutralized Taiwan’s traditional advantages and increased the likelihood of a successful Chinese invasion.

The Porcupine Strategy

To adapt to China’s growing capabilities, military experts proposed a “Porcupine Strategy.” Rather than relying on large, expensive systems like fighter jets and ships, Taiwan would invest in smaller, mobile, and cost-effective weapons, such as portable anti-aircraft missiles, drones, and naval mines. These "quills" could slow down an invasion, making Taiwan a difficult target for China to conquer quickly and buying time for potential U.S. intervention.

By shifting to this strategy, Taiwan could focus on deterrence, ensuring that any invasion attempt would be too costly for China to undertake. For instance, instead of a $40 million fighter jet, Taiwan could purchase hundreds of Stinger missiles or Harpoon systems.

Challenges to Implementation

Despite U.S. pressure to adopt the Porcupine Strategy, Taiwan has continued to purchase advanced weapons like fighter jets and ships. This is partly because Taiwan faces daily provocations from China, including naval blockades and frequent incursions by Chinese aircraft. Advanced weaponry is viewed as essential for countering these threats.

Additionally, the Porcupine Strategy assumes U.S. intervention in the event of an invasion—something the U.S. has not explicitly guaranteed. This uncertainty forces Taiwan to prepare for the worst-case scenario, maintaining a diverse arsenal to defend itself independently if necessary.

Lessons from Ukraine

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine underscored the effectiveness of porcupine-style defense. Ukraine, armed with portable weapons supplied by the West, was able to mount a robust defense against a much larger military force. This reinforced the importance of smaller, versatile weapons for Taiwan’s defense strategy.

However, Taiwan’s limited defense budget remains a challenge. The U.S. has increased its influence over Taiwan’s military procurement, recently denying the purchase of MH-60R helicopters, arguing that the funds would be better spent on porcupine-style weapons.

The Path Forward

As China continues its military build-up, Taiwan faces the difficult task of balancing its defense needs with the realities of its budget and U.S. recommendations. The debate over advanced weapons versus porcupine-style systems reflects broader tensions between Taiwan’s immediate security concerns and long-term strategies. With no guarantee of U.S. intervention, Taiwan must navigate these challenges carefully, ensuring its survival in an increasingly hostile environment.