How NASA Endorsed Mandago To Frustrate Ruto

NASA supporters are overjoyed, and for good reason. Something unexpected happened at the recent NASA rally in Uasin Gishu: Raila Odinga, the NASA flag bearer, publicly endorsed Jackson Mandago for re-election as governor. This endorsement came as a surprise, considering Mandago is a Jubilee candidate. Even more surprising, other NASA principals, including Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang’ula, also endorsed Mandago.

To understand this development, let’s analyze it carefully.

Background on Mandago and Buzeki

Jackson Mandago, the incumbent governor of Uasin Gishu, is facing stiff competition from an independent candidate, Zedekiah Bundotich Kiprop, popularly known as Buzeki. Both Mandago and Buzeki are aligned with Jubilee, but Buzeki opted to run as an independent after losing in the Jubilee nominations. Uasin Gishu is considered a Jubilee stronghold, making this race particularly significant.

Five months ago, during a NASA rally in the county, Mandago welcomed the NASA team warmly. At the time, he was already at odds with Jubilee’s high command, accusing them of backing Buzeki. Mandago even issued a veiled threat: if the Jubilee leadership didn’t compel Buzeki to withdraw from the race, he would signal his supporters to vote for NASA in the presidential election. He claimed his community would monitor the first 100 votes and, if they sensed betrayal, they would shift allegiance entirely to NASA.

Mandago’s Current Struggles

Mandago has faced significant challenges in his re-election bid. While he secured the Jubilee nomination, Buzeki’s independent campaign has been well-funded and highly effective. Opinion polls suggest Buzeki is leading Mandago by more than 10 percentage points. This has left Mandago in a tough spot, forcing him to seek alternative strategies to secure his position.

The NASA-Mandago Alliance

Mandago’s recent alignment with NASA seems to be a calculated move. By securing NASA’s backing, Mandago is likely betting on a combination of NASA votes and his own community’s support to overcome Buzeki. Here’s how the math works:

1. Jubilee Votes: Mandago and Buzeki will split the Jubilee votes.

2. NASA Votes: With NASA’s endorsement, Mandago stands to gain nearly unanimous support from NASA voters in Uasin Gishu. Opposition supporters are typically very loyal and follow their leaders’ directives.

3. Ethnic Dynamics: Mandago, being a Nandi, will likely consolidate the Nandi vote. Additionally, Isaac Ruto, a NASA principal and governor of Bomet, represents the Kipsigis community, the largest Kalenjin sub-tribe. This could help Mandago secure votes from other NASA-aligned Kalenjin sub-tribes.

Can This Strategy Work?

Ground reports suggest that with NASA’s support, Mandago has a slight edge over Buzeki. However, the margin is narrow, and much depends on how voters respond in the coming days. It’s important to note that the Nandi community is known for being politically shrewd and unpredictable, so nothing is guaranteed.

Final Thoughts

Mandago’s alignment with NASA marks a significant shift in the political landscape of Uasin Gishu. While this alliance might be enough to secure his re-election, it’s too early to make bold predictions. Politics is dynamic, and in the final stretch, anything can happen.