Raila Odinga’s Options for 2024: What Lies Ahead for Kenya?

 As Kenya approaches 2024 with numerous challenges, one lingering mystery continues to dominate political discourse: the future course of action for Raila Amolo Odinga. Many Kenyans are perplexed by his recent political moves, with questions such as: Is he stepping back? Is he planning another wave of protests? What is his strategy? Yesterday in Siaya County, Odinga addressed these concerns, assuring Kenyans that he will not remain silent in 2024. He emphasized his commitment to confronting the pressing issues facing the nation.

However, to understand what lies ahead, it’s essential to examine Odinga’s political trajectory since the disputed August 2022 elections.

The Silence After 2022 Elections

Following the announcement of the presidential election results, many observers expected widespread public outcry. Given that a significant portion of Kenyans believed Odinga's victory had been undermined, political analysts and even global intelligence agencies predicted a volatile response. Yet, contrary to expectations, the streets remained quiet.

Even Odinga himself surprised many by retreating into silence. Months passed—October, November, and December 2022 came and went—without any major statements or actions from him. It wasn’t until March 2023, more than six months later, that Odinga broke his silence by initiating protests under the banner of mandamanos (demonstrations).

A Pattern of Hesitation

These protests, initially promising, lost momentum unexpectedly. Twice, Odinga called off planned demonstrations despite widespread public support. The shift to bipartisan talks further puzzled Kenyans, especially those who saw the discussions as unproductive. Critics speculated that Odinga’s hands were tied, possibly by external pressures from influential global players, as his actions seemed uncharacteristic of his long-standing reputation as a resilient opposition leader.

Odinga’s Assurances for 2024

Yesterday, during a cultural event in Siaya County, Odinga hinted at a new strategy for 2024. He urged Kenyans to prepare for action but clarified that his approach would not involve street demonstrations. This has left many wondering: what are his viable options?

Possible Paths for Raila Odinga in 2024

1. Wait for the Government to Implode

Odinga could adopt a passive approach, relying on the internal divisions within the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) to destabilize the Ruto administration. The political infighting—ranging from conflicts between Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi to fierce competition among party insiders for government contracts—has exposed cracks in the administration.

As history has shown, a divided government often collapses under its own weight, and Odinga may be positioning himself to capitalize on such a scenario without taking direct action.

2. Civil Resistance Without Protests

Another possible path involves mobilizing non-violent resistance strategies, such as boycotts and civil disobedience. These methods could disrupt the government’s operations while avoiding the risks and casualties associated with street demonstrations.

3. Spontaneous Public Uprisings

While Odinga himself has ruled out protests, the worsening economic situation could ignite spontaneous mass demonstrations across the country. Rising unemployment, dwindling business opportunities, and the strain of the holiday season have left many Kenyans frustrated. If these grievances reach a tipping point, public unrest may erupt, with or without Odinga’s direct involvement.

The Outlook for the Ruto Administration

Regardless of Odinga’s actions, the challenges facing President William Ruto's administration are significant. Political infighting, economic hardships, and global uncertainties have left the government in a precarious position. Some analysts predict that Ruto's presidency may not survive beyond 2024, given the instability within UDA and the mounting public dissatisfaction.

The Road to Recovery

Even if the Ruto administration were to collapse, the task of rebuilding Kenya’s economy and governance will be monumental. Experts caution that recovery could take years, even under competent leadership, as the nation struggles to address the damage inflicted by the current administration.

Conclusion

As 2024 approaches, Raila Odinga faces a critical decision on how to navigate Kenya’s turbulent political landscape. Whether he chooses a passive approach, alternative forms of resistance, or spontaneous public action, one thing is clear: his influence will remain pivotal in shaping the country's future.

With Kenyans eager for change and the Ruto administration under increasing pressure, the coming year promises to be a defining chapter in the nation’s political history.