A Bird’s Eye View Of Kenyan Politics In The Months To Come

On the London eye high above London recently where you are able to see huge chunks of the city widely recognized as the financial capital of the world, I was reminded of the place where my father was born high up in the hills that used to be called the Iveti hills in Machakos. When you are coming down to Machakos town you can actually see very far. Far enough to tell that the car coming rounding the corner down there at high speed is bound to have a head on collision with the lorry approaching the same corner from the opposite direction. Those on the ground cannot see this, but from up there you are able to clearly see it all.

That is the view I have been trying to get of the currently chaotic Kenyan political landscape as I stayed away from penning anything in my beloved Kumekucha blog (because the truth is that I can make posts from anywhere in the world. Even the Sahara desert as long as I can get an internet connection). You see I hate to write any politics when I don’t have a bird’s eye view of what is really happening.

What I can tell you my dear friends is that I have emerged from this hiatus with a much clearer mind and with numerous clear ideas to make Kumekucha even better. Briefly on the subject of improvements in this blog, I will regularly do a news round up where I will link to other news sources online. Just like I did this morning to the disappointment of some readers here and the delight of our enemies who took the opportunity to declare the death and burial of Kumekucha (poleni sana, mambo bado).

But for today I want to talk about Martha Karuas bid for the presidency. The first thing is that it excites me very much. It is a sign that Kenyan politics is about to change and to change dramatically. Mainly because her politics are different from the old school politics everybody else is playing. Indeed she is a breath of much needed fresh air. Regulars here will know that I have a clear bias when it comes to choosing between a man and a woman in politics. I think history and the track record in Kenya clearly shows us that women make better leaders most of the time.

However I have a few serious problems with Ms Karua’s bid. Top on my list is the fact that she was a chief architect of the events of last December 29^th and thereabouts. She used her sharp legal mind to steer a ship called Mwai Kibaki safely through some sharp jutting rocks and right back into State House. Of course it was all at great cost to human life, not to mention financial cost to the country. I will say nothing further on that subject.

But back to my excitement. Karua’s effort will of course fail. Not because she is a woman. But because the strategy being used by her and her backers will not work in 2012. It is the same strategy that ODM used. Which means that we should expect many more declarations of intent in the months to come and then finally all these presidential candidates will declare one of their own “tosha.”

Time and again it has been proven that politics is too fluid and I will repeat again that the tactics of 2007 will NOT work in 2012. Incidentally I need to ask the million shilling question. Does the fact that everybody is adopting the tactics Raila used in 2007 mean that they are all telling us it was Raila who won those elections by a near land-slide? You tell me? Ama does it mean that they are adopting a loser’s strategy?

Finally I will say something about our beloved Prime Minister. Again this is NOT personal. Just pure cold political analysis. The truth of the matter is that immediately somebody gets into government in an environment where there is competitive politics (and NOT the mama na baba days of Kanu) it simply means that they are in the twilight years of their political careers. This is the situation with Raila. It is unlikely that Agwambo will garner the same support he received in 2007 and you can take that to the bank. I already feel the barbs flying through the air towards me but let me ask two simple questions before I take cover. Why is it that the Prime Minister has said nothing about the shoddy treatment meted out to Jacinta Mwatela the former deputy governor of the Central Bank? His silence has been way too loud. My second question is why is it that the Prime Minister was initially against a similar move made at NSSF against another woman only to backtrack a few days later and support his cabinet colleague? The answers to those questions are explosive to say the least and are published in my raw notes which will be released early next week.

News Round Up By Chris

It seems that the troubles of PNU are not ending soon as 8 MPs ditch PNU

Meanwhile Kimunya the former finance minister has taken to golf and winning golf tournaments

Did you know that originally the KICC was meant to be 7 storeys?

Now Mwatela's husband who is a politician speaks out