The Mistake in Kenya's 2022 Election Strategy: Underestimating Ruto's Power

Many of Raila Odinga’s male supporters acknowledge that there were mistakes made during the 2022 election, mistakes that could have led to different results. However, in my opinion, the most critical mistake—one that many have overlooked—is the failure to recognize that the real competition wasn’t about facing Ruto on equal terms. Instead, it was about trying to remove William Samoei Ruto from power, which proved far more difficult than many anticipated.

Ruto was already entrenched in government, having been part of the ruling establishment for a decade. From 2013 to 2016, he was the central driving force behind many government decisions, often controlling a significant portion of key appointments. Even when his influence within the government was formally clipped, his network remained intact, and he retained considerable power. This meant that the 2022 election wasn’t simply a contest against Ruto—it was a battle to remove him from power. And as history shows, removing a powerful figure like Ruto from office is no easy task, especially when he has solid backing from within the very government apparatus itself.

This brings me to a crucial lesson that was missed by President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga—one that can be traced back to a similar political maneuver in Kenya’s history. In 1982, President Daniel arap Moi orchestrated the removal of Charles Njonjo, one of the most powerful men in government at the time. However, Moi’s strategy went beyond just removing Njonjo from power; it involved dismantling his entire network and influence, which included using intelligence services to identify and remove Njonjo’s sympathizers both publicly and within government. This preemptive dismantling of a rival’s power structure ensured that his influence would not linger.

Fast forward to 2022, and Uhuru and Raila missed this critical piece of political wisdom. While their determination to ensure a free and fair election without government interference was commendable, they failed to recognize the depth of Ruto's influence within the government. Ruto had supporters within the government who were leaking critical information, a red flag that should have been addressed long before it spiraled out of control.

The true mistake was not understanding that this was not merely a contest against Ruto, but an attempt to dislodge him from power—a task that, as history proves, requires much more than simply running a fair election. And in the end, this underestimation proved costly.

Interestingly, after leaving office, Uhuru Kenyatta adopted similar tactics in dealing with Ruto's rise to power. This information, which I have detailed in my weekly intelligence briefings, shows that the political drama unfolding in Kenya continues to be a complex, ever-evolving thriller. Politics in Kenya is a constant rollercoaster, and to understand what’s truly going on, we must look beyond the surface and dig deeper into the strategies being employed by those in power.

In conclusion, Kenya’s political landscape is more like a thrilling movie than a simple election cycle. We must stay alert and aware of the deeper dynamics at play to fully grasp the forces shaping the future of our nation.