NASA doesn't want you to know this

You, and other Kenyans, need to understand that a lot is happening on the political scene, much of which takes place behind closed doors. Most of it happens in back rooms, out of public view. What you see live or hear in the media is the result of decisions and deals already made in those back rooms. Politicians are constantly negotiating and strategizing in ways the public rarely sees.

This is important to note because many people listen to the news and interpret it at face value. That is a mistake. Remember, we are dealing with politicians, and they rarely reveal their true intentions, especially during election periods. Politicians will never tell you things that might alienate their supporters or make them unpopular. Instead, they focus on saying what they think their audience wants to hear.

For members of my exclusive Club 1999, however, this is not a mystery. They receive daily updates on what is happening behind the scenes in politics. They are no longer misled by public narratives or confused by surface-level media reports.

Right now, a lot is unfolding at a rapid pace because we are heading into a crucial election. According to me, what’s happening in the background is incredibly interesting. While opinion polls are a frequent topic of discussion, their significance is often exaggerated. People are losing focus on the real issue: voter registration. How many voters have registered in Candidate A’s stronghold? How many in Candidate B’s? How many of these registered voters are likely to vote for one candidate versus the other?

These are facts that no opinion poll can change. Voters in Central Province, for instance, will not suddenly wake up one day and decide to switch their support to another candidate’s policies. Similarly, voters in opposition strongholds will not randomly decide to back Jubilee's policies. Kenyan politics doesn’t work like that.

In Kenya, tribal affiliation heavily influences voting patterns. This is a reality that cannot be ignored, no matter how much media analysts try to compare Kenya to the U.S., where voting behaviors and political dynamics differ significantly. Kenyan voters largely align with tribal blocs, and this makes opinion polls unreliable.

Take, for example, the run-up to the 2007 elections. Who led most opinion polls at the time? Kalonzo Musyoka. Yet, when you analyzed the voter demographics and tribal strongholds, it became evident that these polls were misleading. Opinion polls in Kenya are best ignored because they fail to account for tribal voting patterns. If I were a presidential candidate, I wouldn’t waste time on them.

In my upcoming report for Club 1999, I will delve deeper into these issues. I’ll discuss the challenges facing the current president, his key advantages in the upcoming election, and what the defections from Jubilee really mean. I will also highlight why I believe the opposition is currently asleep. Their strategies and tactics seem out of touch with the political realities of Kenya.

For instance, some people view defections as a significant shift in political dynamics. However, defections often indicate desperation. Politicians crossing over to another party are usually seeking to repair their image or gain voters, not bringing their supporters with them. Understanding this dynamic is critical to making sense of the political landscape.