The Future of Kenyan Politics After Raila Odinga's Exit

 Raila Odinga, a towering figure in Kenyan politics for decades, is preparing to step down from his role as leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a party he founded. His exit marks the end of an era, and while many Kenyans feel betrayed and disillusioned by Odinga, it’s crucial to examine the consequences of his departure.

Despite the current political divide, where Odinga and the Kenyan public are at odds, his influence in the political landscape cannot be ignored. His leadership has shaped Kenya’s political environment for years, and as he exits, it raises the question of what happens next. Kenyans must understand the implications of his departure and how it will affect the country’s future.

In the 2017 presidential race, Odinga was central to President Uhuru Kenyatta’s strategy, particularly in Mount Kenya, where the campaign spread rumors to rally the population. The situation exposed the deep political divides and emphasized the need for strong leadership. However, with Odinga’s exit, the question remains: where will his supporters go?

Insiders suggest that it’s too early to discuss Odinga’s retirement and succession, with the African Union (AU) chairmanship election in February 2025 seen as a pivotal moment. Some even believe that Odinga won’t secure the AU position, despite widespread expectations. There’s a growing sentiment that those pushing for Odinga’s retirement might not even want him to hold the AU chairmanship.

The real surprise lies in where Odinga’s support base will go. Contrary to popular belief, much of it is expected to shift towards the G Movement, rather than other political factions. Many Kenyans, especially from the Luo community and the younger Gen Z generation, have already distanced themselves from Odinga, signaling a shift in political allegiance. ODM members, eager to inherit Odinga’s leadership, may find their efforts futile as the political tide changes.

For the current administration under President William Ruto, Odinga’s departure does not mean smooth sailing ahead. The political landscape remains volatile, and threats to Ruto’s presidency are far from over. Time will reveal how these developments unfold, but the reality is that Kenya’s political future is more uncertain than ever.

In closing, while many focus on Odinga’s potential African Union role and the future of ODM, the real issue is the shifting political dynamics and where the country’s support base will land. Only time will tell what lies ahead for Kenyan politics.